Abstract
In order to ensure the structural safety of a ship, the most severe sea states she is expected to encounter throughout her service life need to be given consideration. This is the reason why the maximum loads corresponding to such sea states are typically specified in classification society structural rules such as the Common Structural Rules (CSR) of the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS). The maximum loads used for the structural design of a ship can have a significant impact on not only her structural safety, but also her hull construction cost; therefore, it is very important that the loads be accurately estimated. The linear term of the maximum loads typically specified in some classification society rules is equivalent to a long-term predicted value with an exceedance probability of 10−8. Since the maximum loads specified in classification society rules such as the CSR were developed specifically for specific ship types, their effective application to other ship types may be somewhat limited.
Aim of our larger study is to develop a closed formula of long-term prediction for maximum loads. The formula has high accuracy and can be applied to any ship size and type. This paper focused on the heave acceleration and pitch angle, which are used for the calculation of internal loads and so on. A formula which takes into account such as the standard deviation of the hull response in irregular waves and the directional distribution of irregular waves was proposed. Main ship parameters such as ship length L, breadth B, draft d, block coefficient Cb, and water line area coefficient Cw were used for formulating the long-term prediction. The accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed formula were confirmed through various numerical calculations using a linear seakeeping analysis code developed by ClassNK. The calculation covers 154 ship models (77 existing ships × 2 loading conditions per ship).
Novel robust time series analysis for long-term and short-term prediction
