Probabilistic Inverse Simulation and Its Application in Vehicle Accident Reconstruction

2013 ◽  
Vol 135 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyun Zhang ◽  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Xiaoping Du
Keyword(s):  
Probability Density ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Accident Reconstruction ◽  
Direct Simulation ◽  
Maximum Probability ◽  
Inverse Simulation ◽  
Vehicle Accident ◽  
Simulation Output ◽  
Simulation Input ◽  
Input Variables

Inverse simulation is an inverse process of direct simulation. It determines unknown input variables of the direct simulation for a given set of simulation output variables. Uncertainties usually exist, making it difficult to solve inverse simulation problems. The objective of this research is to account for uncertainties in inverse simulation in order to produce high confidence in simulation results. The major approach is the use of the maximum probability density function (PDF), which determines not only unknown deterministic input variables but also the realizations of random input variables. Both types of variables are solved on the condition that the joint probability density of all the random variables is maximum. The proposed methodology is applied to a traffic accident reconstruction problem where the simulation output (accident consequences) is known and the simulation input (velocities of the vehicle at the beginning of crash) is sought.

Probabilistic Inverse Simulation and its Application in Vehicle Accident Reconstruction

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyun Zhang ◽  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Xiaoping Du
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Accident Reconstruction ◽  
Direct Simulation ◽  
Inverse Simulation ◽  
Vehicle Accident ◽  
Simulation Output ◽  
Simulation Input ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Joint Probability Density

Inverse simulation is an inverse process of direct simulation. It determines unknown input variables of the direct simulation for a given set of simulation output variables. Uncertainties usually exist, making it difficult to solve inverse simulation problems. The objective of this research is to account for uncertainties in inverse simulation in order to produce high confidence in simulation results. The major approach is the use of the maximum likelihood methodology, which determines not only unknown deterministic input variables but also the realizations of random input variables. Both types of variables are solved on the condition that the joint probability density of all the random variables is maximum. The proposed methodology is applied to a traffic accident reconstruction problem where the simulation output (accident consequences) is known and the simulation input (velocities of the vehicle at the beginning of crash) is sought.

A Reliability Approach to Inverse Simulation Under Uncertainty

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoping Du
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
High Efficiency ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Inverse Simulation ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Simulation Input ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Impact Problem

Inverse simulation is an inverse process of a direct simulation. During the process, the simulation input variables are identified for a given set of simulation output variables. Uncertainties such as random parameters may exist in engineering applications of inverse simulation. A reliability method is developed in this work to estimate the probability distributions of unknown simulation input. The First Order Reliability Method is employed and modified so that the inverse simulation is embedded within the reliability analysis algorithm. This treatment avoids the separate executions of reliability analysis and inverse simulation and consequently maintains high efficiency. In addition, the means and standard deviations of unknown input variables can also be obtained. A particle impact problem is presented to demonstrate the proposed method for inverse simulation under uncertainty.

Inverse Simulation Under Uncertainty by Optimization

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoping Du
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
High Efficiency ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Unknown Input ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Inverse Simulation ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Simulation Input ◽  
Input Variables

Inverse simulation is an inverse process of a direct simulation. During the process, unknown simulation input variables are identified for a given set of known simulation output variables. Uncertainties such as random parameters may exist in engineering applications of inverse simulation. An optimization method is developed in this work to estimate the probability distributions of unknown input variables. The first order reliability method is employed and modified so that the inverse simulation is embedded within the reliability analysis. This treatment avoids the separate executions of reliability analysis and inverse simulation and consequently maintains high efficiency. In addition, the means and standard deviations of the unknown input variables can also be obtained. A particle impact problem is presented to demonstrate the proposed method for inverse simulation under uncertainty.

scholarly journals The Impact of Probability Density Functions Assessment on Model Performance for Slope Stability Analysis

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 322
Author(s):  
Evelina Volpe ◽  
Luca Ciabatta ◽  
Diana Salciarini ◽  
Stefania Camici ◽  
Elisabetta Cattoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Density ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Probability Density Functions ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Density Functions ◽  
Umbria Region ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
The Impact

The development of forecasting models for the evaluation of potential slope instability after rainfall events represents an important issue for the scientific community. This topic has received considerable impetus due to the climate change effect on territories, as several studies demonstrate that an increase in global warming can significantly influence the landslide activity and stability conditions of natural and artificial slopes. A consolidated approach in evaluating rainfall-induced landslide hazard is based on the integration of rainfall forecasts and physically based (PB) predictive models through deterministic laws. However, considering the complex nature of the processes and the high variability of the random quantities involved, probabilistic approaches are recommended in order to obtain reliable predictions. A crucial aspect of the stochastic approach is represented by the definition of appropriate probability density functions (pdfs) to model the uncertainty of the input variables as this may have an important effect on the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF). The role of the pdf definition on reliability analysis is discussed through a comparison of PoF maps generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations performed over a study area located in the Umbria region of central Italy. The study revealed that the use of uniform pdfs for the random input variables, often considered when a detailed geotechnical characterization for the soil is not available, could be inappropriate.

scholarly journals Metamodels of a gas turbine powered marine propulsion system for simulation and diagnostic purposes

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Campora ◽  
M. Capelli ◽  
C. Cravero ◽  
R. Zaccone
Keyword(s):  
Gas Turbine ◽  
Response Surfaces ◽  
Propulsion System ◽  
Direct Simulation ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Simulation Code ◽  
Marine Propulsion ◽  
Performance Reduction ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Marine Propulsion System

The paper presents the application of artificial neural network for simulation and diagnostic purposes applied to a gas turbine powered marine propulsion plant. A simulation code for the propulsion system, developed by the authors, has been extended to take into account components degradation or malfunctioning with the addition of performance reduction coefficients. The above coefficients become input variables to the analysis method and define the system status at a given operating point. The simulator is used to generate databases needed to perform a variable selection analysis and to tune response surfaces for both direct (simulation) and inverse (diagnostic) purposes. The application of the methodology to the propulsion system of an existing frigate version demonstrate the potential of the approach.

scholarly journals Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 472
Author(s):  
Jue Lin-Ye ◽  
Manuel García-León ◽  
Vicente Gràcia ◽  
María Ortego ◽  
Piero Lionello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Density ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Event Duration ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Climate Patterns ◽  
Joint Probability Density

Storm surges are one of the main drivers for extreme flooding at the coastal areas. Such events can be characterized with the maximum level in an extreme storm surge event (surge peak), as well as the duration of the event. Surge projections come from a barotropic model for the 1950–2100 period, under a severe climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) at the northeastern Spanish coast. The relationship of extreme storm surges to three large-scale climate patterns was assessed: North Atlantic Oscillation ( N A O ), East Atlantic Pattern ( E A W R ), and Scandinavian Pattern ( S C ). The statistical model was built using two different strategies. In Strategy #1, the joint probability density was characterized by a moving-average series of stationary Archimedean copula, whereas in Strategy #2, the joint probability density was characterized by a non-stationary probit copula. The parameters of the marginal distribution and the copula were defined with generalized additive models. The analysis showed that the mean values of surge peak and event duration were constant and were independent of the proposed climate patterns. However, the values of N A O and S C influenced the threshold and the storminess of extreme events. According to Strategy #1, the variance of the surge peak and event duration increased with a fast shift of negative S C and a positive N A O , respectively. Alternatively, Strategy #2 showed that the variance of the surge peak increased with a positive E A W R . Both strategies coincided in that the joint dependence of the maximum surge level and the duration of extreme surges ranged from low to medium degree. Its mean value was stationary, and its variability was linked to the geographical location. Finally, Strategy #2 helped determine that this dependence increased with negative N A O .

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