Development of a tool to optimize economic and environmental feasibility of food waste chains

The Sustainable Development Goal 12.3 focuses on food and its inedible parts that exit the supply chain and thus are lost or wasted. This work addresses the food waste problem by presenting the development of a tool to design business models to reduce the production of food waste. This has been developed within the LIFE16 project iRexfo, coordinated by the University of Perugia. The tool aims at transferring the results obtained in a pilot region (Umbria, Italy) to 4 other regions in Europe. It has been coded in Python and has a graphical user interface (GUI) to insert inputs and display outputs. The GUI has been developed in FLASK and it is hosted in the website of PythonAnywhere. A case study on the application of the software is also presented, mainly based on data retrieved in the Umbria region, Italy. Together with economic analysis, also, environmental assessment is performed.

Seismic performance of strengthened masonry structures: actual behaviour of buildings in Norcia and Campi Alto during the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence

The structural response of unreinforced masonry buildings designed for gravity load only or with reference to obsolete seismic provisions is widely studied in the literature in order to define proper strengthening strategies and solution to mitigate the seismic risk. However, the critical analysis of the effectiveness of past used strengthening solution is still lacking. To fill such gap, the present study deals with the evaluation of the seismic performances of buildings in Campi Alto struck by the 2016 central Italy seismic sequence. The behaviour of buildings in Campi Alto is compared with that of buildings in Norcia. A large part of the buildings in these two towns was strengthened between 1980 and 2000 during the reconstruction processes following previous earthquakes which occurred in 1979 and 1997. However, the strengthened buildings in Norcia reported limited damage while a significant and widespread level of damage was detected on several strengthened buildings in the hamlet of Campi Alto. This study focuses on the buildings in Campi Alto with the aim of investigating on the reasons of their unsatisfactory behaviour. Thus, the seismic action experienced by buildings in Norcia and Campi Alto is initially compared and the main vulnerabilities of these buildings are also evaluated. Then, 20 projects of strengthening interventions submitted to the Civil Engineering Department of the Umbria Region between 1984 and 2012 have been herein analysed and discussed in order to focus on the effectiveness of the strengthening solution adopted in the past. The analyses of such projects and of the empirical damage detected after the 2016 seismic sequence is a unique opportunity to derive useful information for future applications.

Risk Characterization and Benefit–Risk Assessment of Brominated Flame Retardant in Commercially Exploited Freshwater Fishes and Crayfish of Lake Trasimeno, Italy

Among brominated flame retardants (BFRs), polybrominateddiphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) were the most widely used in past decades. BFRs not being chemically bonded to polymers means they can easily leach from the products into the environment and bioaccumulate. Humans are exposed to flame retardants mainly through food consumption, especially fish and fish products. In the present study, the occurrence of PBDEs and HBCDs in freshwater fishes and crayfish from Lake Trasimeno (Umbria region, central Italy) was assessed according to monitoring plans recommended by European competent authorities. The dietary exposure of the central Italian population to such molecules was calculated, and the risk characterization and the benefit–risk evaluation were also assessed. A total of 90 samples were analyzed by means of gas and liquid chromatography associated with triple quadrupole mass spectroscopy. A total of 51% of samples were found positive for at least one of the congeners; the most frequently found molecule was BDE-47. The data on dietary exposure ranged from 0.138 to 1.113 pg/kg body weight/day for ∑PBDE and from 0.805 to 0.868 pg/kg body weight/day for ∑HBCD. The data show no health risks for the central Italian population consuming freshwater fish products from Lake Trasimeno in relation to exposure to PBDE and HBCD.

Rural sustainability and food choice: the effect of territorial characteristics on the consumers’ preferences for organic lentils

The importance of pulse cultivation and consumption is recognized by the scientific community in terms of human nutrition, food security, biodiversity and a valid substitute for animal protein. In some marginal areas, pulse cultivation represents also a protection against the abandonment of agricultural land, the preservation of traditional landscape and the maintenance of natural environments, besides contributing to the safeguard of traditional gastronomy and culture.This study explores how some characteristics connected with rural sustainability, like the preservation of the traditional rural landscape, production area in a Natura 2000 Site of Community Importance (SCI) and EU quality labels (PDO and PGI), might influence organic consumers’ choice of lentils. Data were collected in the Umbria region (Italy) in 2014 by interviewing 213 consumers’ members of Organic Solidarity Purchase Groups (O-SPGs). The Discrete Choice Experiment methodology was used, and three different models (Multinomial Logit Model (MNL), Mixed Logit Model (RPL) and Endogenous Attribute Attendance (EAA)) were applied to verify the reliability of the estimates. Attribute non-attendance (ANA) behaviour was taken into account. Results reveal that the presence of ANA had an impact on both the relative importance of the estimated attributes and the magnitude of the estimated mean WTP. Therefore, this study suggests that WTP mean estimates should be considered with caution for marketing purposes if ANA is not considered. Looking at pulses, the results help to understand the importance in monetary terms of the relationship between lentil choice and rural sustainability.

A Modeling Study on Vaccination and Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Italy

From the end of 2020, different vaccines against COVID-19 have been approved, offering a glimmer of hope and relief worldwide. However, in late 2020, new cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started to re-surge, worsened by the emergence of highly infectious variants. To study this scenario, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed model with lockdown measures used in our previous work with the inclusion of new lineages and mass vaccination campaign. We estimate model parameters using the Bayesian method Conditional Robust Calibration in two case studies: Italy and the Umbria region, the Italian region being worse affected by the emergence of variants. We then use the model to explore the dynamics of COVID-19, given different vaccination paces and a policy of gradual reopening. Our findings confirm the higher reproduction number of Umbria and the increase of transmission parameters due to the presence of new variants. The results illustrate the importance of preserving population-wide interventions, especially during the beginning of vaccination. Finally, under the hypothesis of waning immunity, the predictions show that a seasonal vaccination with a constant rate would probably be necessary to control the epidemic.

The Impact of Probability Density Functions Assessment on Model Performance for Slope Stability Analysis

The development of forecasting models for the evaluation of potential slope instability after rainfall events represents an important issue for the scientific community. This topic has received considerable impetus due to the climate change effect on territories, as several studies demonstrate that an increase in global warming can significantly influence the landslide activity and stability conditions of natural and artificial slopes. A consolidated approach in evaluating rainfall-induced landslide hazard is based on the integration of rainfall forecasts and physically based (PB) predictive models through deterministic laws. However, considering the complex nature of the processes and the high variability of the random quantities involved, probabilistic approaches are recommended in order to obtain reliable predictions. A crucial aspect of the stochastic approach is represented by the definition of appropriate probability density functions (pdfs) to model the uncertainty of the input variables as this may have an important effect on the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF). The role of the pdf definition on reliability analysis is discussed through a comparison of PoF maps generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations performed over a study area located in the Umbria region of central Italy. The study revealed that the use of uniform pdfs for the random input variables, often considered when a detailed geotechnical characterization for the soil is not available, could be inappropriate.

The impact of Probability Density Functions Assessment on Model Performance for Slope Stability Analysis

The development of forecasting models for the evaluation of potential slope instability after rainfall event represents an important issue for the scientific community. This topic has received considerable impetus due to climate change effect on the territory [1, 2] as several studies demonstrate that the increase in global warming can significantly influence the landslide activity and stability conditions of natural and artificial slopes [3]. A consolidated approach in evaluating rainfall induced landslide hazard is based on the integration of rainfall forecasts and physically based (PB) predictive models through deterministic laws. However, considering the complex nature of the processes and the high variability of the random quantities involved, probabilistic approaches are recommended in order to obtain reliable predictions. A crucial aspect of the stochastic approach is represented by the definition of appropriate probability density functions (pdfs) to model the uncertainty of the input variables as this may have an important effect on the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF). The role of the pdf definition on reliability analysis is discussed through a comparison of PoF maps generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations performed over a study area located in the Umbria Region of central Italy.

National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) better predicts critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness than COVID-GRAM, a multi-centre study

Purpose Clinical scores to rapidly assess the severity illness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be considered of help for clinicians. Recently, a specific score (named COVID-GRAM) for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, based on a nationwide Chinese cohort, has been proposed. We routinely applied the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict critical COVID-19. Aim of this study is to compare NEWS2 and COVID-GRAM score. Methods We retrospectively analysed data of 121 COVID-19 patients admitted in two Clinics of Infectious Diseases in the Umbria region, Italy. The primary outcome was critical COVID-19 illness defined as admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Accuracy of the scores was evaluated with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Differences between scores were confirmed used Hanley–McNeil test. Results The NEWS2 AUROC curve measured 0.87 (standard error, SE 0.03; 95% CI 0.80–0.93; p < 0.0001). The COVID-GRAM score AUROC curve measured 0.77 (SE 0.04; 95% CI 0.68–0.85; p < 0.0001). Hanley–McNeil test showed that NEWS2 better predicted severe COVID-19 (Z = 2.03). Conclusions The NEWS2 showed superior accuracy to COVID-GRAM score for prediction of critical COVID-19 illness.

Seismic Performance of Strengthened Masonry Structures: Actual Behaviour of Buildings in Norcia and Campi Alto During the 2016 Central Italy Seismic Sequence

The structural response of unreinforced masonry buildings designed for gravity load only or with reference to obsolete seismic provisions is widely studied in the literature in order to define proper strengthening strategies and solution to mitigate the seismic risk. However, the critical analysis of the effectiveness of past used strengthening solution is still lacking. To fill such gap, the present study deals with the evaluation of the seismic performances of buildings in the historical centre of Norcia and Campi Alto struck by the 2016 central Italy seismic sequence. A large part of these buildings was strengthened between 1980 and 2000 during the reconstruction processes following previous earthquakes occurred in 1979 and 1997. The strengthened buildings in Norcia reported limited damage while a significant and widespread level of damage was detected on several strengthened buildings in the hamlet of Campi Alto. The study focuses on such latter aspect with the aim of investigating on the reasons of such unsatisfactory behaviour. Thus, a comparison between seismic action experienced by buildings in Norcia and Campi Alto is initially analysed along with the evaluation of the main vulnerabilities of these buildings. Then, 20 projects of strengthening interventions submitted to the Civil Engineering Department of the Umbria Region between 1984 and 2012 have been herein analysed and discussed in order to focus on the effectiveness of the strengthening solution adopted in the past. The analyses of such projects and of the empirical damage detected after the 2016 seismic sequence is a unique opportunity to derive useful information for future applications.