Real-time Prediction of Remaining Useful Life and Preventive Maintenance Strategy Based on Digital Twin

Author(s):  
Jinyan Guo ◽  
Zhaojun Yang ◽  
Chuanhai Chen ◽  
Wei Luo ◽  
Wei Hu

Abstract The functional parts of a machine tool determine its reliability level to a great extent. The failure prediction of the functional part is helpful to prepare the maintenance scheme in time, in order to ensure a stable manufacturing process and the required production quality. Due to the rise of digital twin (DT), which has the characteristics of virtual reality interaction and real-time mapping, a DT-based real-time prediction method of the remaining useful life (RUL) and preventive maintenance scheme is proposed in this study. In this method, a DT model of the manufacturing workshop is established based on real-time perceptual information obtained by the proposed acquisition method. Subsequently, the real-time RUL of the functional part is predicted by establishing a RUL prediction model based on the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion, which takes the working conditions and measurement errors into consideration. On this basis, the optimal preventive maintenance scheme can be determined and fed back to the manufacturing workshop, in order to guide the maintenance of relevant parts. Finally, an example case study is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

2018 ◽  
Vol 127 ◽  
pp. 452-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaogang Hu ◽  
Hui Li ◽  
Pingping Shi ◽  
Zhaosen Chai ◽  
Kun Wang ◽  
...  

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 4509-4517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-jin Tang ◽  
Xiao-song Guo ◽  
Chuan-qiang Yu ◽  
Zhi-jie Zhou ◽  
Zhao-fa Zhou ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Yu Zang ◽  
Wei Shangguan ◽  
Baigen Cai ◽  
Huasheng Wang ◽  
Michael. G. Pecht

Author(s):  
Zongyi Mu ◽  
Yan Ran ◽  
Genbao Zhang ◽  
Hongwei Wang ◽  
Xin Yang

Remaining useful life (RUL) is a crucial indictor to measure the performance degradation of machine tools. It directly affects the accuracy of maintenance decision-making, thus affecting operational reliability of machine tools. Currently, most RUL prediction methods are for the parts. However, due to the interaction among the parts, even RUL of all the parts cannot reflect the real RUL of the whole machine. Therefore, an RUL prediction method for the whole machine is needed. To predict RUL of the whole machine, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method with dynamic prediction objects based on meta-action theory. Firstly, machine tools are decomposed into the meta-action unit chains (MUCs) to obtain suitable prediction objects. Secondly, the machining precision unqualified rate (MPUR) control chart is used to conduct an out of control early warning for machine tools’ performance. At last, the Markov model is introduced to determine the prediction objects in next prediction and the Wiener degradation model is established to predict RUL of machine tools. According to the practical application, feasibility and effectiveness of the method is proved.


2011 ◽  
Vol 94-96 ◽  
pp. 38-42
Author(s):  
Qin Liu ◽  
Jian Min Xu

In order to improve the prediction precision of the short-term traffic flow, a prediction method of short-term traffic flow based on cloud model was proposed. The traffic flow was fit by cloud model. The history cloud and the present cloud were built by historical traffic flow and present traffic flow. The forecast cloud is produced by both clouds. Then, combining with the volume of the short-term traffic flow of an intersection in Guangzhou City, the model was calculated and simulated through programming. Max Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute percent Error (MAPE) were used to estimate the effect of prediction. The simulation results indicate that this prediction method is effective and advanced. The change of the historical and real time traffic flow is taken into account in this method. Because the short-term traffic flow is dealt with as a whole, the error of prediction is avoided. The prediction precision and real-time prediction are satisfied.


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