Uncertainty Quantification With Maximum Entropy Method for Fatigue Life Estimation
Abstract Use of high-fidelity fatigue models that incorporate not only material uncertainty but also part variability and operational uncertainties can improve the accuracy of predictive maintenance and thus decrease operational cost. However, due to the large number of computationally expensive cost function evaluations necessary, little work has been done to explore this field. In this research, the expected life probability distributions with low computational cost is estimated through a general statistical framework that applies Maximum Entropy Method (MEM), fractional statistical moments and Multiplicative Dimensional Reduction (M-DRM). The framework is tested on advanced models of a 6204 SKF ball bearing. The influence of critical part tolerances and load conditions on fatigue life with a probability density function with only 80 function evaluations is quantified in both a finite element analysis and a non-linear analytical model. The number of function evaluations is one order of magnitude lower than necessary for a comparable accuracy achieved by Monte Carlo simulation.