On the Application of Structural Reliability Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Gudfinnur Sigurdsson
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Engineering ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Design Analysis ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Code Calibration ◽  
Calculated Probability

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) is a useful tool in structural engineering. Uncertainty in input parameters and model uncertainties in the analysis predictions are explicitly modelled by random variables. With this methodology, the uncertainties involved are handled in a consistent and transparent way. Compared to a deterministic analysis, SRA provides improved insight in how the various uncertainties involved influence the results. The main results from SRA is the calculated probability of structural failure, but other useful results such as uncertainty importance factors and design points being the most likely combination of all variables at failure represent helpful information. The present paper illustrates some the features using SRA for two different types of application. The first application is the use of SRA as a tool for code calibration and the second shows the application of SRA to a problem where common practice is likely to be rather conservative and therefore leading to unacceptable results, but where the degree of conservatism is not known. Two examples are chosen to illustrate code calibration; i.e. hull girder ultimate limit state (ULS) for tankers and ULS for mooring design in the ULS for floating offshore vessels. Code calibration involves both SRA and design analysis following the code. It is shown how the design analysis can be modified in order to better reflect a chosen target reliability level across a selected set of test cases representative for what the code should cover. Fatigue of subsea wellhead systems is selected as an example of a special case when application of existing rules may lead to unsatisfactory results which are likely to be rather conservative. It is shown how results can be presented in terms of the accumulated probability of fatigue failure as a function of time. This may be a more suitable basis for decision making than a calculated fatigue life from a standard analysis. It is also illustrated how importance factors from the SRA can be used as guidance on how to prioritize effort in order to improve prediction of the fatigue damage. The present paper is not intended to be detailed in all input and analysis methodology, but draw the attention towards the possibilities and benefits of applying SRA in structural engineering, where the examples are used to illustrate this potential.

The Effect of Sloshing in Tanks on Motions and Hull Girder Responses of Damaged Vessels

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huirong Jia ◽  
Torgeir Moan
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Roll Motion ◽  
Multimodal Approach ◽  
Rectangular Shape ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Oil Tankers

The structural reliability analysis of damaged vessels has up to now commonly been investigated by neglecting the effect of sloshing. This paper deals with the effect of sloshing in tanks on motions and hull girder responses of oil tankers in various damage conditions and represents a part of a study to assess the effect of sloshing on hull girder failure of damaged vessels, The flooded tanks are assumed to have a of rectangular shape and linear multimodal approach is adopted to deal with sloshing. It is concluded that even though the effect of sloshing in tanks on the roll motion of vessels can be neglected in certain damage conditions, the effect of sloshing on the horizontal bending moment cannot be neglected, especially when resonance motion occurs.

First-Order Reliability Method for Structural Reliability Analysis in the Presence of Random and Interval Variables

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Umberto Alibrandi ◽  
C. G. Koh
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic ◽  
First Order Reliability Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Reliability Method

This paper presents a novel procedure based on first-order reliability method (FORM) for structural reliability analysis in the presence of random parameters and interval uncertain parameters. In the proposed formulation, the hybrid problem is reduced to standard reliability problems, where the limit state functions are defined only in terms of the random variables. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for hybrid reliability analysis (HRA) is presented, and it is shown that it requires a tremendous computational effort; FORM for HRA is more efficient but still demanding. The computational cost is significantly reduced through a simplified procedure, which gives good approximations of the design points, by requiring only three classical FORMs and one interval analysis (IA), developed herein through an optimization procedure. FORM for HRA and its simplified formulation achieve a much improved efficiency than MCS by several orders of magnitude, and it can thus be applied to real-world engineering problems. Representative examples of stochastic dynamic analysis and performance-based engineering are presented.

scholarly journals Structural Reliability Analysis of Limit State Functions With Multiple Design Points Using Evolutionary Strategies

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Barranco-Cicilia ◽  
◽  
Edison Castro-Prates de Lima ◽  
Luís Volnei Sudati-Sagrilo ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Evolutionary Strategies ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
State Functions

The application of Structural Reliability Analysis on hull girder ultimate strength of bulk carriers-a trial on Safety Level Approach

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daokun Zhang ◽  
Wenyong Tang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Ultimate Strength ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Structural Rules ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Trial Analysis ◽  
Bulk Carriers ◽  
Partial Safety Factors

The International Maritime Organization is developing the Goal Based Standard, in which the Safety Level Approach(SLA) is one of the two parallel ways forward focusing on deriving explicit and reasonable safety level. During the development of Safety Level Approach, the Structural Reliability Analysis(SRA) is recognized as one of the useful tools. The application of SRA on the calibration of partial safety factors for hull girder ultimate strength is so far a typical illustration, which could be very helpful for the application of Safety Level Approach on the structural Rules in the future. China Classification Society (CCS) carries out a trial analysis with co-operation of Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

Reliability-Based Design Criterion for TLP Tendons

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Barranco Cicilia ◽  
Edison Castro Prates de Lima ◽  
Lui´s Volnei Sudati Sagrilo
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Design Criterion ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Extreme Response ◽  
Load Effects ◽  
Partial Safety Factors ◽  
State Models

This paper presents a Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) criterion applied to the design of Tension Leg Platform (TLP) tendons in their intact condition. The design criterion considers the Ultimate Limit State (ULS) of any tendon section along its whole length taking into account both dynamic interactions of load effects and the statistics of its associated extreme response. The partial safety factors are calibrated through a long-term reliability-based methodology for the storm environmental conditions, like hurricanes and winter storms, in deep waters of the Campeche Bay, Mexico. In the reliability analysis, the uncertainties in the definition of load effects and analytic limit state models for calculation of tendon strength and randomness of material properties are included. The results show that the partial safety factors reflect both uncertainty content and the importance of the random variables in structural reliability analysis. When tendons are designed according to the developed LRFD criterion, a less scattered variation of reliability indexes is obtained for different tendon sections across a single or various TLP designs.

scholarly journals Structural Reliability Analysis of Ship Hulls Accounting for Collision or Grounding Damage

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branka Bužančić Primorac ◽  
Joško Parunov ◽  
C. Guedes Soares
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
State Equation ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Moment Capacity ◽  
Ship Hulls ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis

AbstractClassical structural reliability analysis of intact ship hulls is extended to the case of ships with collision or grounding damages. Still water load distribution and residual bending moment capacity are included as random variables in the limit state equation. The probability density functions of these random variables are defined based on random damage parameters given by the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organization, while the proposed reliability formulation is consistent with international recommendations and thus may be valuable in the development of rules for accidental limit states. The methodology is applied on an example of an Aframax oil tanker. The proposed approach captures in a rational way complex interaction of different pertinent variables influencing safety of damaged ship structure.

Reliability Studies on Timber Data from Nigerian Grown Iroko Tree (Chlorophora excelsa) as Bridge Beam Material

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 17-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.I. Aguwa ◽  
S. Sadiku
Keyword(s):  
Compressive Strength ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Strength Properties ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Analysis And Design ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Bridge Beams

This paper provides the results of structural reliability analysis carried out on the data of Nigerian grown Iroko tree (Chlorophora excelsa), to ascertain its structural performance as timber bridge beams. Five pieces of 50mm x 75mm x 3600mm of Nigerian grown Iroko hardwood were bought, seasoned naturally and 200 pieces of samples were prepared for determination of their strength properties, (which include bending strength parallel to grain, tensile strength parallel to grain, compressive strength parallel to grain, compressive strength perpendicular to grain and shear strength parallel to grain) at a moisture content of 18%, in accordance with the British Standard BS 373 of 1957. Statistical analysis was carried out using the strength properties for determination of mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variations, confidence limits and Chi-Square goodness of fits. Structural analysis and design of a timber bridge beam using the determined data from the Nigerian grown Iroko timber, in accordance with BS 5268 were carried out under the Ultimate Limit State of loading (ULSL). Reliability analysis was carried out to ascertain its level of safety using First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). Sensitivity analysis was also carried out by varying the depth of beam, imposed live load, breadth of the beam, unit weight of the Iroko timber, span of the beam as well as the end bearing length. The result revealed that the Nigerian grown Iroko timber is a satisfactory structural material for timber bridge beams at depth of 400mm, breadth of 150mm and span of 5000mm under the ULSL. The probabilities of failure of the Nigerian grown Iroko timber bridge beam in bending, shear, compression and deflection are respectively, under the specified conditions of loading.

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