calculated probability
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2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 23-35
Author(s):  
Hanan B. Matar ◽  
Sawsan S. Al-Zubaidi ◽  
Luma A. Al-Kindi

This paper is based on the application of the root cause analysis principle of diesel engine injector failure in diesels Haditha station. The maintenance of the diesel engine injector contains many problems that lead to the injector stopping; several reasons lead to such Problems. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is one of the most widely used methods in the industrial sector to perform reliability analysis of complex engineering systems. A fault tree is a logical representation of the relationship of primary/basic events that lead to a given undesirable event (i.e., top event). This research aims to present the (FTA) technology and how to use it in analyzing the causes of problems that lead to the injector stop working, and how to calculate the probability of occurrence of such problems. Implementation of FTA based on the probabilities of the causes under the top event and canalization lead to the calculated probability value (0.80). The plant management can define a specific plan to reduce these problems, because failure of an important engine part (injector) with such a large value leads to long downtime hours compared to operating hours.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2131 (2) ◽  
pp. 022029
Author(s):  
Yu P Manshin ◽  
E Yu Manshina

Abstract Sufficient safety of the parts, which determines the safety of the system specified by the technical assignment, is the necessary quality of the project, the subject of the design engineer’s attention and the customer’s requirement. An extensive task is the collection of data for iterative refinement of the resource for project details in a probabilistic aspect. It can be significantly reduced when using approximate methods for estimating the resource at intermediate stages of refining the project to the required resource with a calculated probability of failure-free operation. Thus, by the analysis of dimensionless relations of parameters of models of fatigue damage development, it is possible to obtain tools of numerical estimation of technological and constructive techniques of increase of a resource of details and their rational combination. The paper deals with the numerical measures of various directions of upgrading the fatigue life of the parts, derived from the dimensionless relations of the parameters of fatigue damage development models.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e542
Author(s):  
Todd C. Pataky ◽  
Masahide Yagi ◽  
Noriaki Ichihashi ◽  
Philip G. Cox

This paper proposes a computational framework for automated, landmark-free hypothesis testing of 2D contour shapes (i.e., shape outlines), and implements one realization of that framework. The proposed framework consists of point set registration, point correspondence determination, and parametric full-shape hypothesis testing. The results are calculated quickly (<2 s), yield morphologically rich detail in an easy-to-understand visualization, and are complimented by parametrically (or nonparametrically) calculated probability values. These probability values represent the likelihood that, in the absence of a true shape effect, smooth, random Gaussian shape changes would yield an effect as large as the observed one. This proposed framework nevertheless possesses a number of limitations, including sensitivity to algorithm parameters. As a number of algorithms and algorithm parameters could be substituted at each stage in the proposed data processing chain, sensitivity analysis would be necessary for robust statistical conclusions. In this paper, the proposed technique is applied to nine public datasets using a two-sample design, and an ANCOVA design is then applied to a synthetic dataset to demonstrate how the proposed method generalizes to the family of classical hypothesis tests. Extension to the analysis of 3D shapes is discussed.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Ezquerro ◽  
Gerardo Herrera-García ◽  
Roberto Tomás ◽  
Marta Béjar-Pizarro ◽  
Juan López-Vinielles ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;Land subsidence associated with groundwater withdrawal is often an underestimated geological hazard that may produce important damage to buildings and infrastructure, change flood risk in some areas, and cause loss of groundwater storage capacity. In the current framework of global climate change, the increasing agricultural and urban use of groundwater resources is a growing problem, especially in arid and semiarid areas. Because monitoring subsidence in these areas is important for management, but early detection is difficult due to slow displacement rates, we developed global groundwater induced land subsidence probability maps.&amp;#160; Global land subsidence probability was calculated by applying statistical methods to a set of susceptible geographical, environmental and geological properties based on known, documented subsidence affected areas. Highest values of subsidence probability are concentrated over flat areas composed of unconsolidated sediments, and in agricultural or urban areas subject to prolonged dry periods. Including water scarcity and groundwater use data resulted in an estimation of a proxy land subsidence hazard. Calculated probability does not imply that all the high value areas are currently incurring land subsidence, but it can alert policymakers and groundwater managers to areas that have potential exposure to subsidence hazards and warrant monitoring. The complete results of this work are published in Science Policy Forum section under the title &amp;#8220;Mapping the global threat of land subsidence&amp;#8221; DOI: 10.1126/science.abb8549&lt;/p&gt;


2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-44
Author(s):  
Whitney Trainor-Guitton ◽  
Leo Turon ◽  
Dominique Dubucq

The Python Earth Engine application programming interface (API) provides a new open-source ecosphere for testing hydrocarbon detection algorithms on large volumes of images curated with the Google Earth Engine. We specifically demonstrate the Python Earth Engine API by calculating three hydrocarbon indices: fluorescence, rotation absorption, and normalized fluorescence. The Python Earth Engine API provides an ideal environment for testing these indices with varied oil seeps and spills by (1) removing barriers of proprietary software formats and (2) providing an extensive library of data analysis tools (e.g., Pandas and Seaborn) and classification algorithms (e.g., Scikit-learn and TensorFlow). Our results demonstrate end-member cases in which fluorescence and normalized fluorescence indices of seawater and oil are statistically similar and different. As expected, predictive classification is more effective and the calculated probability of oil is more accurate for scenarios in which seawater and oil are well separated in the fluorescence space.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-53
Author(s):  
Dmytro Nosal ◽  
Serhii Konovalov ◽  
Volodymyr Shevchenko

Purpose. Establishing regularities of change in the injury probability and development of a methodology for determining the injury probability of coal mine workers to improve the occupational health and safety (OSH) management system efficiency. Methods. Methods of mathematical statistics and mathematical analysis were used in the data processing of coal mine workers’ injuries; probability theory and risk theory were applied for setting equations to determine the injury probability; correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the density and nature of the dependences reflecting changes in the injury probability. Findings. A calculator has been developed to compute the injury probability of an employee. This instrument distributes the probability into three “zones”: high probability – “red zone”, medium probability – “yellow zone”, and low probability – “green zone”. The injury probability for all employees of the mine administration was calculated. It was found that the clo-sest relationship between the number of injuries and the calculated probability is observed for mining sites (medium probability) and for tunneling sites (high probability). For employees with a calculated high injury probability, in most cases, the causes of injury were objective and less dependent on employees themselves. For employees with a medium probability, the causes independent of and dependent on employees were approximately equally correlated. In the case of employees with a low probability, the main reasons were subjective – dependent on the employees themselves. For employees in the main operational sites (mining and tunneling), the cause of injury is directly related to the specifics of the production operations performed: the presence of loose space. Originality. For the first time, relationships were determined between the injury probability and the profession. We also established relationships between experience at the enterprise, age, marital status of an employee and the injury causes, as well as between the actual number of injuries and the calculated injury probability. Practical implications. A method for determining the injury probability of coal mine workers has been developed and implemented. The ways of improving the methods for calculating the injury probability are determined.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Dimitri Rochman ◽  
Mathieu Hursin ◽  
Alexander Vasiliev ◽  
Hakim Ferroukhi

The impact of the H in H2O thermal scattering data are calculated for burnup quantities, considering models of a UO2 pincell with DRAGON and SERPENT. The Total Monte Carlo method is applied, where the CAB model parameters are randomly varied to produce sampled (random) LEAPR input files for NJOY. A large number of burnup calculations is then performed, based on the random thermal scattering data. It is found that the impact on k∞ is relatively small (less than 35 pcm), as for nuclide inventory (less than 1% at 50 MWd/kgU) and for decay heat (less than 0.4%). It is also observed that the calculated probability density functions indicate strong non-linear effects.


Author(s):  
Ayumi Saruwatari ◽  
Yasunori Watanabe

In this study, we provide a probabilistic assessment of storm surges on the basis of meteorological features of past explosive cyclones classified in the three evolution types through computational experiments. Three-dimensional ocean current computations were performed to obtain local sea-level rise along the coasts of Japan and Eurasia for cyclones observed in the past two decades. The vulnerability of local coasts and disaster risks are discussed in relation to the calculated probability of sea-level rise due to potential storm surges.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/D8jg4jwK858


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 695
Author(s):  
Yang Zhang ◽  
Weicheng Wu ◽  
Yaozu Qin ◽  
Ziyu Lin ◽  
Guiliang Zhang ◽  
...  

Landslide hazards affect the security of human life and property. Mapping the spatial distribution of landslide hazard risk is critical for decision-makers to implement disaster prevention measures. This study aimed to predict and zone landslide hazard risk, using Guixi County in eastern Jiangxi, China, as an example. An integrated dataset composed of 21 geo-information layers, including lithology, rainfall, altitude, slope, distances to faults, roads and rivers, and thickness of the weathering crust, was used to achieve the aim. Non-digital layers were digitized and assigned weights based on their landslide propensity. Landslide locations and non-risk zones (flat areas) were both vectorized as polygons and randomly divided into two groups to create a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). Using this training set, the Random Forests (RF) algorithm, which is known for its accurate prediction, was applied to the integrated dataset for risk modeling. The results were assessed against the validation set. Overall accuracy of 91.23% and Kappa Coefficient of 0.82 were obtained. The calculated probability for each pixel was consequently graded into different zones for risk mapping. Hence, we conclude that landslide risk zoning using the RF algorithm can serve as a pertinent reference for local government in their disaster prevention and early warning measures.


Author(s):  
Andi Tarlis ◽  
Muslich Al-Dinsaadi ◽  
Muhammad Dayyan

The leadership attitude applied by managers in leading institutions in bank X has a huge influence on the success of these banking institutions in facing challenges that arise. This makes the leader of bank X plays a key role in formulating the company's strategy, so that its role will affect the company. The formulation of the problem in this study is whether the Bank X Branch Y Leadership Style Affects Employee Performance. How much Bank X Branch Y Leadership Style Affects Employee Performance. This research is a type of quantitative research. The method used in this study is a survey method, which is a method of collecting data by taking samples from the population and using a questionnaire as the main data collection instrument distributed by researchers. The results showed that the leadership style obtained a value of t count 4.792 (positive) that is influential and the calculated probability value 0.000 <0.05 probability determined, means significant. The R-Square Determination Coefficient value is 0.377 which means that 37.7% of the variation in value of employee performance is determined by the leadership style variable. While the rest (100% - 37.7% = 62.3%) are other variables not included in the equation model. Keywords: Leadership Style and Employee Performance.   Abstrak Sikap kepemimpinan yang di terapkan manajer dalam memimpin lembaga di bank X mempunyai pengaruh yang sangat besar dalam keberhasilan lembaga perbankan tersebut dalam menghadapi tantangan yang muncul. Hal ini menjadikan pemimpin bank X memegang peranan kunci dalam merumuskan strategi perusahaan, sehingga perannya akan mempengaruhi perusahaan tersebut. Rumusan masalah dalam penelitian ini adalah apakah Gaya Kepemimpinan Bank X Cabang Y Berpengaruh Terhadap Kinerja Karyawan. Seberapa besar Gaya Kepemimpinan Bank X Cabang Y Berpengaruh Terhadap Kinerja Karyawan. Penelitian ini termasuk jenis penelitian kuantitatif. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode survey, yaitu metode pengumpulan data dengan mengambil sampel dari populasi dan menggunakan kuesioner sebagai instrument pengumpulan data utama yang disebarkan peneliti.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa   Gaya kepemimpinan memperoleh nilai t hitung 4,792 (positif) yaitu berpengaruh dan nilai probabilitas yang dihitung 0.000 < 0.05 probabilitas yang ditetapkan, berarti signifikan. Nilai Koefisien Determinasi R-Square sebesar 0.377 yang berarti bahwa 37,7% variasi nilai dari kinerja karyawan ditentukan oleh variabel gaya kepemimpinan. Sedangkan sisanya (100% - 37,7% = 62,3%) adalah variabel lain yang tidak dimasukkan dalam model persamaan tersebut. Kata kunci : Gaya Kepemimpinan dan Kinerja Karyawan.


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