Probabilistic seismic stability analysis — a case study
A previously developed model is used to provide a probabilistic seismic stability analysis for a natural slope located near Slingerlands, New York. The safety of the slope is measured in terms of its probability of failure rather than the customary factor of safety.Three types of possible earthquake sources are investigated, namely, a point, a line, and an area source. The dependence on significant seismic parameters of the probability of failure of the slope is examined and the results are presented in a number of graphs and tables.On the basis of the results obtained in this study, it is concluded that (a) the present model is useful in assessing the reliability of soil slopes under both static and seismic conditions; and (b) the probability of failure of a soil slope is greatly affected by the type of earthquake source involved and the values of the seismic parameters that are associated with it.