Models of Intermediate Complexity and ENSO Prediction

2021 ◽  
pp. 29-52
Keyword(s):  
Enso Prediction ◽  
Intermediate Complexity

scholarly journals An Analysis of the Temporal Evolution of ENSO Prediction Skill in the Context of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Observing System

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (8) ◽  
pp. 3204-3213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Mingyue Chen ◽  
Yan Xue ◽  
David Behringer
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Enso Prediction ◽  
Subsurface Ocean ◽  
Ocean Observations

Abstract Subsurface ocean observations in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean dramatically increased after the 1990s because of the completion of the TAO moored array and a steady increase in Argo floats. In this analysis the question explored is whether a steady increase in ocean observations can be discerned in improvements in skill of predicting sea surface temperature (SST) variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? The analysis is based on the time evolution of skill of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific since 1982 based on a seasonal prediction system. It is found that for forecasts up to a 6-month lead time, a clear fingerprint of increases in subsurface ocean observations is not readily apparent in the time evolution of prediction skill that is dominated much more by the signal-to-noise consideration of SSTs to be predicted. Finding no clear relationship between an increase in ocean observations and prediction skill of SSTs, various possibilities for why it may be so are discussed. This discussion is to motivate further exploration on the question of the tropical Pacific observing system, its influence on the skill of ENSO prediction, and the capabilities of the current generation of coupled models and ocean data assimilation systems to take advantage of ocean observations.

The Importance of Central Pacific Meridional Heat Advection to the Development of ENSO

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-59
Author(s):  
Caihong Wen ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Michelle L’ Heureux ◽  
Yan Xue ◽  
Emily Becker
Keyword(s):  
Water Volume ◽  
Primary Role ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Enso Prediction ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Ocean Reanalyses ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline ◽  
Warm Water Volume ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe relationship between the Warm Water Volume (WWV) ENSO precursor and ENSO SST weakened substantially after ~2000, coinciding with a degradation in dynamical model ENSO prediction skill. It is important to understand the drivers of the equatorial thermocline temperature variations and their linkage to ENSO onsets. In this study, a set of ocean reanalyses is employed to assess factors responsible for the variation of the equatorial Pacific Ocean thermocline during 1982-2019. Off-equatorial thermocline temperature anomalies carried equatorward by the mean meridional currents associated with Pacific Tropical Cells are shown to play an important role in modulating the central equatorial thermocline variations, which is rarely discussed in the literature. Further, ENSO events are delineated into two groups based on precursor mechanisms: the western equatorial type (WEP) ENSO, when the central equatorial thermocline is mainly influenced by the zonal propagation of anomalies from the western Pacific, and the off-equatorial central Pacific (OCP) ENSO, when off-equatorial central thermocline anomalies play the primary role. WWV is found to precede all WEP ENSO by 6-9 months, while the correlation is substantially lower for OCP ENSO events. In contrast, the central tropical Pacific (CTP) precursor, which includes off-equatorial thermocline signals, has a very robust lead correlation with the OCP ENSO. Most OCP ENSO events are found to follow the same ENSO conditions, and the number of OCP ENSO increases substantially since the 21st century. These results highlight the importance of monitoring off-equatorial subsurface preconditions for ENSO prediction and to understand multi-year ENSO.

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