Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5

Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.

Diverse Inter-Annual Variations of Winter Siberian High and Link With Eurasian Snow in Observation and BCC-CSM2-MR Coupled Model Simulation

An observational study illustrates that three distinct modes of winter Siberian high variability exist in observations at the inter-annual time scale. In this paper, we compare the connection between these diverse Siberian high variation modes with pre-autumn and simultaneous Eurasian snow cover in an observation and BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate model run under pre-industrial conditions from the CMIP6 project. Our analyses indicate that the inter-annual variation of observed Siberian high modes do have a connection with pre-autumn and simultaneous Eurasian snow cover anomalies, but the BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate model does not capture the observed diverse Eurasian snow–Siberian high relationships well. The BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate model can partly reproduce the observed Siberian high variation modes, but fail to capture the spatial distribution and statistics of boreal fall and winter Eurasian snowpack, which is a key facet of simulated diverse Siberian high variability irrespective of the influence of Eurasian snow cover.

Assessing the impact of suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability in a coupled climate model

The Southern Ocean exerts a strong influence on global climate, regulating the storage and transport of heat, freshwater and carbon throughout the world’s oceans. While the majority of previous studies focus on how wind changes influence Southern Ocean circulation patterns, here we set out to explore potential feedbacks from the ocean to the atmosphere. To isolate the role of oceanic variability on Southern Hemisphere climate, we perform coupled climate model experiments in which Southern Ocean variability is suppressed by restoring sea surface temperatures (SST) over 40°–65°S to the model’s monthly mean climatology. We find that suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability does not impact the Southern Annular Mode, suggesting air–sea feedbacks do not play an important role in the persistence of the Southern Annular Mode in our model. Suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability does lead to robust mean-state changes in SST and sea ice. Changes in mixed layer processes and convection associated with the SST restoring lead to SST warming and a sea ice decline in southern high latitudes, and SST cooling in midlatitudes. These results highlight the impact non-linear processes can have on a model’s mean state, and the need to consider these when performing simulations of the Southern Ocean.

The impacts of cloud-radiative changes on poleward atmospheric and oceanic energy transport in a warmer climate

Based on theory and climate model experiments, previous studies suggest most of the uncertainties in projected future changes in meridional energy transport and zonal mean surface temperature can be attributed to cloud feedback. To investigate how radiative and dynamical adjustments modify the influence of cloud-radiative changes on energy transport, this study applies a cloud-locking technique in a fully-coupled climate model, CESM. Under global warming, the impacts of cloud-radiative changes on the meridional energy transport are asymmetric in the two hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, the cloud-radiative changes have little impact on energy transport, because 89% of the cloud-induced heating is balanced locally by increasing outgoing longwave radiation. In the Southern Hemisphere, on the other hand, cloud-induced dynamical changes in the atmosphere and the ocean cause enhanced poleward energy transport, accounting for most of the increase in energy transport under warming. Our experiments highlight that the local longwave radiation adjustment induced by temperature variation can partially offset the impacts of cloud-radiative changes on energy transport, making the estimated impacts smaller than those obtained from directly integrating cloud-radiative changes in previous studies. It is also demonstrated that the cloud-radiative impacts on temperature and energy transport can be significantly modulated by the oceanic circulation, suggesting the necessity of considering atmospheric-oceanic coupling when estimating the impacts of cloud-radiative changes on the climate system.

A Realistic Greenland Ice Sheet and Surrounding Glaciers and Ice Caps Melting in a Coupled Climate Model

Greenland ice sheet experienced an intensive melting in the last century, especially in the 1920s and over the last decades. The supplementary input into the ocean could disrupt the freshwater budget of the North Atlantic. Simultaneously, some signs of a recent weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have been reported. In order to better understand the possible impact of the increasing melting on the North Atlantic circulation, salinity and temperature trends, we construct an observation-based estimate of the freshwater fluxes spanning from 1840 to 2014. The estimate is based on runoff fluxes coming from Greenland ice sheet and surrounding glaciers and ice caps. Input from iceberg melting is also included and spatially distributed over the North Atlantic following an observed climatology. We force a set of historical simulations of the IPSL-CM6A-LR coupled climate model with this reconstruction from 1920 to 2014. The ten-member ensemble mean displays freshened and cooled waters around Greenland, which spread in the subpolar gyre, and then towards the subtropical gyre and the Nordic Seas. Over the whole period, the convection is reduced in the Labrador and Nordic Seas, while it is slightly enhanced in the Irminger Sea, and the AMOC is weakened by 0.32±0.35 Sv at 26°N. The multi-decadal trend of the North Atlantic surface temperature obtained with the additional freshwater forcing is slightly closer to observations than in standard historical simulations, although the two trends are only different at the 90% confidence level. Slight improvement of the Root Mean Square Error with respect to observations in the subpolar gyre region suggests that part of the surface temperature variability over the recent decades may have been forced by the release of freshwater from Greenland and surrounding regions since the 1920s. Finally, we highlight that the AMOC decrease due to Greenland melting remains modest in these simulations and can only explain a very small amount of the 3±1 Sv weakening suggested in a recent study.

Arctic sea ice sensitivity to lateral melting representation in a coupled climate model

The melting of sea ice floes from the edges (lateral melting) results in open water formation and subsequently increases absorption of solar shortwave energy. However, lateral melt plays a small role in the sea ice mass budget in both hemispheres in most climate models (Keen et al., 2020). This is likely influenced by simple parameterizations of this process in sea ice models that are constrained by limited observations. Here we use a coupled climate model (CESM2.0) to assess the sensitivity of modeled sea ice state to the lateral melt parameterization. The results show that sea ice is sensitive both to the parameters determining the effective lateral melt rate, as well as the nuances in how lateral melting is applied to the ice pack. Increasing the lateral melt rate within the range of reasonable values is largely compensated by decreases in the basal melt rate, but can still result in a significant decrease in sea ice concentration and thickness, particularly in the marginal ice zone. We suggest that it is important to consider the efficiency of melt processes at forming open water, which drives the majority of the ice-albedo feedback. Melt processes are more efficient at forming open water in thinner ice scenarios (as we are likely to see in the future), suggesting the importance of well representing thermodynamic evolution. Revisiting model parameterizations of lateral melting with observations will require finding new ways to represent important physical processes.

A centennial-scale Arctic - North Atlantic recharge oscillator in a coupled climate model

<p>In global climate models, low-frequency natural variability related to the Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation is a common behaviour. Such intrinsic climate variability is a potential source of decadal climate predictability. However, over longer term scenario simulations, this natural variability becomes a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we document a large and sustained centennial variability in the 3500-year pre-industrial control run of the CNRM-CM6 coupled climate model which is driven by the North Atlantic ocean, and more specifically its meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We propose a new AMOC dynamical decomposition highlighting the dominant role of mid-depth density anomalies at the western boundary as the driver of this centennial variability. We relate such density variability to deep convection and overflows in the western subpolar gyre, themselves controlled by and intense salinity variability of the upper layers. Finally, we show that such salinity variability is the result of periodic freshwater recharge and descharge events from the Arctic Ocean, themselves triggered by stochastic atmospheric forcing.</p>

Assessment of Météo-France current seasonal forecasting system S7 and outlook on the upcoming S8

<p>In the framework of the EU <span>C</span><span>opernicus</span> <span>Climate Change Service </span><span>(</span>C3S) program, a new coupled system has been developed at Météo-France (MF) to carry out seasonal forecasts at a 7-month range. This system (called S7) is in operation in real time since October 2019. S7 is based upon the MF coupled climate model CNRM-CM6 used for CMIP6 simulations, in its high resolution configuration: ARPEGE-Climat (Tl359-0.5° l91, including different tuning choices for the physics), NEMO 3.6 (0.25° l75) and the OASIS coupler. The aim of this presentation is twofold.</p><p>First, an assessment of S7 performance will be presented in terms of biases, and both deterministic and probabilistic predictability scores. A comparison with the earlier MF system and the current ECMWF system will be shown.</p><p>Second, incremental updates from S7 to S8, to be in operation in June 2021, will be presented and assessed versus S7. The upgrade includes a larger atmospheric resolution from l91 to l137, together with a coupled initialization strategy to replace the earlier independent atmospheric and oceanic initialization.</p>