REGIME SWITCHING TERM STRUCTURE MODEL UNDER PARTIAL INFORMATION

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (02) ◽  
pp. 265-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
HIDENORI FUTAMI
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Regime Shift ◽  
Partial Information ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Full Information ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
The Interest Rate

In this study, we attempt to calculate the term structure of the interest rate under partial information using a model in which the mean reversion level of the short rate changes in accordance with a regime shift in the economy. Under partial information, an investor observes the history of only the short rate and not a regime shift; hence, calculating the term structure of the interest rate is reduced to the problem of filtering the current regime from observable short rates. Therefore, we calculate it using the filtering theory that estimates a stochastic process from noisy observations, and investigate the effects of the regime shift under partial information on the market price of risk and the volatility of a bond price compared with those under full information, in which the regime is assumed to be observable. We find that, under partial information, the regime-shift risk converts into the diffusion risk. As a result, we find that both the market price of diffusion risk and the volatility of a bond price under partial information become stochastic, even though these under full information are constant.

AN ALTERNATIVE INTEREST RATE TERM STRUCTURE MODEL

2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (06) ◽  
pp. 717-735 ◽  
Author(s):  
ECKHARD PLATEN
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Forward Rate ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Forward Rates ◽  
Consistent Price System ◽  
Interest Rate Term Structure ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Total Market

This paper proposes an alternative approach to the modeling of the interest rate term structure. It suggests that the total market price for risk is an important factor that has to be modeled carefully. The growth optimal portfolio, which is characterized by this factor, is used as reference unit or benchmark for obtaining a consistent price system. Benchmarked derivative prices are taken as conditional expectations of future benchmarked prices under the real world probability measure. The inverse of the squared total market price for risk is modeled as a square root process and shown to influence the medium and long term forward rates. With constant parameters and constant short rate the model already generates a hump shaped mean for the forward rate curve and other empirical features typically observed.

A Consumption Based Term Structure Model w ith Habit Utility

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 484-496
Author(s):  
Jun Lou ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Bond Risk Premia ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Bond Risk

This paper proposes a term structure of interest rates model that modifies and extends the Campbell and Cochrane (1999) surplus consumption framework. The distinguishing contributions are tractable, continuous-time analytical solutions for the term structure of interest rate generating a realistic upward sloping yield curve. Despite the focus on the term structure, the model matches plausible equity quantities. For the interest rate, the model is able to account for the moments of bond yields at numerous maturities and produce countercyclical bond risk premia as seen in the data. Moreover, the model captures reasonable time series fluctuation on real interest rates. However, the model has difficulties reproducing empirical deviations from the expectations hypothesis.

scholarly journals VALUATION OF GUARANTEED ANNUITY OPTIONS IN AFFINE TERM STRUCTURE MODELS

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (02) ◽  
pp. 363-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHI CHIU CHU ◽  
YUE KUEN KWOK
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Analytic Approximation ◽  
Approximation Methods ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Stochastic Duration ◽  
Payoff Structure ◽  
Interest Rate Term Structure ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The One

We propose three analytic approximation methods for numerical valuation of the guaranteed annuity options in deferred annuity pension policies. The approximation methods include the stochastic duration approach, Edgeworth expansion, and analytic approximation in affine diffusions. The payoff structure in the annuity policies is similar to a quanto call option written on a coupon-bearing bond. To circumvent the limitations of the one-factor interest rate model, we model the interest rate dynamics by a two-factor affine interest rate term structure model. The numerical accuracy and the computational efficiency of these approximation methods are analyzed. We also investigate the value sensitivity of the guaranteed annuity option with respect to different parameters in the pricing model.

Stochastic volatility asymptotics of defaultable interest rate derivatives under a quadratic Gaussian model

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750003
Author(s):  
Ji-Hun Yoon ◽  
Jeong-Hoon Kim ◽  
Sun-Yong Choi ◽  
Youngchul Han
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Gaussian Model ◽  
Quadratic Term ◽  
Interest Rate Derivatives ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Quadratic Term Structure ◽  
The Interest Rate

Stochastic volatility of underlying assets has been shown to affect significantly the price of many financial derivatives. In particular, a fast mean-reverting factor of the stochastic volatility plays a major role in the pricing of options. This paper deals with the interest rate model dependence of the stochastic volatility impact on defaultable interest rate derivatives. We obtain an asymptotic formula of the price of defaultable bonds and bond options based on a quadratic term structure model and investigate the stochastic volatility and default risk effects and compare the results with those of the Vasicek model.

Does the slope of the yield curve of the interbank market influence prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange? A sectoral perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 294-307
Author(s):  
Ewa Majerowska ◽  
Jacek Bednarz
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Rate Curve ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Relationship Of

The interest rate curve is often viewed as the leading indicator of economic prosperity in a broad sense. This paper studies the ability of the slope of the yield curve in the term structure of interest rates to impact the sectoral indices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, using daily data covering the period from 1 January 2001 to 30 September 2020. The results of the research indicate an ambiguous dependence of the logarithmic rates of return of sub-indices on the change of the interbank interest rate curve. The only sectors showing a clear relationship of this type is energy and pharmaceuticals.

Yield Curves, Swap Curves, and Term Structure of Interest Rates

2019 ◽  
pp. 203-228
Author(s):  
Tom P. Davis ◽  
Dmitri Mossessian
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Interest Rate Swap ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Swap ◽  
The U.S

This chapter discusses multiple definitions of the yield curve and provides a conceptual understanding on the construction of yield curves for several markets. It reviews several definitions of the yield curve and examines the basic principles of the arbitrage-free pricing as they apply to yield curve construction. The chapter also reviews cases in which the no-arbitrage assumption is dropped from the yield curve, and then moves to specifics of the arbitrage-free curve construction for bond and swap markets. The concepts of equilibrium and market curves are introduced. The details of construction of both types of the curve are illustrated with examples from the U.S. Treasury market and the U.S. interest rate swap market. The chapter concludes by examining the major changes to the swap curve construction process caused by the financial crisis of 2007–2008 that made a profound impact on the interest rate swap markets.

scholarly journals Measuring Interest Rate Risk with Embedded Option Using HPL-MC Method in Fuzzy and Stochastic Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Enlin Tang ◽  
Wei Du
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Continuous Innovation ◽  
Liability Management ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Embedded Options

Under the condition of continuous innovation of financial derivatives and marketization of interest rate, interest rates fluctuate more frequently and fiercely, and the measurement of interest rate risk also attracts more attention. Under the premise that the fluctuation of interest rate follows fuzzy stochastic process, based on the option characteristics of financial instruments with embedded option, this paper takes effective duration and effective convexity as tools to measure interest rate risk when embedded options exist, tries to choose CIR extended model as term structure model, and uses the Monte Carlo method for hybrid low deviation sequences (HPL-MC) to analyze the prepayment characteristics of MBS, a representative financial instrument with embedded options, when interest rates fluctuate; on this basis, the effectiveness of effective duration management of interest rate risk is demonstrated with asset liability management cases of commercial banks.

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