Maximum Drawdown and Risk Tolerances

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (01) ◽  
pp. 1550003
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Tavakoli Baghdadabad

Due to the numerous studies of asymmetric portfolio returns, asymmetric risk measures have widely been used in risk management with extensive uses on the methodology of n-degree lower partial moment (LPM). Unlike the initial studies, we use the risk measure of n-degree maximum drawdown, which is a special case of n-degree LPM, to investigate the reduction impacts of n-degree maximum drawdown risk on risk tolerances generated by management styles from US equity-based mutual funds. We found that skewness does not impose any significant problems on the model of n-degree maximum drawdown. Thus, the tolerance effect of maximum drawdown risk in the n-degree M-DRM models is a decrease in fund returns. The n-degree CM-DRM optimization model decreased investors' risk more than two conventional models. Thus, the M-DRM can be accommodated with risk-averse investors' approach. The efficient set of mean-variance choices from the investment opportunity set, as described by Markowitz, shows that the n-degree CM-DRM algorithms create this set with lower risk than other algorithms. It implies that the mean-variance opportunity set generated by the n-degree CM-DRM creates lower risk for a given return than covariance and CLPM.

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Hyungbin Park

This paper proposes modified mean-variance risk measures for long-term investment portfolios. Two types of portfolios are considered: constant proportion portfolios and increasing amount portfolios. They are widely used in finance for investing assets and developing derivative securities. We compare the long-term behavior of a conventional mean-variance risk measure and a modified one of the two types of portfolios, and we discuss the benefits of the modified measure. Subsequently, an optimal long-term investment strategy is derived. We show that the modified risk measure reflects the investor’s risk aversion on the optimal long-term investment strategy; however, the conventional one does not. Several factor models are discussed as concrete examples: the Black–Scholes model, Kim–Omberg model, Heston model, and 3/2 stochastic volatility model.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 370-380
Author(s):  
Ervin Indarwati ◽  
Rosita Kusumawati

Portfolio risk shows the large deviations in portfolio returns from expected portfolio returns. Value at Risk (VaR) is one method for determining the maximum risk of loss of a portfolio or an asset based on a certain probability and time. There are three methods to estimate VaR, namely variance-covariance, historical, and Monte Carlo simulations. One disadvantage of VaR is that it is incoherent because it does not have sub-additive properties. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a coherent or related risk measure and has a sub-additive nature which indicates that the loss on the portfolio is smaller or equal to the amount of loss of each asset. CVaR can provide loss information above the maximum loss. Estimating portfolio risk from the CVaR value using Monte Carlo simulation and its application to PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI.JK) and PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BBTN.JK) will be discussed in this study.  The  daily  closing  price  of  each  BBNI  and BBTN share from 6 January 2019 to 30 December 2019 is used to measure the CVaR of the two banks' stock portfolios with this Monte Carlo simulation. The steps taken are determining the return value of assets, testing the normality of return of assets, looking for risk measures of returning assets that form a normally distributed portfolio, simulate the return of assets with monte carlo, calculate portfolio weights, looking for returns portfolio, calculate the quartile of portfolio return as a VaR value, and calculate the average loss above the VaR value as a CVaR value. The results of portfolio risk estimation of the value of CVaR using Monte Carlo simulation on PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk and PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk at a confidence level of 90%, 95%, and 99% is 5.82%, 6.39%, and 7.1% with a standard error of 0.58%, 0.59%, and 0.59%. If the initial funds that will be invested in this portfolio are illustrated at Rp 100,000,000, it can be interpreted that the maximum possible risk that investors will receive in the future will not exceed Rp 5,820,000, Rp 6,390,000 and Rp 7,100,000 at the significant level 90%, 95%, and 99%


2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (03) ◽  
pp. 341-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
DON U. A. GALAGEDERA

Even though investors' view of risk is generally regarded as related to the downside of the return distribution the CAPM beta is still a widely used measure of systematic risk. A number of studies compare the empirical performance of CAPM beta and downside beta in explaining the variation in portfolio returns and report mixed results. This paper provides a basis for explaining such mixed results. Using data generating processes in the mean-variance and mean-lower partial moment frameworks, analytical relationships between the CAPM beta and downside beta are derived. The derived relationships reveal that the association between the two systematic risk measures is to a great extent dependent on the volatility of the market portfolio returns and the deviation of the target rate from the risk-free rate. How the relationships derived here may be used in practice is demonstrated using empirical data.


2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 1750018 ◽  
Author(s):  
EL ATTAR ABDERRAHIM ◽  
EL HACHLOUFI MOSTAFA ◽  
GUENNOUN ZINE EL ABIDINE

In this paper, we propose an inclusive model which allows to improve the results obtained in the literature with regard to the criteria set by the insurers such as, maximizing the expected technical benefit under the variance constraint (mean-variance), minimizing the probability of ruin and minimizing risk measures. In this model, we determine the optimal reinsurance treaty parameter that minimizes both the risk and the probability of ruin (by maximizing the Lundberg adjustment coefficient) under the constraint of the technical benefit which must also be maximal, based on the conditional tail variance (CTV) risk measure. Thus, we have developed an optimization procedure based on the augmented Lagrangian and genetic algorithms, in order to solve the optimization program of this model.


Author(s):  
RENATO PELESSONI ◽  
PAOLO VICIG

In this paper the theory of coherent imprecise previsions is applied to risk measurement. We introduce the notion of coherent risk measure defined on an arbitrary set of risks, showing that it can be considered a special case of coherent upper prevision. We also prove that our definition generalizes the notion of coherence for risk measures defined on a linear space of random numbers, given in literature. Consistency properties of Value-at-Risk (VaR), currently one of the most used risk measures, are investigated too, showing that it does not necessarily satisfy a weaker notion of consistency called 'avoiding sure loss'. We introduce sufficient conditions for VaR to avoid sure loss and to be coherent. Finally we discuss ways of modifying incoherent risk measures into coherent ones.


2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S447-S469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Tavakoli Baghdadabad ◽  
Fauzias Mat Nor ◽  
Izani Ibrahim

We develop an alternative approach based on mean-drawdown risk behavior versus the mean-variance behavior. We develop two risk measures as the maximum draw down risk and average drawdown risk to estimate two new betas and then propose two CAPM-like models. The data includes a comprehensive universe of more than 11,000 US equity-based mutual funds from first month of 2000 to third month of 2011. The evidence clearly shows superiority of the maximum and average drawdown betas and their pricing models, the maximum drawdown CAPM and the average drawdown CAPM, over the traditional beta and CAPM, respectively.


2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (03) ◽  
pp. 1650006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irit Nowik

The purpose of this work is to offer for each player and any Nash equilibrium (NE), a measure for the potential risk in deviating from the NE strategy in any two person matrix game. We present two approaches regarding the nature of deviations: Strategic and Accidental. Accordingly, we define two models: S-model and T-model. The S-model defines a new game in which players deviate in the least dangerous direction. The risk defined in the T-model can serve as a refinement for the notion of “trembling hand perfect equilibrium” introduced by R. Selten. The risk measures enable testing and evaluating predictions on the behavior of players. For example: do players deviate more from a NE that is less risky? This may be relevant to the design of experiments. We present an Integer programming problem that computes the risk for any given player and NE. In the special case of zero-sum games with a unique strictly mixed NE, we prove that the risks of the players always coincide, even if the game is far from symmetry. This result holds for any norm we use for the size of deviations. We compare our risk measures to the risk measure defined by Harsanyi and Selten which is based on criteria of stability rather than on potential damage. We show that the measures may contradict.


2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-222
Author(s):  
Soo-Hyun Kim

Measuring risk is the key component in many asset pricing models. Although volatility is the most widely used measure for the risk, Value at Risk (VaR) and Maximum drawdown (MDD) are also considered as alternative risk measure. This article questions whether VaR and MDD contain additional information to volatility in equity market. The empirical analysis is conducted using the stocks listed in Korean stock market. By constructing portfolios in accordance with three risk measures, cross-sectional predictability is tested. The primary findings are as follow; (1) the return patterns are bell shaped in all measures and (2) VaR and MDD do not capture additional risk factors after conditioning volatility.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damiano Rossello ◽  
Silvestro Lo Cascio

AbstractRisks associated to maximum drawdown have been recently formalized as the tail mean of the maximum drawdown distribution, called Conditional Expected Drawdown (CED). In fact, the special case of average maximum drawdown is widely used in the fund management industry also in association to performance management. It lacks relevant information on worst case scenarios over a fixed horizon. Formulating a refined version of CED, we are able to add this piece of information to the risk measurement of drawdown, and then get a risk measure for processes that preserves all the good properties of CED but following more prudential regulatory and management assessments, also in term of marginal risk contribution attributed to factors. As a special application, we consider the conditioning information given by the all time minimum of cumulative returns.


Author(s):  
Nicole Bäuerle ◽  
Alexander Glauner

AbstractWe study the minimization of a spectral risk measure of the total discounted cost generated by a Markov Decision Process (MDP) over a finite or infinite planning horizon. The MDP is assumed to have Borel state and action spaces and the cost function may be unbounded above. The optimization problem is split into two minimization problems using an infimum representation for spectral risk measures. We show that the inner minimization problem can be solved as an ordinary MDP on an extended state space and give sufficient conditions under which an optimal policy exists. Regarding the infinite dimensional outer minimization problem, we prove the existence of a solution and derive an algorithm for its numerical approximation. Our results include the findings in Bäuerle and Ott (Math Methods Oper Res 74(3):361–379, 2011) in the special case that the risk measure is Expected Shortfall. As an application, we present a dynamic extension of the classical static optimal reinsurance problem, where an insurance company minimizes its cost of capital.


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