Cash flow uncertainty and IPO underpricing: evidence from income guarantee in Thai REITs

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between cash flow uncertainty and the underpricing of real estate investment trust (REIT) initial public offerings (IPOs) using hand-collected data on income guarantee in Thailand from January 2005 to December 2019.Design/methodology/approachThis article uses linear regression to determine the relationship between underpricing (initial return) and proxy for cash flow uncertainty (income guarantee), controlling for other factors. Because issuers can use several actions to signal their quality under asymmetric information, the joint decisions are analyzed as simultaneous equations and estimated using three-stage least square (3SLS) to address potential endogeneity concern.FindingsThis article finds that underpricing, on average, is negatively related to income guarantee, which is a proxy for ex ante cash flow uncertainty. The relationship is economically and statistically significant and robust to simultaneous equations estimation. Further investigation shows that REITs with income guarantee tend to have lower systematic risk (measured by CAPM beta) and returns, making the nature of some REITs more debt-like than equity-like.Practical implicationsFor issuers, the result suggests that offering income guarantee (which is more costly for assets with lower quality) can be a useful signal of asset quality to investors and reduce IPO discount. For institutional and retail investors, the results are informative about the risk-return tradeoffs in REIT IPO investment opportunities. Income guarantees makes REIT exposure more fix income-like, so there is a need to consider the credibility of the guarantor as well.Originality/valueThis article is the first to use income guarantee as an ex ante measure of cash flow uncertainty and explicitly investigates its linkage to IPO underpricing. This aspect of uncertainty and IPO underpricing remains little-studied in the academic literature. It also contributes to the growing literature of REIT IPOs in Asia.

DOES DEFAULT RISK MATTER FOR INVESTORS IN REITS

We investigate the relationship between default risk and REIT stock returns. A default risk long-short investment strategy generates a return of 15% per annum. We also evaluate a large number of potential explanations for the negative relationship between default risk and subsequent stock returns. We do not find robust evidence that the default risk premium can be explained by firm size, book-to-market equity, asset growth and idiosyncratic volatility. However, CAPM beta shows some promise in explaining the default risk premium. Our results shed further light on the role of default risk in investment in REITs.

Estimating the CAPM Beta for Public and Private Firms

This chapter presents solutions to some challenges when calculating CAPM Beta. Three methods for calculating traditional beta are presented and illustrated through the case of Facebook. Different choices of market index, data frequency, and sample size result in different values of beta; however, in all cases beta was greater than one. The chapter explores ordinal beta as an alternative measure to treat outliers in both developed and thin markets. Using a sample of 84 US stocks, there was no statistical difference between median traditional and ordinal betas. This was not the case for a sample of 47 Colombian stocks, which questions the usefulness of traditional beta in thin markets. In contrast with median traditional beta, median ordinal beta did not change significantly as a result of irregular data series. The contrary occurred when the observation (sampling) period was reduced; this leaves open the question of subjectivity when defining such period. Finally, the process of valuing a private company was illustrated through the case of Palmoil Ltd., a Colombian company.

ANALISIS PENGARUH CAPM BETA, FIRM SIZE, BOOK TO MARKET RATIO, DAN MOMENTUM TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM

This research is performed to examine influence of capm beta, firm size, book to market ratio, and momentum on stock return in companies that listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The population in this research was manufacture companies that listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2012-2014 with purposive sampling. Variables used in this research are capital gain (return), natural logarithma total asset (firm size), the ratio of book value to market value (book to market ratio), and return t-12 (momentum). The results shows that beta, firm size, book to market ratio and momentum simultaneously have a significant impact toward stock return. The conclusion based on partial test are (1) book to market ratio and momentum have a positive significance influence toward stock return (2) beta has negative insignificance influence toward stock return and firm size has positive insignificance influence toward stock return. Predictive capability of independent variabel in this research to stock return is 34,09% while other 65,91% was influenced by other factors.

ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN CAPM DENGAN TFMFF DALAM MENGESTIMASI RETURN SAHAM PADA JII PERIODE 2014-2016

ABSTRACT In investing investors need to estimate returns, it is intended that the desired actual return is in accordance with the expected return. CAPM and TFMFF are models that can estimate stock returns. This study aims to determine whether (1) in the CAPM beta model as market risk affects the return. (2) on TFMFF excess return, firm size and BE / ME have an effect on return. As well as (3) CAPM or TFMFF which can estimate return better. The sample of this research is JII stocks for the period 2014-2016. Data analysis used is simple regression for CAPM and panel data regression for TFMFF. The results of this study state that, (1) beta does not affect return. (2) excess return and firm size affect return while BE / ME does not affect return. (3) TFMFF is better than CAPM in estimating the return of JII for the period 2014-2016.Keywords: CAPM; TFMFF ABSTRAKDalam melakukan investasi investor perlu mengestimasi return, hal tersebut bertujuan agar return aktual yang diinginkan sesuai dengan return yang diharapkan. CAPM dan TFMFF merupakan model yang dapat mengestimasi return saham. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah (1) pada model CAPM beta sebagai risiko pasar berperpengaruh terhadap return. (2) pada TFMFF excess return, firm size dan BE/ME berperpengaruh terhadap return.Serta (3) CAPM atau TFMFF yang dapat mengestimasi return lebih baik.Sampel penelitian ini adalah saham-saham JII periode 2014-2016. Analisis data yang digunakan adalah regresi sederhana untuk CAPM dan regresi data panel untuk TFMFF. Hasil penelitian ini menyatakan bahwa, (1) beta tidak berpengaruh terhadap return. (2) excess return dan firm size berpengaruh terhadap return sedangkan BE/ME tidak berpengaruh terhadap return.(3) TFMFF lebih baik dibandingkan CAPM dalam mengestimasi return JII periode 2014-2016.Kata Kunci: CAPM; TFMFF

Competition and exposure of returns to the C-CAPM

Purpose This study aims to investigate the effect of product market competition on the exposure of firms’ returns to consumption fluctuations (C-CAPM beta). Design/methodology/approach The C-CAPM beta comes from a regression of a stock’s returns against consumption growth, with controls for the Fama–French three factors and momentum. The Herfindahl–Hirschman index of concentration measures competition, with other measures like deregulation and tariff reductions used for robustness tests. Industries are categorized using different SIC digits, with the NAICS measure used for robustness tests. The C-CAPM beta is regressed to competition, with appropriate control variables, to find its relationship. Findings Higher levels of competition reduces the C-CAPM beta. The results are consistently robust to different measures of product market competition and industry identification. Practical implications Product market competition influences the sensitivity of systematic risk, as measured by the C-CAPM beta, to consumption, such that higher levels of competition reduce systematic risk. Originality/value This research contributes to a literature that admittedly is still murky, as the relationship between competition and systematic risk is still unsettled. No study (to the authors’ knowledge) examines the effect of competition on firms’ exposure to consumption. This research adds to the literature on the role of competition in risk, specifically with respect to consumption.

Risk-Factor Disclosure and Asset Prices

ABSTRACT While researchers and practitioners alike estimate firms' exposures to systematic risk factors, the disclosure literature typically assumes that exposures are common knowledge. We develop a model where the firm's exposure to a factor is unknown, and analyze the effects of factor-exposure uncertainty on share price and the effects of disclosure about the exposure. We find that: (1) factor-exposure uncertainty introduces skewness and excess kurtosis in the cash flow distribution relative to the commonly used normal distribution; (2) risk-factor disclosure affects all moments of that distribution; and (3) the pricing of higher moments affects the price response of disclosure and the incentives to disclose. For example, factor-exposure uncertainty may actually increase price when the uncertainty implies positive skewness in the cash flow distribution. Hence, a reduction in uncertainty through disclosure may increase cost of capital. We also extend our model to multiple firms and show that factor-exposure uncertainty manifests as uncertainty about a firm's CAPM beta. JEL Classifications: G12; M41.

An Exploration of the Time-varying Beta of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model: The Case of the Japanese and the Other Asia-Pacific Stock Markets

This study clarifies the state of dynamic evolution of the international CAPM betas for Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) and Japanese stock returns: first, both for Asia Pacific and Japanese stock markets, the time-invariant international CAPM beta values are not high. Second, over the period from July 2, 1990 to May 30, 2016, for Asia Pacific stock markets, the time-varying international CAPM betas gradually increase; while for the Japanese market, the time-varying international CAPM betas gradually decrease. We also find that the international time-varying CAPM betas for Japan are recently lower than those for Asia Pacific markets, thus, in the global equity investments, Japanese equities are more useful to obtain the diversification effects than the other Asia Pacific equities.