scholarly journals Time-Invariance Coefficients Tests with the Adaptive Multi-Factor Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liao Zhu ◽  
Robert A. Jarrow ◽  
Martin T. Wells
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Time Invariance ◽  
Time Invariant ◽  
Price Differences ◽  
Relevant Factors

This paper tests a multi-factor asset pricing model that does not assume that the return’s beta coefficients are constants. This is done by estimating the generalized arbitrage pricing theory (GAPT) using price differences. An implication of the GAPT is that when using price differences instead of returns, the beta coefficients are constant. We employ the adaptive multi-factor (AMF) model to test the GAPT utilizing a Groupwise Interpretable Basis Selection (GIBS) algorithm to identify the relevant factors from among all traded exchange-traded funds. We compare the performance of the AMF model with the Fama–French 5-factor (FF5) model. For nearly all time periods less than six years, the beta coefficients are time-invariant for the AMF model, but not for the FF5 model. This implies that the AMF model with a rolling window (such as five years) is more consistent with realized asset returns than is the FF5 model.

scholarly journals High-Dimensional Estimation, Basis Assets, and the Adaptive Multi-Factor Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050017
Author(s):  
Liao Zhu ◽  
Sumanta Basu ◽  
Robert A. Jarrow ◽  
Martin T. Wells
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Pricing Theory

The paper proposes a new algorithm for the high-dimensional financial data — the Groupwise Interpretable Basis Selection (GIBS) algorithm, to estimate a new Adaptive Multi-Factor (AMF) asset pricing model, implied by the recently developed Generalized Arbitrage Pricing Theory, which relaxes the convention that the number of risk-factors is small. We first obtain an adaptive collection of basis assets and then simultaneously test which basis assets correspond to which securities, using high-dimensional methods. The AMF model, along with the GIBS algorithm, is shown to have a significantly better fitting and prediction power than the Fama–French 5-factor model.

scholarly journals PENGUKURAN KINERJA PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM) DAN ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT) (Studi Kasus : Saham-saham LQ45)

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 419-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dedi Baleo Pasaribu ◽  
Di Asih I Maruddani ◽  
Sugito Sugito
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Pricing Theory

Investing is placing money or funds in the hope of obtaining additional or specific gains on the money or funds. The capital market is one place to invest in the financial field of interest to investor. This is because the capital market gives investor the freedom to choose securities traded in the capital market in accordance with the wishes of investor. Investor are included in risk averter, that means investor will always try to avoid risk. To avoid risk, investor try to diversify their investment. Diversification concept commonly used is portfolio. To maximize the return to be earned, the investor will invest his funds into several stocks in order to earn a greater profit. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a balance model that describes the relation of a risk with return more simply because it uses only one variable to describe the risk. Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is a balance model that used many risk variables to see the relation of risk and return. With both models will be obtained a portfolio with each constituent stock is four stocks selected from 45 stocks in the LQ45 index. To find out which portfolio is the best performed a performance analysis using the Sharpe index. From the measurement result, it is found that the best portfolio is the CAPM portfolio with composite stock is PTBA with investment weight of 0.467%, BUMI with investment weight of 12.855%, ANTM with investment weight of 53.077% and PPRO with investment weight of 33.601%. Keywords: LQ45, portfolio, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Arbitrage Pricing Theory                       (APT), Sharpe Index 

MARKOWITZ PORTFOLIO AND THE BLUR OF HISTORY

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (05) ◽  
pp. 2050030
Author(s):  
CHI TIM NG ◽  
YUE SHI ◽  
NGAI HANG CHAN
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
Optimal Portfolio ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Sample Mean ◽  
Arbitrage Opportunities ◽  
Markowitz Portfolio ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Mean Vector

It is shown in this paper that when the true mean return vector is replaced by the inferred mean vector obtained indirectly from factor model and arbitrage pricing theory, its impact on the resulting optimal portfolio is insignificant. To achieve this goal, several assumptions are imposed: (i) the asset returns are generated from a factor model, (ii) the number of assets goes to infinity, and (iii) there is no asymptotic arbitrage opportunities. Issues related to the efficiency of the estimated optimal portfolio for high-frequency data are discussed. The portfolio constructed using the sample mean vector and using the inferred mean vector from arbitrage pricing theory are compared.

An extensile method on the arbitrage pricing theory based on downside risk (D-APT)

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Tavakoli Baghdadabad ◽  
Paskalis Glabadanidis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Expected Stock Returns ◽  
Pricing Theory

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a new and improved version of arbitrage pricing theory (APT), namely, downside APT (D-APT) using the concepts of factors’ downside beta and semi-variance. Design/methodology/approach – This study includes 163 stocks traded on the Malaysian stock market and uses eight macroeconomic variables as the dependent and independent variables to investigate the relationship between the adjusted returns and the downside factors’ betas over the whole period 1990-2010, and sub-periods 1990-1998 and 1999-2010. It proposes a new version of the APT, namely, the D-APT to replace two deficient measures of factor's beta and variance with more efficient measures of factors’ downside betas and semi-variance to improve and dispel the APT deficiency. Findings – The paper finds that the pricing restrictions of the D-APT, in the context of an unrestricted linear factor model, cannot be rejected over the sample period. This means that all of the identified factors are able to price stock returns in the D-APT model. The robustness control model supports the results reported for the D-APT as well. In addition, all of the empirical tests provide support the D-APT as a new asset pricing model, especially during a crisis. Research limitations/implications – It may be worthwhile explaining the autocorrelation limitation between variables when applying the D-APT. Practical implications – The framework can be useful to investors, portfolio managers, and economists in predicting expected stock returns driven by macroeconomic and financial variables. Moreover, the results are important to corporate managers who undertake the cost of capital computations, fund managers who make investment decisions and, investors who assess the performance of managed funds. Originality/value – This paper is the first study to apply the concepts of semi-variance and downside beta in the conventional APT model to propose a new model, namely, the D-APT.

scholarly journals COMPROBACIÓN DEL COMPORTAMIENTO CAÓTICO EN BOLSA DE VALORES DE COLOMBIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Julieth Sierra Suárez ◽  
Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte ◽  
Juan Manuel Mascareñas Pérez-Iñigo
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Theory Y

La hipótesis de eficiencia en los mercados bursátiles es uno de los supuestos básicos de los modelos de valoración de activos, tales como el Capital Asset Pricing Model y Arbitrage Pricing Theory, y sostiene que no es posible predecir los precios de un activo financiero, dado que se comportan aleatoriamente. Contrariamente, la hipótesis de mercado fractal afirma que los precios tienen estructura caótica, y podrían ser predichos a partir de modelos no lineales, rechazando así la hipótesis de mercado eficiente e invalidando los supuestos de los modelos valoración de activos. Este trabajo busca evidenciar el comportamiento caótico en el mercado bursátil colombiano con el fin de rechazar o aceptar la hipótesis de mercado eficiente, usando metodologías como: gráficos de precios, gráficos de recurrencia, dimensión de correlación, coeficiente de Hurst, exponente de Lyapunov y el test de Brock, Decher y Scehinkman. Los resultados revelan que los activos muestran indicios de comportamiento caótico para periodos al alza y aleatorio para periodos a la baja, apoyando así la hipótesis de mercado fractal. Estos hallazgos podrían respaldar el uso de modelos no lineales para la predicción de los precios en los periodos al alza y rechazar la eficiencia del mercado bursátil colombiano.

scholarly journals Analisis Perbandingan Keakuratan CAPM Dan APT Dalam Upaya Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi Saham Sektor Perbankan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-50
Author(s):  
Arif Abdillah ◽  
Aditya Kristamtomo Putra
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Pricing Theory

The Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory are a balance model that uses risk measurement variables to see risk correlations and returns. This research is descriptive quantitative. The purpose of this research is to find out how much the value of stock returns in the banking sector is calculated by the Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory, looking for a more accurate model and how big is the difference in accuracy of the significant accuracy of the Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory in making investment decisions in the banking sector. The population in this study is a banking company registered at Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2015-2018. The sample in this study amounted to 36 banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2015-2018. The sampling method is a non-probability sampling method that is purposive sampling technique. The results of this study indicate that the Capital Asset Pricing Model is better than the Arbitrage Pricing Theory and there is no difference in accuracy between the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in an investment decision making effort at banking sector.

scholarly journals Analisis Keakuratan Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) dan Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) dalam Memprediksi Expected Saham pada LQ45

d'CARTESIAN ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irfan Ibrahim ◽  
Jullia Titaley ◽  
Tohap Manurung
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Pricing Theory

Para investor dalam pembelian saham pada dasarnya memiliki tujuan yang sama yaitu mengharapkan pengembalian (return) yang maksimal dan risiko seminimal mungkin. Untuk mengambil keputusan dalam investasi tersebut dengan memperhatikan harapan investor maka diperlukan prediksi yang akurat. Untuk memilih saham dari Pasar Modal, investor menilai dari expected return yang dihitung dari saham tersebut. Para investor dalam memilih portofolio saham sering dihadapkan dengan berbagai faktor yang relevan dalam mengestimasi expected return. Model yang sering digunakan dalam mengestimasi expected return saham berdasarkan faktor-faktor yang dianggap memengaruhi return saham adalah Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) dan Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). CAPM merupakan model untuk menentukan expected return saham pada keadaan equilibrium. APT mengasumsikan bahwa expected return saham dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor dalam perekonomian dan industri. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui perbandingan tingkat keakuratan CAPM dan APT dalam mengestimasi expected return pada saham-saham yang terdaftar pada LQ45. Penelitian ini menggunakan data close price bulanan saham dengan periode Juni 2011-Juni 2016. Dari hasil penelitian ini, menunjukkan bahwa perbandingan keakuratan dari CAPM dan APT yang dilihat dari nilai Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) yang memiliki selisih yang sangat kecil. Berdasarkan hasil uji-t Dua Sampel Independen dapat diambil kesimpulan yang menyatakan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara keakuratan CAPM dan APT dalam mengestimasi expected return saham yang terdaftar pada LQ45.Kata Kunci : CAPM, APT, Expected Return.

scholarly journals CAPM versus APT – two models in comparison

E-conom ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-120
Author(s):  
Martin A. Moser
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Market Participant ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Risky Investment ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
And Performance

The classic portfolio theory deals with questions about the criteria that make up an optimal securities portfolio for a market participant and how it is composed. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) forms the basis of modern financing theory. It was considered the key basic idea for the control and performance measurement of securities portfolios. In modern investment management, however, it has been increasingly replaced by multi-factor approaches, such as the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). The APT represents the second essential basic idea for the valuation of risky investment forms. This paper describes both models and compares the model assumptions, their practical suitability as well as advantages and disadvantages and an application example. Furthermore, the question is analyzed, which perspective Behavioral Finance brings and why this perspective is not covered in CAPM and APT models. The literature review was used as the method for processing the task.

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