scholarly journals Predicting Severity and Duration of Road Traffic Accident

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Zong ◽  
Huiyong Zhang ◽  
Hongguo Xu ◽  
Xiumei Zhu ◽  
Lu Wang

This paper presents a model system to predict severity and duration of traffic accidents by employing Ordered Probit model and Hazard model, respectively. The models are estimated using traffic accident data collected in Jilin province, China, in 2010. With the developed models, three severity indicators, namely, number of fatalities, number of injuries, and property damage, as well as accident duration, are predicted, and the important influences of related variables are identified. The results indicate that the goodness-of-fit of Ordered Probit model is higher than that of SVC model in severity modeling. In addition, accident severity is proven to be an important determinant of duration; that is, more fatalities and injuries in the accident lead to longer duration. Study results can be applied to predictions of accident severity and duration, which are two essential steps in accident management process. By recognizing those key influences, this study also provides suggestive results for government to take effective measures to reduce accident impacts and improve traffic safety.

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Zong ◽  
Hongguo Xu ◽  
Huiyong Zhang

The paper presents a comparison between two modeling techniques, Bayesian network and Regression models, by employing them in accident severity analysis. Three severity indicators, that is, number of fatalities, number of injuries and property damage, are investigated with the two methods, and the major contribution factors and their effects are identified. The results indicate that the goodness of fit of Bayesian network is higher than that of Regression models in accident severity modeling. This finding facilitates the improvement of accuracy for accident severity prediction. Study results can be applied to the prediction of accident severity, which is one of the essential steps in accident management process. By recognizing the key influences, this research also provides suggestions for government to take effective measures to reduce accident impacts and improve traffic safety.


2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-139
Author(s):  
Joonbum Lim ◽  
Hyungkyu Kim ◽  
Kyoungtae Kim ◽  
Somyoung Shin ◽  
Hyerin Lee

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (12(81)) ◽  
pp. 26-32
Author(s):  
V. Volkov ◽  
E. Nabatnikova ◽  
E. Lebedev

The groups of participants of the pedestrian and automobile flows, whose actions cause the greatest danger to the occurrence of conflict situations in the zone of unregulated transition, are identified. The factors determining the likelihood of a traffic accident at an unregulated transition are systematized, for which probability estimates of the occurrence of road traffic accidents are calculated. As an estimated parameter, the hazard coefficient of a conflict point of an unregulated transition is proposed, which is determined by the ratio of the probability of a traffic accident in the real-time hourly interval to the average annual probability of a traffic accident reduced to the hourly interval. The dependences of the hazard ratio of an unregulated transition are established on the most significant factors: the speed mode of transport in the area before the transition and the state of the road surface.


2011 ◽  
Vol 97-98 ◽  
pp. 1042-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan Jiao Sun ◽  
Ru Yue Bai ◽  
Yuan Yuan Yu

9238 traffic accidents data are collected in rural road of China. Through the data analysis, the main causes of rural road traffic accident are presented. The external environment, the participant features, road features and accident characteristics are involved. The regression analysis in SPSS is applied to find the relationship between the accident features. Overall, the rural road traffic accident was mainly due to in the rural area there are mass travel mode, lower grade roads, poorer safety awareness of traveler and the road is lack of traffic safety facilities and so on.


Transport ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 216-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Zanne ◽  
Aleš Groznik

Road traffic accident is an accident on a public road in which at least one moving vehicle has been involved and material damage or injury or death has occurred. Traffic accidents occur for various reasons, with one of them being the transport infrastructure and next the condition of traffic environment. Motorways are considered to be the safest roads, which have initially been planned as dedicated roads intended to be travelled only by personal cars, but the evolution of modal split of freight transport in Europe is causing the heterogeneity of traffic flows on these roads, which consequently affects the traffic safety. The aim of this paper is to explore the effects of changing volume and structure of traffic flows on road safety on Slovenian motorways. After the exhaustive analysis of past data, the paper provides different models for forecasting traffic safety on Slovenian motorways.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (24) ◽  
pp. 134-148
Author(s):  
Evgen Minenko ◽  
◽  
Olexandr Pyna ◽  
Olga Belenchuk ◽  
Tetyana Bondar ◽  
...  

Introduction. Undesirable consequences of fast increase of the vehicle fleet are an increase in the level of accident rate and the number of deaths and injuries in traffic accidents (hereinafter accidents). The positive experience of other countries shows that objectives indicators for reducing the number of traffic accident victims by implementing reasonable measures to eliminate the dominant causes of accidents is the most effective way to achieve the desired result in improving traffic safety. Problem statement. Considering the enormous economic lost caused by traffic accidents, improving of traffic safety has been a priority in the policies of many countries around the world in recent decades. In this regard, the international community pays considerable attention to the development of targeted programs and implementation of traffic safety measures directed at preventing the road traffic injuries. In particular, on March 2, 2010, the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution No. 64/255 «Improving Traffic Safety Worldwide», which proclaimed the 2011–2020 «Decade of Traffic Safety Actions» to reduce deaths from injuries sustained as a result of traffic accident — by 50%. Ukraine, through which seven international transport corridors run [1], did not stay away from solving the common problem and joined in 2011 to the UN initiative regarding reducing the death rate due to traffic accidents by at least 30 % [2]. For evaluation of the achieved result, it is important to analyze the accident statistics and determine whether the planned results were achieved through the implementation of planned measures to improve traffic safety. Purpose. The article considers the dynamics of accident rate and the number of traffic accidents victims in Ukraine for the period 2011–2020, as well as analyzes the main causes of traffic accidents on the public roads, including roads of state importance, to evaluate the outcome of the Decade of Traffic Safety Actions and providing the recommendations for further decreasing of mortality on domestic roads. Materials and methods. The study used the method of statistical processing of data on the number of accidents and their victims in Ukraine and the method of systematic analysis of risk factors that contributed to the accidents. Results. It is determined that the total number of fatalities in traffic accidents for the period 2011–2020 decreased in Ukraine by 27.8 %, and on the public roads — by 44.0 %. However, considering that since 2014 there are no data on traffic accidents in Autonomous Republic of Crimea and partly in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the indicator of decreasing of deaths per 100 traffic accidents and the result shows more modest achievements: in Ukraine it was possible to reduce deaths by 100 traffic accidents per 100 14 %, and on the public roads — only 5.4 %. Conclusions. Accident rate analysis provides an information basis for understanding the scale of the problem of traffic injuries, evaluating the results of implemented measures to improve traffic safety, the dynamics of positive or negative developments, and allows to plan reasonably the measures to improve road conditions to reduce mortality on roads.


2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 761-771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olegas Prentkovskis ◽  
Jurijus Tretjakovas ◽  
Audrius Švedas ◽  
Andrii Bieliatynskyi ◽  
Alfonsas Daniunas ◽  
...  

Traffic safety mainly depends on vehicles, pedestrians and road infrastructure. On highways, the heaviest traffic accidents are associated with crossing of the dividing strips by a vehicle and its collision with side obstacles on the junction or road bridge exit. These accidents often occur, when vehicles, running at a high speed, collide with obstacles, which may cause human injuries. In such cases, the probability of fatalities or heavy injuries to people in a traffic accident is very high. Road traffic infrastructure plays an important part in ensuring traffic safety on urban roads and highways. It includes guardrails, speed bumps, pedestrian safety islands, traffic regulation systems, road information infrastructure, etc. Guardrail (known as civil engineering element and traffic safety element) installation may help to reduce the number of human injuries and fatalities caused by traffic accidents. Guardrails of various types are installed on the roads of Lithuania and Ukraine. Guardrails, consisting of metal posts of the profile Σ and a protective beam of the profile W, i.e. ‘double-wave guardrails’, are among the most commonly used ones. The authors of this paper present the analysis of the deformation state of a double-wave guardrail (describing the strains and stresses of its elements).


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