scholarly journals Loss Aversion, Adaptive Beliefs, and Asset Pricing Dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamal Samy Selim ◽  
Ahmed Okasha ◽  
Heba M. Ezzat
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Belief System ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Pricing Dynamics ◽  
Evolutionary Fitness

We study asset pricing dynamics in artificial financial markets model. The financial market is populated with agents following two heterogeneous trading beliefs, the technical and the fundamental prediction rules. Agents switch between trading rules with respect to their past performance. The agents are loss averse over asset price fluctuations. Loss aversion behaviour depends on the past performance of the trading strategies in terms of an evolutionary fitness measure. We propose a novel application of the prospect theory to agent-based modelling, and by simulation, the effect of evolutionary fitness measure on adaptive belief system is investigated. For comparison, we study pricing dynamics of a financial market populated with chartists perceive losses and gains symmetrically. One of our contributions is validating the agent-based models using real financial data of the Egyptian Stock Exchange. We find that our framework can explain important stylized facts in financial time series, such as random walk price behaviour, bubbles and crashes, fat-tailed return distributions, power-law tails in the distribution of returns, excess volatility, volatility clustering, the absence of autocorrelation in raw returns, and the power-law autocorrelations in absolute returns. In addition to this, we find that loss aversion improves market quality and market stability.

Analyzing the Influences of Passive Investment Strategies on Financial Markets via Agent-Based Modeling

2008 ◽  
pp. 224-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Takahashi ◽  
Satoru Takahashi ◽  
Takao Terano
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Price Fluctuations

This chapter develops an agent-based model to analyze microscopic and macroscopic links between investor behaviors and price fluctuations in a financial market. This analysis focuses on the effects of Passive Investment Strategy in a financial market. From the extensive analyses, we have found that (1) Passive Investment Strategy is valid in a realistic efficient market, however, it could have bad influences such as instability of market and inadequate asset pricing deviations, and (2) under certain assumptions, Passive Investment Strategy and Active Investment Strategy could coexist in a Financial Market.

scholarly journals Loss aversion in an agent-based asset pricing model

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Radu T. Pruna ◽  
Maria Polukarov ◽  
Nicholas R. Jennings
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Asset Pricing Model

Agent-Based Modeling Bridges Theory of Behavioral Finance and Financial Markets

2010 ◽  
pp. 134-155
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Takahashi ◽  
Takao Terano
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Fundamental Values

This chapter describes advances of agent-based models to financial market analyses based on our recent research. We have developed several agent-based models to analyze microscopic and macroscopic links between investor behaviors and price fluctuations in a financial market. The models are characterized by the methodology that analyzes the relations among micro-level decision making rules of the agents and macro-level social behaviors via computer simulations. In this chapter, we report the outline of recent results of our analysis. From the extensive analyses, we have found that (1) investors’ overconfidence behaviors plays various roles in a financial market, (2) overconfident investors emerge in a bottom-up fashion in the market, (3) they contribute to the efficient trades in the market, which adequately reflects fundamental values, (4) the passive investment strategy is valid in a realistic efficient market, however, it could have bad influences such as instability of market and inadequate asset pricing deviations, and (5) under certain assumptions, the passive investment strategy and active investment strategy could coexist in a financial market.

Disposition effect and multi-asset market dynamics

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-164
Author(s):  
Heba M. Ezzat
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Switching Behavior ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Multiple Assets ◽  
Pricing Dynamics

Purpose Asset pricing dynamics in a multi-asset framework when investors’ trading exhibits the disposition effect is studied. The purpose of this paper is to explore asset pricing dynamics and the switching behavior among multiple assets. Design/methodology/approach The dynamics of complex financial markets can be best explored by following agent-based modeling approach. The artificial financial market is populated with traders following two heterogeneous trading strategies: the technical and the fundamental trading rules. By simulation, the switching behavior among multiple assets is investigated. Findings The proposed framework can explain important stylized facts in financial time series, such as random walk price dynamics, bubbles and crashes, fat-tailed return distributions, absence of autocorrelation in raw returns, persistent long memory of volatility, excess volatility, volatility clustering and power-law tails. In addition, asset returns possess fractal structure and self-similarity features; though the switching behavior is only allowed among the asset markets. Practical implications The model demonstrates stylized facts of most real financial markets. Thereafter, the proposed model can serve as a testbed for policy makers, scholars and investors. Originality/value To the best of knowledge, no research has been conducted to introduce the disposition effect to a multi-asset agent-based model.

scholarly journals Dating Capital Market Integration In The EMU

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Sergiy Rakhmayil
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Capital Market Integration ◽  
Market Variables

This paper analyzes the effect of the Euro on structural breaks in financial market variables in a sample of three EMU (France, Germany, Netherlands) and two non-EMU (U.K. and Switzerland) countries from March 1984 to November 2002. We identify two dates when integration-related structural breaks occurred in European asset pricing; the first in 1986 affected all sample countries whereas the second in 2000 affected only the EMU countries and could be attributed to the adoption of Euro in 1999.

scholarly journals An Experimental Test of the Lucas Asset Pricing Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 627-667 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Crockett ◽  
John Duffy ◽  
Yehuda Izhakian
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Consumption Smoothing ◽  
Asset Price Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Fundamental Value ◽  
Experimental Treatments ◽  
Marginal Returns ◽  
Dynamic Asset Pricing ◽  
Fundamental Price

Abstract We implement a dynamic asset pricing experiment in the spirit of Lucas (1978) with storable assets and non-storable cash. In the first treatment, we impose diminishing marginal returns to cash to incentivize consumption smoothing across periods. We find that subjects use the asset to smooth consumption, although the asset trades at a discount relative to the risk-neutral fundamental price. This under-pricing is a departure from the asset price “bubbles” observed in the large experimental asset pricing literature originating with Smith et al. (1988) and can be rationalized by considering subjects’ risk aversion with respect to uncertain money earnings. In a second treatment, with no induced motivation for trade à la the Smith et al. design, we find that the asset trades at a premium relative to its expected value and that shareholdings are highly concentrated. Elimination of asset price uncertainty in additional experimental treatments serves to reinforce the same observations, and suggests that speculative behaviour explains the departure of prices from fundamental value in the absence of a consumption-smoothing motive for asset trades.

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