PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI SAHAM DENGAN ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL MELALUI PENDEKATAN PRICE EARNING RATIO (PER) (STUDI PADA SAHAM-SAHAM PERUSAHAAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI INDEKS LQ45 PERIODE 2016-2018

ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memberikan saran kepada investor dan masyarakat yang berencana menginvestasikan uangnya kedalam pasar modal dan berharap investor selalu menghitung nilai saham sebelum mengambil keputusan dalam berinvestasi. Dalam menilai saham dapat dilakukan dengan menganalisis internal maupun secara eksternal perusahaan. Analisis saham yang digunakan adalah analisis fundamental dimana berfokus pada analisis internal perusahaan. Dengan demikian hal ini selaras dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui gambaran kinerja keuangan perusahaan dan mengetahui kewajaran saham menggunakan price earning ratio. Dalam memilih sampel penelitian pada perusahaan yang terdaftar di Indeks LQ45 pada tahun 2016 – 2018 dengan metode purposive sampling dari populasi sejumlah 59 saham perusahaan diambil sampel sejumlah delapan perusahaan, yaitu AKR Corporindo Tbk, Astra International Tbk, Bank Central Asia Tbk, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk, Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, Surya Citra Media Tbk, United Tractors Tbk, Unilever Indonesia Tbk. Adapun metode dalam melakukan analisis perusahaan menggunakan metode pendeketan Price Earning Ratio. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukan bahwa pada delapan saham perusahaan yang dijadikan sampel penelitian menghasilkan berbeda-beda kondisi empat perusahaan mengalami kondisi Undervalued, tiga perusahaan lainnya mengalami kondisi Overvalued dan satu perusahaan terahkir mengalami kondisi Correctly valued. Keyword : Investasi Analisis Fundamental,Price Earning Ratio, Indeks LQ45, Keputusan investasi

Cross-section instability in financial markets: impatience, extrapolation, and switching

This paper presents a stylized model of interaction among boundedly rational heterogeneous agents in a multi-asset financial market to examine how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching behaviors can affect cross-section market stability. Besides extrapolation and performance based switching between fundamental and extrapolative trading documented in single asset market, we show that a high degree of ‘impatience’ of agents who are ready to switch to more profitable trading strategy in the short run provides a further cross-section destabilizing mechanism. Though the ‘fundamental’ steady-state values, which reflect the standard present-value of the dividends, represent an unbiased equilibrium market outcome in the long run (to a certain extent), the price deviation from the fundamental price in one asset can spill-over to other assets, resulting in cross-section instability. Based on a (Neimark–Sacker) bifurcation analysis, we provide explicit conditions on how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching can destabilize the market and result in a variety of short and long-run patterns for the cross-section asset price dynamics.

Food Prices, Ethics and Forms of Speculation

This paper examines the role of speculative motives in the determination of commodity prices and specifically food related commodity prices. The motivation for this study is the considerable flow of funds into commodities, the widespread view that the process of financialization has led to greater levels of speculation and that speculation is the primary cause of regular spikes in food prices since the turn of the century. We consider two forms of short-term trading, a biasing influence (Manipulators) and a correcting influence (Speculators), relative to the fundamental price. While both forms of short-term trading are relevant, they are small in terms of their influence on overall prices. We do however find some evidence of an increased role being played by Manipulators during the period most associated with financialization.

A Study on the Trading Price Estimation Algorithm for Healthcare Transaction Data

Background: While more attention has been paid of late to utilization plans for big data in the healthcare sector worldwide, few scholars have addressed the value estimation of healthcare data. Accordingly, this study aims to propose an idea of a reasonable price estimation algorithm that can be applied to bidirectional exchange in healthcare data platforms.Methods: This study incorporates three methodologies for the data valuation, namely: cost-based, market-based, and impact-based approaches. The cost-based approach calculates the value of data based on the costs associated with data creation, management, and utilization. On the other hand, the market-based approach evaluates it by comparing the market price of a service similar to the data. Finally, the impact-based approach estimates the data value with an emphasis on improving future revenue generation and productivity as an effect of using the data.Results: The trading prices of healthcare data are determined by the sum of two prices—the fundamental price and the dynamic price. Here, the fundamental price can be further subdivided into the beginning value, complexity value, and network value. The beginning value is determined in proportion to the physical file size of the data, and the fundamental price is estimated by adding the complexity value and network value that can reflect the qualitative value (within 20% of the beginning value) of the data to the beginning value. First, the complexity value can increase if more personal information, more relevant information to the national health insurance system, and more recent and long-term information are included in the dimensions of identification, material, and time information inherent in healthcare data. Second, the network value reflects whether the data can be well linked with data from, not only the healthcare sector, but also from other fields and sectors. The higher the match rate between the attribute value keyword of the data and the healthcare search keyword of journals of excellence and portal services, the higher value is given. Finally, dynamic price reflects real-time preferences for the data and changes in data supply and demand as the actual exchange proceeds through healthcare data trading. To this end, dynamic value is determined within the upper and lower 5% band of the previous month's trading price based on the number of monthly views for the data, the number of downloads of summary data, and the number of actual purchases, and this is reflected in the next month's trading price.Conclusions: If the algorithm for estimating the trading price of healthcare data proposed in this study is applied to actual data trades, it would expand the transactions of healthcare data from both supply and demand sides. Also, in the processes of actual data exchange and the accumulation of actual data trades, continuing studies on the weighting parameters are needed to better reflect reality; such studies would enable the assignment of additional values or penalties.

ANALISIS RASIO KEUANGAN TERHADAP PRICE EARNING RATIO PADA PERUSAHAAN PROPERTY DI BEI

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh rasio keuangan terhadap price earning ratio pada perusahaan Property yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Dalam analisa fundamental, price earning ratio sering digunakan karena cukup mudah dipahami oleh investor maupun calon investor sebagai ukuran untuk menentukan bagaimana pasar memberi nilai/harga pada suatu perusahaan. Rasio keuangan yang digunakan yaitu rasio likuiditas, rasio solvabilitas, rasio aktivitas, dan rasio profitabilitas. Dalam penelitian ini variabel yang ada adalah variabel bebas yaitu current ratio (CR), debt to equity ratio (DER), inventory turnover (INTO), return on equity (ROE) dan variabel terikat yaitu price earning ratio saham (PER). Model penelitian yang digunakan adalah model regresi linier berganda. Jenis data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder dari setiap perusahaan property yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode tahun 2015 sampai dengan 2018. Perusahaan Property yang akan diteliti berjumlah 10 (sepuluh) yang telah go public yaitu PT. Bukit Darmo Property Tbk., PT. Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk., PT. Ciputra Property Tbk., PT. Duta Anggada Realty Tbk., PT. Duta Graha Indah Tbk., PT. Intiland Development Tbk., PT. Bakrieland Development Tbk., PT. Global Land Development Tbk., PT. Jaya Real Property Tbk., PT. Lippo Cikarang Tbk. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rasio likuiditas (current ratio), rasio solvabilitas (debt to equity ratio), rasio aktivitas (inventory turnover), dan rasio profitabilitas (return on equity) mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap price earning ratio saham perusahaan property. Penelitian ini dapat digunakan sebagai acuan bagi para investor dalam memprediksi harga saham perusahaan yang akan datang dan dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk berinvestasi.

An Experimental Test of the Lucas Asset Pricing Model

We implement a dynamic asset pricing experiment in the spirit of Lucas (1978) with storable assets and non-storable cash. In the first treatment, we impose diminishing marginal returns to cash to incentivize consumption smoothing across periods. We find that subjects use the asset to smooth consumption, although the asset trades at a discount relative to the risk-neutral fundamental price. This under-pricing is a departure from the asset price “bubbles” observed in the large experimental asset pricing literature originating with Smith et al. (1988) and can be rationalized by considering subjects’ risk aversion with respect to uncertain money earnings. In a second treatment, with no induced motivation for trade à la the Smith et al. design, we find that the asset trades at a premium relative to its expected value and that shareholdings are highly concentrated. Elimination of asset price uncertainty in additional experimental treatments serves to reinforce the same observations, and suggests that speculative behaviour explains the departure of prices from fundamental value in the absence of a consumption-smoothing motive for asset trades.