scholarly journals The Short-Term Load Forecasting for Special Days Based on Bagged Regression Trees in Qingdao, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Huanhe Dong ◽  
Ya Gao ◽  
Yong Fang ◽  
Mingshuo Liu ◽  
Yuan Kong
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Regression Trees ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indicator Variable ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Improved Model

There are many factors that affect short-term load forecasting performance, such as weather and holidays. However, most of the existing load forecasting models lack more detailed considerations for some special days. In this paper, the applicability of the bagged regression trees (BRT) model combined with eight variables is investigated to forecast short-term load in Qingdao. The comparative experiments show that the accuracy and speed of forecasting have some improvements using the BRT than the artificial neural network (ANN). Then, an indicator variable is newly proposed to capture the abnormal information during special days, which include national statutory holidays, bridging days, and proximity days. The BRT model combined with this indicator variable is tested on the load series measured in 2018. Experiments demonstrate that the improved model generates more accurate predictive results than BRT model combined with previously variables on special days.

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting Method based on Empirical Wavelet Decomposition and BLSTM Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yu Zhang ◽  
Stefanie Kuenzel ◽  
Nicolo Colombo ◽  
Chris Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential to the modern power system and smart grids; the utility can better implement demand-side management and operate the power system stable with a reliable forecasting system. The load demand contains a variety of different load components, and different loads operate with different frequencies. Conventional load forecasting models (linear regression (LR), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), deep neural network, etc.) ignore frequency domain and can only use time-domain load demand as inputs. To make full use of both time domain and frequency domain features of the load demand, a hybrid component decomposition and deep neural network load forecasting model is proposed in this paper. The proposed model first filters noises via wavelet-based denoising technique, then decomposes the original load demand into several sublayers to show the frequency features while the time domain information is preserved as well. Then bidirectional LSTM model is trained for each sub-layer independently. To better tunning the hyperparameters, a Bayesian hyperparameter optimization algorithm is adopted in this paper. Three case studies are designed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. From the results, it is found that the proposed model improves RMSE by 66.59% and 84.06%, comparing to other load forecasting models.<br>

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting Method based on Empirical Wavelet Decomposition and BLSTM Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yu Zhang ◽  
Stefanie Kuenzel ◽  
Nicolo Colombo ◽  
Chris Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential to the modern power system and smart grids; the utility can better implement demand-side management and operate the power system stable with a reliable forecasting system. The load demand contains a variety of different load components, and different loads operate with different frequencies. Conventional load forecasting models (linear regression (LR), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), deep neural network, etc.) ignore frequency domain and can only use time-domain load demand as inputs. To make full use of both time domain and frequency domain features of the load demand, a hybrid component decomposition and deep neural network load forecasting model is proposed in this paper. The proposed model first filters noises via wavelet-based denoising technique, then decomposes the original load demand into several sublayers to show the frequency features while the time domain information is preserved as well. Then bidirectional LSTM model is trained for each sub-layer independently. To better tunning the hyperparameters, a Bayesian hyperparameter optimization algorithm is adopted in this paper. Three case studies are designed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. From the results, it is found that the proposed model improves RMSE by 66.59% and 84.06%, comparing to other load forecasting models.<br>

Short-term Load Forecasting by Using Improved GEP and Abnormal Load Recognition

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Song Deng ◽  
Fulin Chen ◽  
Xia Dong ◽  
Guangwei Gao ◽  
Xindong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Gene Expression ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Detection Rate ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Normal Load ◽  
Gene Expression Programming ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Load forecasting in short term is very important to economic dispatch and safety assessment of power system. Although existing load forecasting in short-term algorithms have reached required forecast accuracy, most of the forecasting models are black boxes and cannot be constructed to display mathematical models. At the same time, because of the abnormal load caused by the failure of the load data collection device, time synchronization, and malicious tampering, the accuracy of the existing load forecasting models is greatly reduced. To address these problems, this article proposes a Short-Term Load Forecasting algorithm by using Improved Gene Expression Programming and Abnormal Load Recognition (STLF-IGEP_ALR). First, the Recognition algorithm of Abnormal Load based on Probability Distribution and Cross Validation is proposed. By analyzing the probability distribution of rows and columns in load data, and using the probability distribution of rows and columns for cross-validation, misjudgment of normal load in abnormal load data can be better solved. Second, by designing strategies for adaptive generation of population parameters, individual evolution of populations and dynamic adjustment of genetic operation probability, an Improved Gene Expression Programming based on Evolutionary Parameter Optimization is proposed. Finally, the experimental results on two real load datasets and one open load dataset show that compared with the existing abnormal data detection algorithms, the algorithm proposed in this article have higher advantages in missing detection rate, false detection rate and precision rate, and STLF-IGEP_ALR is superior to other short-term load forecasting algorithms in terms of the convergence speed, MAE, MAPE, RSME, and R 2 .

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