The Impact of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex Shift on the Arctic Oscillation

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (10) ◽  
pp. 4129-4143
Author(s):  
Yongjia Lu ◽  
Wenshou Tian ◽  
Jiankai Zhang ◽  
Jinlong Huang ◽  
Ruhua Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Eurasian Continent ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Action Center ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

AbstractUsing the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the time period 1979–2016, we analyzed the influence of the stratospheric polar vortex shift on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter (December–March). The results show that a shift in the stratospheric polar vortex toward the Eurasian continent is favorable for the occurrence of the negative phase of the AO. The duration of the AO events accompanied by the stratospheric polar vortex shift toward the Eurasian continent (AO-shift events) is longer than that of the remaining negative AO events (AO-noshift events), and the intensity of AO-shift events is greater than that of AO-noshift events from day 4 to day 15 of the life cycle of the events. The enhancement in the AO intensity during AO-shift events is likely due to downward extension of the stratospheric northern annular mode (NAM) signals and more poleward-propagating planetary waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere and their convergence in the mid-high latitudes. Furthermore, the polar vortex shift can lead to changes in the intensity of the three action centers in the AO spatial pattern at 500 hPa. In general, during AO-shift events, the three action centers are stronger than those during AO-noshift events. There is an overall westward shift of the Arctic action center during AO-shift events, which may be closely related to the changes of Greenland blocking frequency.

Improvement in Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation with a Realistic Ocean Initial Condition in a CGCM

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8951-8967 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hae-Jeong Kim ◽  
Joong-Bae Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Front Jet

Abstract This study verifies the impact of improved ocean initial conditions on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) forecast skill by assessing the one-month lead predictability of boreal winter AO using the Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Hindcast experiments were performed on two versions of the model, one does not use assimilated ocean initial data (V1.0) and one does (V1.1), and the results were comparatively analyzed. The forecast skill of V1.1 was superior to that of V1.0 in terms of the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed AO indices. In the regression analysis, V1.1 showed more realistic spatial similarities than V1.0 did in predicted sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation fields. The authors suggest the relative importance of the contribution of the ocean initial condition to the AO forecast skill was because the ocean data assimilation increased the predictability of the AO, to some extent, through the improved interaction between tropical forcing induced by realistic sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. In V1.1, as in the observation, the cold equatorial Pacific SST anomalies generated the weakened tropical convection and Hadley circulation over the Pacific, resulting in a decelerated subtropical jet and accelerated polar front jet in the extratropics. The intensified polar front jet implies a stronger stratospheric polar vortex relevant to the positive AO phase; hence, surface manifestations of the reflected positive AO phase were then induced through the downward propagation of the stratospheric polar vortex. The results suggest that properly assimilated initial ocean conditions might contribute to improve the predictability of global oscillations, such as the AO, through large-scale tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction.

scholarly journals A strong phase reversal of the Arctic Oscillation in midwinter 2015/2016: Role of the stratospheric polar vortex and tropospheric blocking

2016 ◽  
Vol 121 (22) ◽  
pp. 13,443-13,457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoffman H. N. Cheung ◽  
Wen Zhou ◽  
Marco Y. T. Leung ◽  
C. M. Shun ◽  
S. M. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Strong Phase ◽  
Phase Reversal ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

Impact of the November Eurasian teleconnection on the following January Arctic Oscillation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaobo Qiao
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Negative Phase ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Blocking High ◽  
The Impact

<p><span>Using observations and model simulations, the impact of the November Eurasian (EU) teleconnection on the following January Arctic Oscillation (Arctic Oscillation) and the possible mechanisms are investigated in this study.        We found that the positive (negative) phase of the November EU pattern favors the negative (positive) phase of AO during the subsequent January, and both the stratosphere-troposphere interactions</span><span>and the tropospheric Blocking High (BH) activity anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic sector play an important role in their connections. </span><span>When the EU pattern is positive (negative) phase in November, the increased (decreased) vertical wave activity over Eurasia and North Atlantic gradually weakens (enhances) the </span><span>Stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)</span><span>from November to the following early January, which is then conducive to a downward propagation of positive height anomalies from the </span><span>stratosphere to </span><span>troposphere. On the other hand, due to the persistent stronger (weaker) and southward (northward) shifted storm tracks </span><span>over the Euro-Atlantic sector from November to the following early January</span><span>, the </span><span>BH activities over this region are significantly decreased (increased) during the same period, which</span><span>then </span><span>contributes</span><span>to positive (negative) height anomalies over the Arctic via the propagation of a zonal wave number 1-3. As both the SPVand BHanomalies over the Euro-Atlantic sector reach the maximum around the late December-early January, the resultant equivalent barotropic AO dipole patterndevelops and finally establishes </span><span>during the following January.</span><span>These results are useful for the predictability of the middle winter climate</span></p>

scholarly journals Volcanic activity sparks the Arctic Oscillation

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Weizheng Qu ◽  
Fei Huang ◽  
Jinping Zhao ◽  
Ling Du ◽  
Yong Cao
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Vortex System ◽  
Significant Fluctuation ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

AbstractThe parasol effect of volcanic dust and aerosol caused by volcanic eruption results in the deepening and strengthening of the Arctic vortex system, thus stimulating or strengthening the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Three of the strongest AOs in more than a century have been linked to volcanic eruptions. Every significant fluctuation of the AO index (AOI = ΔH_middle latitudes − ΔH_Arctic) for many years has been associated with a volcanic eruption. Volcanic activity occurring at different locations in the Arctic vortex circulation will exert different effects on the polar vortex.

scholarly journals Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): A Protocol for Investigating the Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hitchcock ◽  
Amy Butler ◽  
Andrew Charlton-Perez ◽  
Chaim Garfinkel ◽  
Tim Stockdale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Winter Season ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude, stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortices in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal, ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models, and fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts.

High vs. low latitude influence on seasonal stratospheric pathways in the atmospheric model ICON

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael Köhler ◽  
Dörthe Handorf ◽  
Ralf Jaiser ◽  
Klaus Dethloff
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

<p>Stratospheric pathways play an important role in connecting distant anomaly patterns to each other on seasonal timescales. As long-lived stratospheric extreme events can influence the large-scale tropospheric circulation on timescales of multiple weeks, stratospheric pathways have been identified as one of the main potential sources for subseasonal to seasonal predictability in mid-latitudes. These pathways have been shown to connect Arctic anomalies to lower latitudes and vice versa. However, there is an ongoing discussion on how strong these stratospheric pathways are and how they exactly work.</p><p> </p><p>In this context, we investigate two strongly discussed stratospheric pathways by analysing a suite of seasonal experiments with the atmospheric model ICON: On the one hand, the effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the stratospheric polar vortex, and thus the circulation in mid and high latitudes in winter. And on the other hand, the effect of a rapidly changing Arctic on lower latitudes via the stratosphere. The former effect is simulated realistically by ICON, and the results from the ensemble simulations suggest that ENSO has an effect on the large-scale Northern Hemisphere winter circulation. The ICON experiments and the reanalysis exhibit a weakened stratospheric vortex in warm ENSO years. Furthermore, in particular in winter, warm ENSO events favour the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, whereas cold events favour the positive phase. The ICON simulations also suggest a significant effect of ENSO on the Atlantic-European sector in late winter. Unlike the effect of ENSO, ICON simulations and the reanalysis do not agree on the stratospheric pathway for Arctic-midlatitude linkages. Whereas the reanalysis exhibits a weakening of the stratospheric vortex in midwinter and a connected tropospheric negative Arctic Oscillation circulation response to amplified Arctic warming, this is not the case in the ICON simulations. Implications and potential reasons for this discrepancy are further analysed and discussed in this work.  </p>

Exploring the Tropospheric Response to Stratospheric Variability Using Lagged Quantile Regression

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathrin Finke ◽  
Abdel Hannachi
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Conditional Distribution ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Supplementary Information ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Response Variable ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Variability

<p>Stratospheric variability has become increasingly popular due to its potential impact on the tropospheric circulation. Extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex have been associated with reoccurring tropospheric weather patterns more than 2-3 weeks after the initial stratospheric signal. Standard linear regression methods used to assess the statistical stratosphere-troposphere connection estimate the distribution's mean effect of a stratospheric variable as a predictor on a tropospheric response variable. However,  supplementary information of the impact of extreme stratospheric behavior is hidden in the tails of the distribution, revealing a different behavior than the mean. Therefore, we use quantile regression, a method that enables us to model the complete conditional distribution of the response variable. This presentation explores various quantiles of the conditional distribution to investigate the impact of stratospheric variability on the tropospheric circulation using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Comparison between (lagged) linear and (lagged) quantile regression reveals significant differences making the latter method a neat tool that offers valuable information about the statistical connection between the stratosphere and the troposphere.</p>

scholarly journals A Numerical Sensitivity Study of the Influence of Siberian Snow on the Northern Annular Mode

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 592-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Peings ◽  
D. Saint-Martin ◽  
H. Douville
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Northern Annular Mode ◽  
Model Free ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

Abstract The climate version of the general circulation model Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE-Climat) is used to explore the relationship between the autumn Siberian snow and the subsequent winter northern annular mode by imposing snow anomalies over Siberia. As the model presents some biases in the representation of the polar vortex, a nudging methodology is used to obtain a more realistic but still interactive extratropical stratosphere in the model. Free and nudged sensitivity experiments are compared to discuss the dependence of the results on the northern stratosphere climatology. For each experiment, a positive snow mass anomaly imposed from October to March over Siberia leads to significant impacts on the winter atmospheric circulation in the extratropics. In line with previous studies, the model response resembles the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. The well-documented stratospheric pathway between snow and the Arctic Oscillation operates in the nudged experiment, while a more zonal propagation of the signal is found in the free experiment. Thus, the study provides two main findings: it supports the influence of Siberian snow on the winter extratropical circulation and highlights the importance of the northern stratosphere representation in the models to capture this teleconnection. These findings could have important implications for seasonal forecasting, as most of the operational models present biases similar to those of the ARPEGE-Climat model.

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