scholarly journals Taking into Account Atmospheric Uncertainty Improves Sequential Assimilation of SMOS Sea Ice Thickness Data in an Ice–Ocean Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Martin Losch ◽  
Svetlana N. Losa ◽  
Thomas Jung ◽  
Lars Nerger
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Ice Concentration

AbstractThe sensitivity of assimilating sea ice thickness data to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing fields is examined using ensemble-based data assimilation experiments with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) in the Arctic Ocean during November 2011–January 2012 and the Met Office (UKMO) ensemble atmospheric forecasts. The assimilation system is based on a local singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (LSEIK) filter. It combines sea ice thickness data derived from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite and Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) sea ice concentration data with the numerical model. The effect of representing atmospheric uncertainty implicit in the ensemble forcing is assessed by three different assimilation experiments. The first two experiments use a single deterministic forcing dataset and a different forgetting factor to inflate the ensemble spread. The third experiment uses 23 members of the UKMO atmospheric ensemble prediction system. It avoids additional ensemble inflation and is hence easier to implement. As expected, the model-data misfits are substantially reduced in all three experiments, but with the ensemble forcing the errors in the forecasts of sea ice concentration and thickness are smaller compared to the experiments with deterministic forcing. This is most likely because the ensemble forcing results in a more plausible spread of the model state ensemble, which represents model uncertainty and produces a better forecast.

Sea-ice freeboard or thickness? Design choices in the context of data assimilation in the coupled numerical prediction system EC-Earth3 for seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francois Massonnet ◽  
Sara Fleury ◽  
Florent Garnier ◽  
Ed Blockley ◽  
Pablo Ortega Montilla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

<p>It is well established that winter and spring Arctic sea-ice thickness anomalies are a key source of predictability for late summer sea-ice concentration. While numerical general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly used to perform seasonal predictions, they are not systematically taking advantage of the wealth of polar observations available. Data assimilation, the study of how to constrain GCMs to produce a physically consistent state given observations and their uncertainties, remains, therefore, an active area of research in the field of seasonal prediction. With the recent advent of satellite laser and radar altimetry, large-scale estimates of sea-ice thickness have become available for data assimilation in GCMs. However, the sea-ice thickness is never directly observed by altimeters, but rather deduced from the measured sea-ice freeboard (the height of the emerged part of the sea ice floe) based on several assumptions like the depth of snow on sea ice and its density, which are both often poorly estimated. Thus, observed sea-ice thickness estimates are potentially less reliable than sea-ice freeboard estimates. Here, using the EC-Earth3 coupled forecasting system and an ensemble Kalman filter, we perform a set of sensitivity tests to answer the following questions: (1) Does the assimilation of late spring observed sea-ice freeboard or thickness information yield more skilful predictions than no assimilation at all? (2) Should the sea-ice freeboard assimilation be preferred over sea-ice thickness assimilation? (3) Does the assimilation of observed sea-ice concentration provide further constraints on the prediction? We address these questions in the context of a realistic test case, the prediction of 2012 summer conditions, which led to the all-time record low in Arctic sea-ice extent. We finally formulate a set of recommendations for practitioners and future users of sea ice observations in the context of seasonal prediction.</p>

scholarly journals Brief communication: The challenge and benefit of using sea ice concentration satellite data products with uncertainty estimates in summer sea ice data assimilation

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 761-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Martin Losch ◽  
Svetlana N. Losa ◽  
Thomas Jung ◽  
Lars Nerger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Data Products

Abstract. Data assimilation experiments that aim at improving summer ice concentration and thickness forecasts in the Arctic are carried out. The data assimilation system used is based on the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) and a local singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (LSEIK) filter. The effect of using sea ice concentration satellite data products with appropriate uncertainty estimates is assessed by three different experiments using sea ice concentration data of the European Space Agency Sea Ice Climate Change Initiative (ESA SICCI) which are provided with a per-grid-cell physically based sea ice concentration uncertainty estimate. The first experiment uses the constant uncertainty, the second one imposes the provided SICCI uncertainty estimate, while the third experiment employs an elevated minimum uncertainty to account for a representation error. Using the observation uncertainties that are provided with the data improves the ensemble mean forecast of ice concentration compared to using constant data errors, but the thickness forecast, based on the sparsely available data, appears to be degraded. Further investigating this lack of positive impact on the sea ice thicknesses leads us to a fundamental mismatch between the satellite-based radiometric concentration and the modeled physical ice concentration in summer: the passive microwave sensors used for deriving the vast majority of the sea ice concentration satellite-based observations cannot distinguish ocean water (in leads) from melt water (in ponds). New data assimilation methodologies that fully account or mitigate this mismatch must be designed for successful assimilation of sea ice concentration satellite data in summer melt conditions. In our study, thickness forecasts can be slightly improved by adopting the pragmatic solution of raising the minimum observation uncertainty to inflate the data error and ensemble spread.

scholarly journals Better constraints on the sea-ice state using global sea-ice data assimilation

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1627-1667 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Mathiot ◽  
C. König Beatty ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
F. Massonnet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Short-term and decadal sea-ice prediction systems need a realistic initial state, generally obtained using ice-ocean model simulations with data assimilation. However, only sea-ice concentration and velocity data are currently assimilated. In this work, an Ensemble Kalman Filter system is used to assimilate observed ice concentration and freeboard (i.e. thickness of emerged sea ice) data into a global coupled ocean–sea-ice model. The impact and effectiveness of our data assimilation system is assessed in two steps: firstly, through the assimilation of synthetic data (i.e., model-generated data) and, secondly, through the assimilation of satellite data. While ice concentrations are available daily, freeboard data used in this study are only available during six one-month periods spread over 2005–2007. Our results show that the simulated Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extents are improved by the assimilation of synthetic ice concentration data. Assimilation of synthetic ice freeboard data improves the simulated sea-ice thickness field. Using real ice concentration data enhances the model realism in both hemispheres. Assimilation of ice concentration data significantly improves the total hemispheric sea-ice extent all year long, especially in summer. Combining the assimilation of ice freeboard and concentration data leads to better ice thickness, but does not further improve the ice extent. Moreover, the improvements in sea-ice thickness due to the assimilation of ice freeboard remain visible well beyond the assimilation periods.

scholarly journals Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System: evaluating sea-ice forecasts during Xuelong's first trans-Arctic Passage in summer 2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (253) ◽  
pp. 813-821 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longjiang Mu ◽  
Xi Liang ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Fei Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Ocean Prediction ◽  
Arctic Ice

AbstractIn an effort to improve the reliability of Arctic sea-ice predictions, an ensemble-based Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System (ArcIOPS) has been developed to meet operational demands. The system is based on a regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model. A localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman filter is used to assimilate the weekly merged CryoSat-2 and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity sea-ice thickness data together with the daily Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea-ice concentration data. The weather forecasts from the Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction drive the sea ice–ocean coupled model. The ensemble mean sea-ice forecasts were used to facilitate the Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in summer 2017. The forecasted sea-ice concentration is evaluated against AMSR2 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder sea-ice concentration data. The forecasted sea-ice thickness is compared to the in-situ observations and the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. These comparisons show the promising potential of ArcIOPS for operational Arctic sea-ice forecasts. Nevertheless, the forecast bias in the Beaufort Sea calls for a delicate parameter calibration and a better design of the assimilation system.

scholarly journals Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3784-3801 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R. Holland ◽  
Nicolas Bruneau ◽  
Clare Enright ◽  
Martin Losch ◽  
Nathan T. Kurtz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Concentration Changes

Abstract Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of the Southern Ocean and its sea ice, forced by atmospheric reanalyses, is used to assess 1992–2010 trends in ice thickness and volume. The model successfully reproduces observations of mean ice concentration, thickness, and drift, and decadal trends in ice concentration and drift, imparting some confidence in the hindcasted trends in ice thickness. The model suggests that overall Antarctic sea ice volume has increased by approximately 30 km3 yr−1 (0.4% yr−1) as an equal result of areal expansion (20 × 103 km2 yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1) and thickening (1.5 mm yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1). This ice volume increase is an order of magnitude smaller than the Arctic decrease, and about half the size of the increased freshwater supply from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Similarly to the observed ice concentration trends, the small overall increase in modeled ice volume is actually the residual of much larger opposing regional trends. Thickness changes near the ice edge follow observed concentration changes, with increasing concentration corresponding to increased thickness. Ice thickness increases are also found in the inner pack in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas, where the model suggests that observed ice-drift trends directed toward the coast have caused dynamical thickening in autumn and winter. Modeled changes are predominantly dynamic in origin in the Pacific sector and thermodynamic elsewhere.

scholarly journals Assimilating summer sea-ice concentration into a coupled ice–ocean model using a LSEIK filter

2015 ◽  
Vol 56 (69) ◽  
pp. 38-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Svetlana N. Losa ◽  
Martin Losch ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Zhanhai Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
In Situ Observation ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

AbstractThe decrease in summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic Ocean opens shipping routes and creates potential for many marine operations. For these activities accurate predictions of sea-ice conditions are required to maintain marine safety. In an attempt at Arctic sea-ice prediction, the summer of 2010 is selected to implement an Arctic sea-ice data assimilation (DA) study. The DA system is based on a regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) and a local singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (LSEIK) filter to assimilate Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) sea-ice concentration operational products from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Based on comparisons with both the assimilated NSIDC SSMIS concentration and concentration data from the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility, the forecasted sea-ice edge and concentration improve upon simulations without data assimilation. By the nature of the assimilation algorithm with multivariate covariance between ice concentration and thickness, sea-ice thickness fields are also updated, and the evaluation with in situ observation shows some improvement compared to the forecast without data assimilation.

scholarly journals Impact of the ice thickness distribution discretization on the sea ice concentration variability in the NEMO3.6–LIM3 global ocean–sea ice model

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 4773-4787
Author(s):  
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
François Massonnet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract. This study assesses the impact of different sea ice thickness distribution (ITD) discretizations on the sea ice concentration (SIC) variability in ocean stand-alone NEMO3.6–LIM3 simulations. Three ITD discretizations with different numbers of sea ice thickness categories and boundaries are evaluated against three different satellite products (hereafter referred to as “data”). Typical model and data interannual SIC variability is characterized by K-means clustering both in the Arctic and Antarctica between 1979 and 2014. We focus on two seasons, winter (January–March) and summer (August–October), in which correlation coefficients across clusters in individual months are largest. In the Arctic, clusters are computed before and after detrending the series with a second-degree polynomial to separate interannual from longer-term variability. The analysis shows that, before detrending, winter clusters reflect the SIC response to large-scale atmospheric variability at both poles, while summer clusters capture the negative and positive trends in Arctic and Antarctic SIC, respectively. After detrending, Arctic clusters reflect the SIC response to interannual atmospheric variability predominantly. The cluster analysis is complemented with a model–data comparison of the sea ice extent and SIC anomaly patterns. The single-category discretization shows the worst model–data agreement in the Arctic summer before detrending, related to a misrepresentation of the long-term melting trend. Similarly, increasing the number of thin categories reduces model–data agreement in the Arctic, due to a poor representation of the summer melting trend and an overly large winter sea ice volume associated with a net increase in basal ice growth. In contrast, more thin categories improve model realism in Antarctica, and more thick ones improve it in central Arctic regions with very thick ice. In all the analyses we nonetheless identify no optimal discretization. Our results thus suggest that no clear benefit in the representation of SIC variability is obtained from increasing the number of sea ice thickness categories beyond the current standard with five categories in NEMO3.6–LIM3.

scholarly journals On the retrieval of sea-ice thickness using SMOS polarization differences

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (251) ◽  
pp. 481-493
Author(s):  
MUKESH GUPTA ◽  
CAROLINA GABARRO ◽  
ANTONIO TURIEL ◽  
MARCOS PORTABELLA ◽  
JUSTINO MARTINEZ
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Operational Application ◽  
Ocean Salinity ◽  
Ice Concentration

ABSTRACTArctic sea ice is going through a dramatic change in its extent and volume at an unprecedented rate. Sea-ice thickness (SIT) is a controlling geophysical variable that needs to be understood with greater accuracy. For the first time, a SIT-retrieval method that exclusively uses only airborne SIT data for training the empirical algorithm to retrieve SIT from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) brightness temperature (TB) at different polarization is presented. A large amount of airborne SIT data has been used from various field campaigns in the Arctic conducted by different countries during 2011–15. The algorithm attempts to circumvent the issue related to discrimination between TB signatures of thin SIT versus low sea-ice concentration. The computed SIT has a rms error of 0.10 m, which seems reasonably good (as compared to the existing algorithms) for analysis at the used 25 km grid. This new SIT retrieval product is designed for direct operational application in ice prediction/climate models.

scholarly journals Better constraints on the sea-ice state using global sea-ice data assimilation

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1501-1515 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Mathiot ◽  
C. König Beatty ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
F. Massonnet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Short-term and decadal sea-ice prediction systems need a realistic initial state, generally obtained using ice–ocean model simulations with data assimilation. However, only sea-ice concentration and velocity data are currently assimilated. In this work, an ensemble Kalman filter system is used to assimilate observed ice concentration and freeboard (i.e. thickness of emerged) data into a global coupled ocean–sea-ice model. The impact and effectiveness of our data assimilation system is assessed in two steps: firstly, through the use of synthetic data (i.e. model-generated data), and secondly, through the assimilation of real satellite data. While ice concentrations are available daily, freeboard data used in this study are only available during six one-month periods spread over 2005–2007. Our results show that the simulated Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extents are improved by the assimilation of synthetic ice concentration data. Assimilation of synthetic ice freeboard data improves the simulated sea-ice thickness field. Using real ice concentration data enhances the model realism in both hemispheres. Assimilation of ice concentration data significantly improves the total hemispheric sea-ice extent all year long, especially in summer. Combining the assimilation of ice freeboard and concentration data leads to better ice thickness, but does not further improve the ice extent. Moreover, the improvements in sea-ice thickness due to the assimilation of ice freeboard remain visible well beyond the assimilation periods.

scholarly journals Impact of the ice thickness distribution discretization on the sea ice concentration variability in the NEMO3.6-LIM3 global ocean–sea ice model

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
François Massonnet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Single Category

Abstract. This study assesses the impact of different sea ice thickness distribution (ITD) configurations on the sea ice concentration (SIC) variability in ocean-standalone NEMO3.6-LIM3 simulations. Three ITD configurations with different numbers of sea ice thickness categories and boundaries are evaluated against three different satellite products (hereafter referred to as “data”). Typical model and data interannual SIC variability is characterized by k-means clustering both in the Arctic and Antarctica between 1979 and 2014 in two seasons, January–March and August–October, which show the largest coherence across clusters in individual months. Analysis in the Arctic is done before and after detrending the series with a 2nd degree polynomial to separate interannual from longer-term variability. Before detrending, winter clusters capture SIC response to atmospheric variability at both poles and summer cluster a positive and negative trend in the Arctic and Antarctic SIC respectively. After detrending, Arctic clusters reflect SIC response to interannual atmospheric variability predominantly. Model–data cluster comparison suggests that no specific ITD configuration or category number increases realism of the simulated Arctic and Antarctic SIC variability in winter. In the Arctic summer, more thin-ice categories decrease model–data agreement without detrending but increase agreement after detrending. Overall, a single-category configuration agrees the worst with data. Direct model–data comparison of SIC anomaly fields shows that more thick-ice categories improve winter SIC variability realism in Central Arctic regions with very thick ice. By contrast, more thin-ice categories reduce model–data agreement in the Central Arctic in summer, due to an overly large simulated sea ice volume. In summary, whereas better resolving thin ice in NEMO3.6-LIM3 can hamper model realism in the Arctic but improve it in Antarctica, more thick-ice categories increase realism in the Arctic winter. And although the single-category configuration performs the worst overall, no optimal configuration is identified. Our results suggest that no clear benefit is obtained from increasing the number of sea ice thickness categories beyond the current usual standard of 5 categories in NEMO3.6-LIM3.

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