Assessing the Forecast Impact of a Geostationary Microwave Sounder using Regional and Global OSSEs

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Wind Distribution

Abstract Forecast observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are conducted to assess the potential impact of geostationary microwave (GeoMW) sounder observations on numerical weather prediction forecasts. A regional OSSE is conducted using a tropical cyclone (TC) case that is very similar to hurricane Harvey (2017), as hurricanes are among the most devastating of weather-related natural disasters, and hurricane intensity continues to pose a significant challenge for numerical weather prediction. A global OSSE is conducted to assess the potential impact of a single GeoMW sounder centered over the continental United States versus two sounders positioned at the current locations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) East and West. It is found that assimilation of GeoMW soundings result in better characterization of the TC environment, especially before and during intensification, which leads to significant improvements in forecasts of TC track and intensity. TC vertical structure (warm core thermal perturbation and horizontal wind distribution) is also substantially improved, as are the surface wind and precipitation extremes. In the global OSSE, assimilation of GeoMW soundings leads to slight improvement globally and significant improvement regionally, with regional impact equal to or greater than nearly all other observation types.

Temporal Changes in Wind as Objects for Evaluating Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 1374-1389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daran L. Rife ◽  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Jason C. Knievel
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Wind Events

Abstract The study describes a method of evaluating numerical weather prediction models by comparing the characteristics of temporal changes in simulated and observed 10-m (AGL) winds. The method is demonstrated on a 1-yr collection of 1-day simulations by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) over southern New Mexico. Temporal objects, or wind events, are defined at the observation locations and at each grid point in the model domain as vector wind changes over 2 h. Changes above the uppermost quartile of the distributions in the observations and simulations are empirically classified as significant; their attributes are analyzed and interpreted. It is demonstrated that the model can discriminate between large and modest wind changes on a pointwise basis, suggesting that many forecast events have an observational counterpart. Spatial clusters of significant wind events are highly continuous in space and time. Such continuity suggests that displaying maps of surface wind changes with high temporal resolution can alert forecasters to the occurrence of important phenomena. Documented systematic errors in the amplitude, direction, and timing of wind events will allow forecasters to mentally adjust for biases in features forecast by the model.

Geophysical validation of WINDSAT surface wind data and its impact on numerical weather prediction

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Atlas ◽  
O. Reale ◽  
J. Ardizzone ◽  
J. Terry ◽  
J.-C. Jusem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Numerical Weather

scholarly journals Downscaling surface wind predictions from numerical weather prediction models in complex terrain with WindNinja

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. S. Wagenbrenner ◽  
J. M. Forthofer ◽  
B. K. Lamb ◽  
K. S. Shannon ◽  
B. W. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Numerical Weather

Abstract. Wind predictions in complex terrain are important for a number of applications. Dynamic downscaling of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds with a high resolution wind model is one way to obtain a wind forecast that accounts for local terrain effects, such as wind speed-up over ridges, flow channeling in valleys, flow separation around terrain obstacles, and flows induced by local surface heating and cooling. In this paper we investigate the ability of a mass-consistent wind model for downscaling near-surface wind predictions from four NWP models in complex terrain. Model predictions are compared with surface observations from a tall, isolated mountain. Downscaling improved near-surface wind forecasts under high-wind (near-neutral atmospheric stability) conditions. Results were mixed during upslope and downslope (non-neutral atmospheric stability) flow periods, although wind direction predictions generally improved with downscaling. This work constitutes evaluation of a diagnostic wind model at unprecedented high spatial resolution in terrain with topographical ruggedness approaching that of typical landscapes in the western US susceptible to wildland fire.

scholarly journals Impact of Radiosonde Balloon Drift on Numerical Weather Prediction and Verification

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 772-782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane Laroche ◽  
Réal Sarrazin
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Ascent Time ◽  
Verification Systems ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Range Forecasts

Abstract Radiosonde observations employed in real-time numerical weather prediction (NWP) applications are disseminated through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) using alphanumeric codes. These codes do not include information about the position and elapsed ascent time of the balloon. Consequently, the horizontal balloon drift has generally been either ignored or estimated in data assimilation systems for NWP. With the increasing resolution of atmospheric models, it is now important to consider the positions and times of radiosonde data in both data assimilation and forecast verification systems. This information is now available in the Binary Universal Form for the Representation of Meteorological Data (BUFR) code for radiosonde data. This latter code will progressively replace the alphanumeric codes for all radiosonde data transmitted on the GTS. As a result, a strategy should be adopted by NWP centers to deal with the various codes for radiosonde data during this transition. In this work, a method for estimating the balloon drift position from reported horizontal wind components and a representative elapsed ascent time profile are developed and tested. This allows for estimating the missing positions and times information of radiosonde data in alphanumeric reports, and then for processing them like those available in BUFR code. The impact of neglecting the balloon position in data assimilation and verification systems is shown to be significant in short-range forecasts in the upper troposphere and stratosphere, especially for the zonal wind field in the Northern Hemisphere winter season. Medium-range forecasts are also improved overall when the horizontal position of radiosonde data is retrieved.

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