The UK Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

The economy will grow by 2.4 per cent this year and 2.3 per cent in 2016.Unemployment rate to remain at 5¼ per cent throughout the rest of this year and next year.The rate of consumer price inflation rises from close to zero per cent in 2015 to 1.1 per cent in 2016.The Bank of England to raise interest rates at the start of 2016 and then gradually increase by 50 basis points a year, reaching 2 per cent by the end of 2018.

The UK Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 49-49
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
List Type ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

The UK economy is expected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2016, down from the 2.3 per cent predicted in the February Review. Growth will pick up to 2.7 per cent in 2017.We expect the Bank of England to start raising interest rates in November. Rates will then continue rising throughout 2017, ending the year at 1.5 per cent.Although broadly unaffected in 2016, GDP is projected to be 1 per cent lower than our baseline forecast in 2017 if the UK votes to leave the European Union in next month's referendum. In the longer run, GDP is expected to be between 1.5 and 3.7 per cent lower than our baseline forecast.

The UK economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 225 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
The Uk

The economy will grow by 1.2 per cent this year, and by 1.8 per cent in 2014.Unemployment rate will remain roughly flat at about 8 per cent both this year and next.Consumer price inflation will remain above 2½ per cent per annum this year but will fall back to 2.3 per cent, on average, next year.Public sector net borrowing will be around £112 billion (7 per cent of GDP) in 2013/14.

The UK economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 224 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
The Uk

The economy will grow by 0.9 per cent this year, and by 1.5 per cent in 2014.Unemployment rate will remain roughly flat at about 8 per cent both this year and next.Consumer price inflation will temporarily rise above 3 per cent this year but will fall back to 2.3 per cent, on average, next year.We expect a slight decline in public sector borrowing this year, to 7.1 per cent of GDP, although even that is only as a result of the change to the accounting treatment of the Asset Purchase Facility.

The UK Economy

2014 ◽  
Vol 229 ◽  
pp. F3-F3 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
List Type ◽  
The Uk

After growing by 3 per cent in 2014 the economy will grow by 2.3 per cent in 2015.Unemployment will drop below 6 per cent later this year.CPI inflation will be close to target this year and next; we expect interest rates to begin to rise gradually early next year.

The UK economy

1999 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 8-30
Author(s):  
Richard Kneller ◽  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Letter ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk ◽  
New Framework ◽  
Policy Committee

It is now just over two years since the new framework for monetary policy was announced and operational responsibility for the setting of interest rates was devolved to the independent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England. A key component of the new arrangements is their accountability. One of the ways in which this is meant to be achieved is by the ‘open letter’ system, whereby the Governor is to write to the Chancellor whenever inflation is one percentage point higher or lower than the target. It is remarkable that no open letters have yet had to be written.

The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Policy Committee

The economy will grow 2 per cent in 2016 before slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017: with the triggering of Article 50 there are downside risks to next year's outlook.Consumer price inflation will accelerate, peaking at around 4 per cent in the second half of 2017, and this will impact on real disposable incomeThe Monetary Policy Committee is expected to look through this near-term inflation and hold Bank Rate at ¼ per cent until 2019.Sterling is expected to remain at around $1.22 and €1.11 this year and next.

At a Glance…: The world economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
List Type ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Global Growth

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.

The UK Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 243 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Basis Point ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

GDP is forecast to grow by nearly 2 per cent this year and in 2019. Our forecasts have been revised higher since November.Annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3 per cent in the final quarter of 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.We expect the Bank of England to continue normalisation by raising Bank Rate in May by 25 basis point steps and every six months after that until the policy rate reaches 2 per cent.

At a glance…

1998 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 2-2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
House Prices ◽  
List Type ◽  
Earnings Growth

Outlook for 1998 •Sharp slowdown to 1.5 per cent growth in the first half; a one in four chance of a recession•Inflation to fall to 2.4 per cent by end-year despite average earnings growth of almost 5 per cent•Unemployment rate to fall below 5 per cent•Pound to fall to 2.80DM by end-year•Interest rates to peak at 7.5 per cent this spring coming down to 7.25 per cent this autumn•House prices to rise by 9 per cent.•Fiscal position improving but no case for policy looseningOutlook till end 2000 •Interest rates to fall to 5.25 per cent•Pound to fall to 2.60DM

The UK Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Student Loans ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
List Type ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The UK's future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided even though the Article 50 exit date is less than two months away. Brexit uncertainty has intensified since our last forecast and is now evident in various indicators.Our main forecast is conditional on a ‘soft’ Brexit scenario. Under this scenario, GDP growth stabilises at around 1.5 per cent this year before recovering to 1.7 per cent in 2020. CPI inflation eases to the target level of 2 per cent over this period.We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points in August. We also expect the Chancellor to spend more than the latest OBR forecast. That, together with the reclassification of student loans in public deficit data, will mean that the Chancellor is set to breach the fiscal mandate.There is a chance that the UK exits the EU without a deal at the end of March. Policymakers will have more room to inject stimulus if inflation expectations remain anchored.

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