The UK Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 243 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Basis Point ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

GDP is forecast to grow by nearly 2 per cent this year and in 2019. Our forecasts have been revised higher since November.Annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3 per cent in the final quarter of 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.We expect the Bank of England to continue normalisation by raising Bank Rate in May by 25 basis point steps and every six months after that until the policy rate reaches 2 per cent.

The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Policy Committee

The economy will grow 2 per cent in 2016 before slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017: with the triggering of Article 50 there are downside risks to next year's outlook.Consumer price inflation will accelerate, peaking at around 4 per cent in the second half of 2017, and this will impact on real disposable incomeThe Monetary Policy Committee is expected to look through this near-term inflation and hold Bank Rate at ¼ per cent until 2019.Sterling is expected to remain at around $1.22 and €1.11 this year and next.

The UK Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Student Loans ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
List Type ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The UK's future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided even though the Article 50 exit date is less than two months away. Brexit uncertainty has intensified since our last forecast and is now evident in various indicators.Our main forecast is conditional on a ‘soft’ Brexit scenario. Under this scenario, GDP growth stabilises at around 1.5 per cent this year before recovering to 1.7 per cent in 2020. CPI inflation eases to the target level of 2 per cent over this period.We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points in August. We also expect the Chancellor to spend more than the latest OBR forecast. That, together with the reclassification of student loans in public deficit data, will mean that the Chancellor is set to breach the fiscal mandate.There is a chance that the UK exits the EU without a deal at the end of March. Policymakers will have more room to inject stimulus if inflation expectations remain anchored.

The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2019 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Student Loans ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Potential Output Growth ◽  
The Uk

The UK's future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided. Brexit-related uncertainty has led to investment plans being deferred and increased stockbuilding.Under our main-case forecast, based on a ‘soft’ Brexit and continuing uncertainty, GDP growth continues at around 1½ per cent in 2019 and 2020, broadly in line with potential output growth, and the unemployment rate stays at around 4 per cent.CPI inflation is forecast to remain around 2 per cent per annum as faster unit labour cost growth is offset by slower import price inflation. With inflation stable at target, and only limited evidence of domestic inflationary pressure, Bank Rate remains at 0.75 per cent throughout this year before being raised to 1 per cent in the second half of 2020.We expect public spending to rise more quickly than currently planned. That, together with the forthcoming reclassification of student loans in the public finances, is likely to mean that the government's medium-term fiscal objectives will not be met.The current account deficit is forecast to fall from 4.2 per cent of GDP in 2019 to around 3 per cent in 2020, as domestic saving picks up relative to investment.

scholarly journals The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

We have revised lower our GDP forecast for 2018 to just under 1.5 per cent mainly due to weak performance in the first quarter. But the slowdown is likely to be temporary.The Commentary in this Review builds a case for higher government spending. We have, as a result, allowed for higher total managed expenditure resulting in a somewhat slower fiscal adjustment than presently planned.Following the exchange rate depreciation of June 2016, annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3.1 per cent in November 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.Because of the dip in economic performance we expect the timing of our next increase in Bank Rate to be delayed to August but reiterate that the MPC should remain on a gentle path of monetary policy normalisation.

scholarly journals The UK Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 242 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

GDP is forecast to grow by around 1½ per cent this year and in 2018. Our forecasts have been revised lower since August.Annual consumer price index inflation peaks at 3.2 per cent in the final quarter of this year before easing back to the target rate of 2 per cent in the second half of 2019. The risks to that forecast are tilted to the downside.We expect the Bank of England to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points this month and again every six months until Bank Rate reaches 2 per cent.

The UK Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

The economy will grow by 2.4 per cent this year and 2.3 per cent in 2016.Unemployment rate to remain at 5¼ per cent throughout the rest of this year and next year.The rate of consumer price inflation rises from close to zero per cent in 2015 to 1.1 per cent in 2016.The Bank of England to raise interest rates at the start of 2016 and then gradually increase by 50 basis points a year, reaching 2 per cent by the end of 2018.

scholarly journals Central Bank Reserves during the Bretton Woods Period: New data from France, the UK and Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Naef
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Bank Reserves ◽  
The Uk

This paper presents new daily data on central bank reserves during the Bretton Woods period. It is the first paper to provide daily data for the Bank of France, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank directly from these central bank’s archives. I discuss some of the issue with these data and make them available to other researchers for further analysis.

Prospects for the UK economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 233 ◽  
pp. F53-F84
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Oriol Carreras ◽  
Jack Meaning ◽  
Rebecca Piggott ◽  
James Warren
Keyword(s):  
National Statistics ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Research Institute

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, HM Treasury, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd, Office for National Statistics, Santander (UK) plc and by the members of the NiGEM users group.

Part I Financial Markets, 3 UK Central Banking and Financial Stability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morton Guy ◽  
Marsh Andrew
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
National Debt ◽  
Legal Tender ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
William Iii

This chapter talks about the Bank of England as the UK's central bank, which was established in 1694 by a Charter granted by King William III and Queen Mary II under the authority of an Act of Parliament. It explains the principal object of the Act in creating the Bank as a vehicle for raising money for the government. It also discusses how the Bank was closely associated with the raising and management of the national debt since its inception, which is a function that the Bank retained until the creation of the UK Debt Management Office (DMO) in 1998. This chapter highlights how the Bank raised money by issuing of banknotes, which became widely used as a convenient means of making large—value payments. It points out that the Bank of England notes were not formally legal tender until 1833.

Part IV Regulatory and Other Developments in the UK 2010‒2016, 13 Financial Services Act 2012: Changes to the Regulatory Architecture

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mccormick Roger ◽  
Stears Chris
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
New Product ◽  
Regulatory Structure ◽  
Regulatory Architecture ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Regulatory Approach ◽  
Significant Change ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Business Requirements ◽  
Individual Accountability

This chapter charts the passage of the Financial Services Act 2012 (FS Act 2012), from its policy conception through its consultation phase, and to its enactment. The FS Act 2012 received royal assent on 19 December 2012 and came into effect from 1 April 2013. The Act comprised 10 parts and 21 schedules and formally amended the Bank of England Act 1998, the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, and the Banking Act 2009, to give effect to the reforms. The enactment of the FS Act 2012 represented a significant change in not only the regulatory structure, but the regulatory approach to supervision and enforcement. The new mantra was far a more holistic and intrusive form of regulation. Whether viewed from the perspective of the prudential thresholds, conduct of business requirements and new product intervention powers, or in light of the enhanced investigatory and enforcement priorities and a focus on individual accountability, the reforms were significant.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document