The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Policy Committee

The economy will grow 2 per cent in 2016 before slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017: with the triggering of Article 50 there are downside risks to next year's outlook.Consumer price inflation will accelerate, peaking at around 4 per cent in the second half of 2017, and this will impact on real disposable incomeThe Monetary Policy Committee is expected to look through this near-term inflation and hold Bank Rate at ¼ per cent until 2019.Sterling is expected to remain at around $1.22 and €1.11 this year and next.

scholarly journals The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

We have revised lower our GDP forecast for 2018 to just under 1.5 per cent mainly due to weak performance in the first quarter. But the slowdown is likely to be temporary.The Commentary in this Review builds a case for higher government spending. We have, as a result, allowed for higher total managed expenditure resulting in a somewhat slower fiscal adjustment than presently planned.Following the exchange rate depreciation of June 2016, annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3.1 per cent in November 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.Because of the dip in economic performance we expect the timing of our next increase in Bank Rate to be delayed to August but reiterate that the MPC should remain on a gentle path of monetary policy normalisation.

The Inflation Forecast

2001 ◽  
Vol 175 ◽  
pp. 59-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. E. Goodhart
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Variable Time ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Alternative Procedures ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Policy Committee

Given the long and variable time lags between interest rate changes and responses in output and inflation, an inflation forecast must lie at the heart of monetary policy. In the UK the Bank's inflation forecast and Report were developed when the interest rate decision still lay with the Chancellor. Its, largely unchanged, continuation has led to certain tensions once that decision was delegated to a Monetary Policy Committee of independently responsible experts. In this paper the question is raised whether such a Committee should be jointly and individually responsible for the inflation forecast, and what might be considered as alternative procedures.

The UK economy

1999 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 8-30
Author(s):  
Richard Kneller ◽  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Letter ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk ◽  
New Framework ◽  
Policy Committee

It is now just over two years since the new framework for monetary policy was announced and operational responsibility for the setting of interest rates was devolved to the independent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England. A key component of the new arrangements is their accountability. One of the ways in which this is meant to be achieved is by the ‘open letter’ system, whereby the Governor is to write to the Chancellor whenever inflation is one percentage point higher or lower than the target. It is remarkable that no open letters have yet had to be written.

The UK Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Student Loans ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
List Type ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The UK's future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided even though the Article 50 exit date is less than two months away. Brexit uncertainty has intensified since our last forecast and is now evident in various indicators.Our main forecast is conditional on a ‘soft’ Brexit scenario. Under this scenario, GDP growth stabilises at around 1.5 per cent this year before recovering to 1.7 per cent in 2020. CPI inflation eases to the target level of 2 per cent over this period.We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points in August. We also expect the Chancellor to spend more than the latest OBR forecast. That, together with the reclassification of student loans in public deficit data, will mean that the Chancellor is set to breach the fiscal mandate.There is a chance that the UK exits the EU without a deal at the end of March. Policymakers will have more room to inject stimulus if inflation expectations remain anchored.

The UK Economy

2011 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
The State ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
List Type ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Pension Age ◽  
The Uk ◽  
State Pension

•The economy will grow by only 1.5 per cent in 2011 and 1.8 per cent in 2012.•Consumer price inflation will be 3.8 per cent this year but fall to 1.8 per cent in 2012.•The sharp rise in oil prices will raise inflation by over ½ percentage point in 2011.•Growth over the next two years will come mainly from net trade.•Real disposable income will fall for the second successive year, by 0.8 per cent in 2011.•There is a case for delaying some of the austerity programme but accelerating planned increases in the state pension age.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee: A View from a Parlimentary Specialist Advisor

2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 77-91
Author(s):  
Mike Wickens
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Select Committee ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
House Of Lords ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Policy Committee ◽  
The Way

This article assesses the new monetary policy regime introduced in the UK in 1997. It discusses the original remit given to the Bank of England, how it has been interpreted by the Bank and the conduct of monetary policy by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) subsequently. The article draws heavily on my experience as Specialist Adviser to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs over this whole period. I conclude that the MPC has been very successful in fulfilling its remit, but that a puzzle remains at the heart of the policy over whether the way inflation targeting has worked in practice is consistent with how it is said to work in theory.

scholarly journals Monetary policy committee size and inflation volatility

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 411-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Szilard Erhart ◽  
Harmen Lehment ◽  
Jose L. Vasquez Paz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Policy Committee

The UK Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
List Type ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
The Uk

Economy to grow 2.3 per cent in 2016 and 2.7 per cent in 2017.Inflation rate of just 0.3 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent in 2017, reaching 2.1 per cent in 2018.Bank Rate now expected to remain ½ per cent until the second half of 2016.Chancellor forecast to miss the primary target of the Fiscal Mandate by a slim margin.Productivity performance the largest domestic risk, but emerging market slowdowns, financial market volatility and policy missteps also represent risks.

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