scholarly journals The UK Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 242 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

GDP is forecast to grow by around 1½ per cent this year and in 2018. Our forecasts have been revised lower since August.Annual consumer price index inflation peaks at 3.2 per cent in the final quarter of this year before easing back to the target rate of 2 per cent in the second half of 2019. The risks to that forecast are tilted to the downside.We expect the Bank of England to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points this month and again every six months until Bank Rate reaches 2 per cent.

The UK Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 243 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Basis Point ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

GDP is forecast to grow by nearly 2 per cent this year and in 2019. Our forecasts have been revised higher since November.Annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3 per cent in the final quarter of 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.We expect the Bank of England to continue normalisation by raising Bank Rate in May by 25 basis point steps and every six months after that until the policy rate reaches 2 per cent.

The UK Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Student Loans ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
List Type ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The UK's future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided even though the Article 50 exit date is less than two months away. Brexit uncertainty has intensified since our last forecast and is now evident in various indicators.Our main forecast is conditional on a ‘soft’ Brexit scenario. Under this scenario, GDP growth stabilises at around 1.5 per cent this year before recovering to 1.7 per cent in 2020. CPI inflation eases to the target level of 2 per cent over this period.We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points in August. We also expect the Chancellor to spend more than the latest OBR forecast. That, together with the reclassification of student loans in public deficit data, will mean that the Chancellor is set to breach the fiscal mandate.There is a chance that the UK exits the EU without a deal at the end of March. Policymakers will have more room to inject stimulus if inflation expectations remain anchored.

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CPI AND PPI: EVIDENCE FROM THE UK, FRANCE AND GERMANY

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (05) ◽  
pp. 1081-1100
Author(s):  
KAI-YIN WOO ◽  
SHU-KAM LEE ◽  
CHO-YIU JOE NG
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models ◽  
The Cost

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) in the UK, France and Germany from 1997 to 2013. We employ the momentum-threshold autoregressive (MTAR) cointegration model for empirical analysis. The results show that the CPI and the PPI are cointegrated with bi-directional long-run Granger causality between CPI and PPI, signifying the existence of both demand-pull and the cost-push nature of inflation. The estimates of threshold vector error correction models (TVECMs) indicate asymmetric adjustments to equilibrium, where upward adjustments are statistically significant but downward adjustments are sluggish and insignificant. Moreover, we generate the unconditional half-life estimates as a measure of persistence, which reveal robust evidence of complex non-linearities in the adjustment process. Our overall results provide valuable information for policymakers to formulate inflation-control policies and optimal policy horizons under a non-linear framework.

The implications of the Boskin Report

1998 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 89-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Oulton
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
True Rate ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Price Quotes

The Boskin Commission has claimed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently overestimating the true rate of inflation by 1.1 percentage points per annum. This article assesses the evidence for this conclusion and its implications for the measurement of past and future US economic performance. If Boskin is right, US GDP growth in the period 1970 to 1996 has been underestimated by about 0.9 per cent per annum. Some at least of the methodological changes recommended by Boskin will probably be adopted. As a result US GDP growth will appear to rise, eventually by as much as 0.5 per cent per annum, even though no genuine improvement in economic performance has actually occurred. Boskin has implications for the UK too. Recent evidence suggests that use of a formula recommended by Boskin for averaging price quotes together can by itself reduce UK inflation by 0.4 per cent per annum.

The UK Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 241 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
The Uk

GDP is forecast to grow by 1.7 per cent this year and by 1.9 per cent next year.Annual consumer price index inflation peaks at 3.0 per cent in the last quarter of this year before easing back to the target rate of 2 per cent in the final quarter of 2019.We have brought forward the timing of the rate hike from the second quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of next year.In our forecast, the fiscal deficit is eliminated in 2022 and the debt-to-GDP ratio peaks in 2018/19.

Dampak Penerapan Perbankan Syari’ah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara: Kajian Perbandingan Malaysia dan Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Hansen Rusliani
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak perbankan syari’ah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dan Malaysia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data primer (interview) dan data sekunder dalam bentuk bulanan yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Bank Indonesia (SEKI-BI) dan Statistik Perbankan Syari’ah Bank Indonesia (SPS-BI) serta data dari Bank Negara Malaysia dan Departemen Statistik Malaysia dalam periode waktu kurun waktu 16 tahun, 2000 sampai dengan 2015. Observasi penelitian dilakukan di Indonesia dan Malaysia untuk memperkaya analisis. Penelitian ini menggunakan Vector Autoregression (VAR), Uji Kointegrasi serta dikombinasikan dengan Response Function (IRF) dan Decomposition (FEVD) untuk melihat interaksi antara faktor makro ekonomi dengan pembiayaan dalam jangka panjang. Adapun variabel yang digunakan adalah total pembiayan syari’ah (Total Syari’ah Financing) dan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) sebagai representasi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk tambahan variabel digunakan Consumer Price Index (CPI) sebagai representasi tingkat inflasi. Hipotesis penelitian yaitu terdapat pertumbuhan ekonomi setiap tahunnya dikedua negara tersebut pasca krisis moneter.

The 2018 revision of the Consumer Price Index geographic sample

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Paben ◽  
William Johnson ◽  
John Schilp
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index
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