The implications of the Boskin Report

1998 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 89-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Oulton
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
True Rate ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Price Quotes

The Boskin Commission has claimed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently overestimating the true rate of inflation by 1.1 percentage points per annum. This article assesses the evidence for this conclusion and its implications for the measurement of past and future US economic performance. If Boskin is right, US GDP growth in the period 1970 to 1996 has been underestimated by about 0.9 per cent per annum. Some at least of the methodological changes recommended by Boskin will probably be adopted. As a result US GDP growth will appear to rise, eventually by as much as 0.5 per cent per annum, even though no genuine improvement in economic performance has actually occurred. Boskin has implications for the UK too. Recent evidence suggests that use of a formula recommended by Boskin for averaging price quotes together can by itself reduce UK inflation by 0.4 per cent per annum.

Cost Impact of Switching Histamine2-Receptor Antagonists to Nonprescription Status

2002 ◽  
Vol 36 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1135-1141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle D Furler ◽  
Mark S Rolnick ◽  
Kathleen S Lawday ◽  
Miranda W Mak ◽  
Thomas R Einarson
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Status Change ◽  
Prescribing Practices ◽  
Receptor Antagonists ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND: There is a recent trend to switching medications from prescription to nonprescription status. Often, such switches are accompanied by dramatic changes in utilization due to increased availability or decreased insurance coverage. The histamine2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) underwent such status change in the UK in 1994, the US in 1995, and Canada in 1996. OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of the status change for H2RAs on the market for gastrointestinal (GI) agents in the US, UK, and Canada. METHODS: IMS market sales data from 1992 to 1997 were procured. All costs were converted to 1997 US dollars using the consumer price index. Per capita sales figures were determined using population data from the US Census Bureau's International Database. RESULTS: Overall spending on GI remedies increased in all 3 markets between 1992 and 1997; however, the contribution of prescription sales and number of prescriptions varied across the 3 countries. An increased market share for nonprescription H2RAs occurred in the US, correlating with a decline in prescription numbers for GI remedies. The opposing trend occurred in the UK, where market share of nonprescription H2RAs was minimal and use of prescription H2RAs increased. Prescription and nonprescription H2RA sales could not be differentiated for Canada. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of the H2RA status change varied across countries. Differences in utilization may be attributed to many factors such as differing healthcare systems, patient convenience, and physician prescribing practices. Further research is required to identify the reasons for differences in utilization and to quantify the potential clinical impact.

scholarly journals Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications

2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (3) ◽  
pp. 691-723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Broda ◽  
David E Weinstein
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
Large Sector ◽  
Product Creation ◽  
Cost Of Living Index

This paper describes the extent of product creation and destruction in a large sector of the US economy. We find four times more entry and exit in product markets than is found in labor markets because most product turnover happens within firms. Net product creation is strongly procyclical and primarily driven by creation rather than destruction. We find that a cost-of-living index that takes product turnover into account is 0.8 percentage points per year lower than a “fixed goods” price index like the CPI. The procyclicality of the bias implies that business cycles are more volatile than indicated by official statistics. (JEL E31, E32, L11, O31)

Measuring the permanent costs of Brexit

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. R46-R55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Erken ◽  
Raphie Hayat ◽  
Carlijn Prins ◽  
Marijn Heijmerikx ◽  
Inge de Vreede
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Specific Effects ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Macroeconometric Model ◽  
The Uk

We analyse the costs of Brexit. The results show that by 2030 a hard Brexit would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 18 percentage points compared to a situation where the UK continued its EU membership. The economic damage in our FTA and soft Brexit scenarios is less severe than in our hard Brexit scenario, although it will still cost the UK economy roughly 12.5 percentage points and 10 percentage points of cumulative GDP growth by 2030, respectively. We find much larger negative effects than most existing studies that use macroeconometric modelling to assess the effects of Brexit. This is due to two reasons. First, we use an improved tariff version of the macroeconometric model NiGEM, which enables us better to assess the negative impact of cost-push inflation resulting from imposed trade barriers. Second, we estimate a new productivity model for the UK, which allows us to gauge adequately the negative UK-specific effects on productivity caused by Brexit.

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CPI AND PPI: EVIDENCE FROM THE UK, FRANCE AND GERMANY

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (05) ◽  
pp. 1081-1100
Author(s):  
KAI-YIN WOO ◽  
SHU-KAM LEE ◽  
CHO-YIU JOE NG
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models ◽  
The Cost

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) in the UK, France and Germany from 1997 to 2013. We employ the momentum-threshold autoregressive (MTAR) cointegration model for empirical analysis. The results show that the CPI and the PPI are cointegrated with bi-directional long-run Granger causality between CPI and PPI, signifying the existence of both demand-pull and the cost-push nature of inflation. The estimates of threshold vector error correction models (TVECMs) indicate asymmetric adjustments to equilibrium, where upward adjustments are statistically significant but downward adjustments are sluggish and insignificant. Moreover, we generate the unconditional half-life estimates as a measure of persistence, which reveal robust evidence of complex non-linearities in the adjustment process. Our overall results provide valuable information for policymakers to formulate inflation-control policies and optimal policy horizons under a non-linear framework.

scholarly journals US Stock Market And Macroeconomic Factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Jareño ◽  
Loredana Negrut
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Relevant Factors

<p>This paper analyzes the relationship between the US stock market and some relevant US macroeconomic factors, such as gross domestic product, the consumer price index, the industrial production index, the unemployment rate and long-term interest rates. All the relevant factors show statistically significant relationships with the stock market except for the consumer price index, and the signs are consistent with the findings of previous literature.</p>

The World Economy

2004 ◽  
Vol 189 ◽  
pp. 8-36
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Output Gaps

Global inflationary pressures have been building over the last 12 months. These rising pressures reflect emergence from the global recession of 2001–2 and fiscal laxity in several of the world's largest economies, as well as a number of temporary factors such as rising commodity prices and indirect tax increases. Inflation expectations, as reflected by yield differences between indexed and ordinary government debt, have edged up in the US, the Euro Area and the UK, as illustrated in Chart 1. US and UK inflation expectations are about 0.8 percentage points higher than at the start of 2003, while Euro Area inflation expectations have risen by about 0.4 percentage points. Our inflation projections for the major economies are reported in Table 1. We forecast an acceleration of inflation in the US, Germany, France and the UK this year relative to 2003, and expect deflation in Japan to come to an end from the middle of 2004. Stronger inflationary pressures in the US partly reflect the positive output gap, while output gaps in Canada and the Euro Area are expected to remain negative until the end of 2005 and 2006, respectively. Our output gap estimates are illustrated in Chart 2.

Financial crises and fiscal policy impacts on North America

2008 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 14-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ali Orazgani
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Good Growth ◽  
Annual Basis ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Net Exports ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Impacts

The US economy appears to have avoided a technical recession this year. In the June issue of the quarterly accounts, which are considered as the first full estimate for the first quarter, first quarter GDP rose by 1 per cent on an annual basis, compared with 0.6 per cent growth recorded the quarter before. The relatively good growth was driven by net trade, with exports expanding at an annual rate of 5.3. The first-quarter contribution of net exports to GDP growth accounted for 0.8 percentage points of GDP growth expressed in annual terms.

scholarly journals Trade War: Likely Impact on India

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-118
Author(s):  
Rekha Misra ◽  
Sonam Choudhry
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Similarity Index ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Product Price ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War

The global financial crisis triggered the built up of domestic pressure in some countries to introduce protectionist measures against imports. The present discussion regarding the ‘trade war’ and ‘de-globalisation’ intensified after both the US and China escalated the tariff rates on imports originating in the US and China. This study evaluates the potential economic effects of the substantial tariff hikes by these two major economies on Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, particularly for India. The study adds to the existing literature on the trade war by examining potential impact on India’s exports, that is, both direct and indirect losses as well as benefits arising due to the trade war using the economic model based on the trend in trade flows, similarity index and supply chain networks using World Input-Output tables. The study uses the Vector Error Correction Model to empirically evaluate the pass-through of the tariff hike on Indian exports using bilateral real effective exchange rate (REER)-consumer price index and REER-product price index. The study finds that the US–China trade tussle may provide some opportunities in short to medium run for India as gains through trade deflection would be higher than the losses due to trade reduction. However, in the long-run, further escalation of tariffs will have negative impact at the global level. JEL Codes: F1, F62, F68

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