Who Punishes More? Partisanship, Punitive Policies, and the Puzzle of Democratic Governors

2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292098707
Author(s):  
Anna Gunderson
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Carceral State ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs ◽  
The Creation

The growth of the carceral state over the last few decades has been remarkable, with millions of Americans in prison, jail, on parole or probation. Political science explanations of this phenomenon identify partisanship as a key explanatory variable in the adoption of punitive policies; by this theory, Republicans are the driving force behind growing incarceration. This article argues this explanation is incomplete and instead emphasizes the bipartisan coalition that constructed the carceral state. I argue Democratic governors are incentivized to pursue more punitive policies to compete with Republicans when those Democrats are electorally vulnerable. I test this proposition using a series of regression discontinuity designs and find causal evidence for Democrats’ complicity in the expansion of the carceral state. Democratic governors who barely win their elections outspend and outincarcerate their Republican counterparts. This article highlights Democrats’ role as key architects in the creation of vast criminal justice institutions in the states when those Democrats are electorally vulnerable.

scholarly journals Equivalence Testing for Regression Discontinuity Designs

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Erin Hartman
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Function ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Equivalence Testing ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Equivalence Tests ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs ◽  
Testing Approach

Abstract Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are increasingly common in political science. They have many advantages, including a known and observable treatment assignment mechanism. The literature has emphasized the need for “falsification tests” and ways to assess the validity of the design. When implementing RD designs, researchers typically rely on two falsification tests, based on empirically testable implications of the identifying assumptions, to argue the design is credible. These tests, one for continuity in the regression function for a pretreatment covariate, and one for continuity in the density of the forcing variable, use a null of no difference in the parameter of interest at the discontinuity. Common practice can, incorrectly, conflate a failure to reject evidence of a flawed design with evidence that the design is credible. The well-known equivalence testing approach addresses these problems, but how to implement equivalence tests in the RD framework is not straightforward. This paper develops two equivalence tests tailored for RD designs that allow researchers to provide statistical evidence that the design is credible. Simulation studies show the superior performance of equivalence-based tests over tests-of-difference, as used in current practice. The tests are applied to the close elections RD data presented in Eggers et al. (2015b).

Regression discontinuity designs: a hands-on guide for practice

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Vicente Valentim ◽  
Ana Ruipérez Núñez ◽  
Elias Dinas
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Applied Research ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Stepping Stone ◽  
Hands On ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs

Abstract Regression discontinuity (RD) designs have become increasingly popular in political science, due to their ability to showcase causal effects under weak assumptions. This paper provides an intuition-based guide for the use of the RD in applied research. After an intuitive explanation of how the method works, we provide a checklist that can help researchers understand the main robustness checks they should run, and a quick introduction to software implementing the design. We also provide a list of classic designs and examples of their application in political science. We hope this article can constitute a stepping stone from which researchers interested in RD can jump to more advanced literature; and which makes researchers not interested in implementing RDs better consumers of research employing this design.

The Agreement of Uncontroversial Evidence and the Presumption of Innocence: An Insoluble Dilemma?

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Duff
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Criminal Trial ◽  
Presumption Of Innocence ◽  
Justice Process ◽  
Criminal Justice Process ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Relationship

On 1 April 1996, a rather odd provision was introduced into the Scottish criminal justice process, namely a duty on both prosecution and defence to try to agree uncontroversial evidence in advance of criminal trial.1 As far as the writer is aware, such a provision is unique, although the philosophy underlying its introduction is not totally alien to inquisitorial systems of criminal justice.2 What is particularly peculiar about this duty is that there is no sanction for a failure, however unreasonable, to agree uncontroversial evidence.3 The lack of a sanction resulted from a concern that the creation of any penalty would impinge unjustifiably upon the rights of the accused. The intention in this article is to explore in detail the relationship between the duty to agree uncontroversial evidence and the position of the accused, and to suggest that the imposition of a sanction for a breach of this duty is not as problematic as was thought by those responsible for the legislation.

Reconsideration of the Research Trajectory on the Carceral State

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-207
Author(s):  
Juliette Barbera
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Political Development ◽  
American Political Development ◽  
The Political ◽  
Carceral State ◽  
Research Framework ◽  
Research Production ◽  
Fields Of Study ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
And Control

For decades, both incarceration and research on the topic have proliferated. Disciplines within the Western sciences have studied the topic of incarceration through their respective lenses. Decades of data reflect trends and consequences of the carceral state, and based on that data the various disciplines have put forth arguments as to how the trends and consequences are of relevance to their respective fields of study. The research trajectory of incarceration research, however, overlooks the assumptions behind punishment and control and their institutionalization that produce and maintain the carceral state and its study. This omission of assumptions facilitates a focus on outcomes that serve to reinforce Western perspectives, and it contributes to the overall stagnation in the incarceration research produced in Western disciplines. An assessment of the study of the carceral state within the mainstream of American Political Development in the political science discipline provides an example of how the research framework contributes to the overall stagnation, even though the framework of the subfield allows for an historical institutionalization perspective. The theoretical perspectives of Cedric J. Robinson reveal the limits of Western lenses to critically assess the state. The alternative framework he provides to challenge the limits imposed on research production by Western perspectives applies to the argument presented here concerning the limitations that hamper the study of the carceral state.

scholarly journals The Choice of Neighborhood in Regression Discontinuity Designs

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-146
Author(s):  
Matias D. Cattaneo ◽  
Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs

The Causal Effect of Polls on Turnout Intention: A Local Randomization Regression Discontinuity Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Pablo Brugarolas ◽  
Luis Miller
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Causal Effect

Abstract This letter reports the results of a study that combined a unique natural experiment and a local randomization regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of polls on turnout intention. We found that the release of a poll increases turnout intention by 5%. This effect is robust to a number of falsification tests of predetermined covariates, placebo outcomes, and changes in the time window selected to estimate the effect. The letter discusses the advantages of the local randomization approach over the standard continuity-based design to study important cases in political science where the running variable is discrete; a method that may expand the range of empirical topics that can be analyzed using regression discontinuity methods.

scholarly journals Beyond Manipulation: Administrative Sorting in Regression Discontinuity Designs

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 164-181
Author(s):  
Cristian Crespo
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Internal Validity ◽  
Treatment Assignment ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs ◽  
Administrative Procedures

Abstract This paper elaborates on administrative sorting, a threat to internal validity that has been overlooked in the regression discontinuity (RD) literature. Variation in treatment assignment near the threshold may still not be as good as random even when individuals are unable to precisely manipulate the running variable. This can be the case when administrative procedures, beyond individuals’ control and knowledge, affect their position near the threshold non-randomly. If administrative sorting is not recognized it can be mistaken as manipulation, preventing fixing the running variable and leading to discarding viable RD research designs.

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