The Causal Effect of Polls on Turnout Intention: A Local Randomization Regression Discontinuity Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Pablo Brugarolas ◽  
Luis Miller
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Causal Effect

Abstract This letter reports the results of a study that combined a unique natural experiment and a local randomization regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of polls on turnout intention. We found that the release of a poll increases turnout intention by 5%. This effect is robust to a number of falsification tests of predetermined covariates, placebo outcomes, and changes in the time window selected to estimate the effect. The letter discusses the advantages of the local randomization approach over the standard continuity-based design to study important cases in political science where the running variable is discrete; a method that may expand the range of empirical topics that can be analyzed using regression discontinuity methods.

scholarly journals The Effect of Seeding on Tournament Outcomes: Evidence From a Regression-Discontinuity Design

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-136
Author(s):  
Oliver Engist ◽  
Erik Merkus ◽  
Felix Schafmeister
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Average Strength ◽  
Discontinuous Nature ◽  
Substantial Drop

Seeding in tournaments is a process of creating a schedule based on performance in the recent past. It is used in many athletic disciplines to ensure that particularly attractive match ups do not occur until the later stages of the tournament. We exploit the discontinuous nature of the seeding system in the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europa League as a natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of being seeded. We find no evidence that seeding itself contributes positively to the team’s success in the tournament. This finding is surprising given the substantial drop in average strength of the opponents for seeded teams and in striking opposition to the findings of previous studies.

scholarly journals Equivalence Testing for Regression Discontinuity Designs

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Erin Hartman
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Function ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Equivalence Testing ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Equivalence Tests ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs ◽  
Testing Approach

Abstract Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are increasingly common in political science. They have many advantages, including a known and observable treatment assignment mechanism. The literature has emphasized the need for “falsification tests” and ways to assess the validity of the design. When implementing RD designs, researchers typically rely on two falsification tests, based on empirically testable implications of the identifying assumptions, to argue the design is credible. These tests, one for continuity in the regression function for a pretreatment covariate, and one for continuity in the density of the forcing variable, use a null of no difference in the parameter of interest at the discontinuity. Common practice can, incorrectly, conflate a failure to reject evidence of a flawed design with evidence that the design is credible. The well-known equivalence testing approach addresses these problems, but how to implement equivalence tests in the RD framework is not straightforward. This paper develops two equivalence tests tailored for RD designs that allow researchers to provide statistical evidence that the design is credible. Simulation studies show the superior performance of equivalence-based tests over tests-of-difference, as used in current practice. The tests are applied to the close elections RD data presented in Eggers et al. (2015b).

scholarly journals Using a natural experiment to estimate the electoral consequences of terrorist attacks

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (42) ◽  
pp. 10624-10629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laia Balcells ◽  
Gerard Torrats-Espinosa
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Democratic Election ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Democratic Elections ◽  
The Military

This study investigates the consequences of terrorist attacks for political behavior by leveraging a natural experiment in Spain. We study eight attacks against civilians, members of the military, and police officers perpetrated between 1989 and 1997 by Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA), a Basque terrorist organization that was active between 1958 and 2011. We use nationally and regionally representative surveys that were being fielded when the attacks occurred to estimate the causal effect of terrorist violence on individuals’ intent to participate in democratic elections as well as on professed support for the incumbent party. We find that both lethal and nonlethal terrorist attacks significantly increase individuals’ intent to participate in a future democratic election. The magnitude of this impact is larger when attacks are directed against civilians than when directed against members of the military or the police. We find no evidence that the attacks change support for the incumbent party. These results suggest that terrorist attacks enhance political engagement of citizens.

scholarly journals Effect of Copayment on Dental Visits: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (12) ◽  
pp. 1356-1362
Author(s):  
U. Cooray ◽  
J. Aida ◽  
R.G. Watt ◽  
G. Tsakos ◽  
A. Heilmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Service Utilization ◽  
Universal Health Coverage ◽  
Service Use ◽  
Dental Treatment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Dental Service ◽  
Health Coverage ◽  
Dental Visits ◽  
Universal Health

Despite their prevalence and burdens, oral diseases are neglected in universal health coverage. In Japan, a 30% copayment (out of pocket) by the user and a 70% contribution by Japan’s universal health insurance (JUHI) are required for dental and medical services. From the age of 70 y, an additional 10% is offered by JUHI (copayment, 20%; JUHI, 80%). This study aimed to investigate the effect of cost on dental service use among older adults under the current JUHI system. A regression discontinuity quasi-experimental method was used to investigate the causal effect of the JUHI discount policy on dental visits based on cross-sectional data. Data were derived from the 2016 Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study. This analysis contained 7,161 participants who used JUHI, were aged 68 to 73 y, and responded to questions regarding past dental visits. Analyses were controlled for age, sex, number of teeth, and equalized household income. Mean ± SD age was 72.1 ± 0.79 y for the discount-eligible group and 68.9 ± 0.78 y for the noneligible group. During the past 12 mo, significantly more discount-eligible participants had visited dental services than noneligible participants (66.0% vs. 62.1% for treatment visits, 57.7% vs. 53.1% for checkups). After controlling for covariates, the effect of discount eligibility was significant on dental treatment visits (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.40) and dental checkups (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.44 to 1.54) in the regression discontinuity analysis. Similar findings were observed in triangular kernel-weighted models (OR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.34 to 1.44]; OR, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.47 to 1.56], respectively). JUHI copayment discount policy increases oral health service utilization among older Japanese. The price elasticity for dental checkup visits appears to be higher than for dental treatment visits. Hence, reforming the universal health coverage system to improve the affordability of relatively inexpensive preventive care could increase dental service utilization in Japan.

The Emperor Strikes Back: Political Status, Career Incentives and Grain Procurement during China's Great Leap Famine

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Kai-sing Kung
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Central Committee ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Political Career ◽  
Demonstration Effect ◽  
Political Status ◽  
Great Leap ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Career Incentives

Using China's Great Leap Famine as example, this article shows how political career incentives can produce disastrous outcomes under the well-intended policies of a dictator. By exploiting a regression discontinuity design, the study identifies the causal effect of membership status in the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee—full (FM) Versus alternate members (AM)—on grain procurement. It finds that the difference in grain procurement between AMs and FMs who ranked near the discontinuity threshold is three times that between all AMs and all FMs on average. This may explain why Mao exceptionally promoted some lower-ranked but radical FMs shortly before the Leap: to create a demonstration effect in order to spur other weakly motivated FMs into action.

Do Antitakeover Provisions Spur Corporate Innovation? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 1163-1194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Chemmanur ◽  
Xuan Tian
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Innovation Activities ◽  
Corporate Innovation ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Competitive Product

We study the effect of antitakeover provisions (ATPs) on innovation. To establish causality, we use a regression discontinuity approach that relies on locally exogenous variation generated by shareholder proposal votes. We find a positive, causal effect of ATPs on innovation. This positive effect is more pronounced in firms that are subject to a larger degree of information asymmetry and operate in more competitive product markets. The evidence suggests that ATPs help nurture innovation by insulating managers from short-term pressures arising from equity markets. Finally, the number of ATPs contributes positively to firm value for firms involved in intensive innovation activities.

scholarly journals Evaluating Econometric Evaluations of Post-Secondary Aid

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 502-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josh Angrist ◽  
David Autor ◽  
Sally Hudson ◽  
Amanda Pallais
Keyword(s):  
Financial Aid ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Post Secondary ◽  
Design Selection ◽  
Ongoing Evaluation

In an ongoing evaluation of post-secondary financial aid, we use random assignment to assess the causal effects of large privately-funded aid awards. Here, we compare the unbiased causal effect estimates from our RCT with two types of non-experimental econometric estimates. The first applies a selection-on-observables assumption in data from an earlier, nonrandomized cohort; the second uses a regression discontinuity design. Selection-on-observables methods generate estimates well below the experimental benchmark. Regression discontinuity estimates are similar to experimental estimates for students near the cutoff, but sensitive to controlling for the running variable, which is unusually coarse.

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