Probability reasoning in judicial fact-finding

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-94
Author(s):  
Ian Hunt ◽  
Justice Mostyn
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Legal Principles ◽  
Binary Method ◽  
Appeal Decision ◽  
Fact Finding

We argue that the laws of probability promote coherent fact-finding and avoid potentially unjust logical contradictions. But we do not argue that a probabilistic Bayesian approach is sufficient or even necessary for good fact-finding. First, we explain the use of probability reasoning in Re D (A Child) [2014] EWHC 121 (Fam) and Re L (A Child) [2017] EWHC 3707 (Fam). Then we criticise the attack on this probabilistic reasoning found in Re A (Children) [2018] EWCA Civ 1718, which is the appeal decision on Re L. We conclude that the attack is unjustified and that the probability statements in the two cases were both valid and useful. We also use probabilistic reasoning to enlighten legal principles related to inherent probability, the Binary Method and the blue bus paradox.

A Bayesian Approach to Supervisory Risk Control of AUVs Applied to Under-Ice Operations

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 16-39
Author(s):  
Jens E. Bremnes ◽  
Christoph A. Thieme ◽  
Asgeir J. Sørensen ◽  
Ingrid B. Utne ◽  
Petter Norgren
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Autonomous Underwater Vehicles ◽  
Risk Control ◽  
Doppler Velocity ◽  
Guidance Law ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Mission Success ◽  
Management Capabilities

AbstractAutonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are efficient sensor-carrying platforms for mapping and monitoring undersea ice. However, under-ice operations impose demanding requirements to the system, as it must deal with uncertain and unstructured environments, harsh environmental conditions, and reduced capabilities of the navigational sensors. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to supervisory risk control, with the objective of providing risk management capabilities to the control system. First, an altitude guidance law for following a contour of an ice surface via pitch control using measurements from a Doppler velocity log (DVL) is proposed. Furthermore, a Bayesian network (BN) for probabilistic reasoning over the current state of risk during the operation is developed. This is then extended to a decision network (DN) for autonomously adapting the behavior of the AUV in order to maximize the mission utility, subject to a constraint on the predicted risk from the risk model. The vehicle is thus able to autonomously adapt its behavior in response to its current belief about the risk. The goal of this work is to improve the AUV performance and likelihood of mission success. Results from a simulation study are presented in order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

scholarly journals The Legal Saga of Exclusion Clauses in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-52
Author(s):  
Tan Pei Meng
Keyword(s):  
Legal Reasoning ◽  
Federal Court ◽  
Contract Law ◽  
Breach Of Contract ◽  
Legal Risk ◽  
Business Organisation ◽  
Legal Principles ◽  
Legal Position ◽  
Appeal Decision ◽  
Court Of Appeal

One of the issues that could affect the success or the sustainability of a business organisation is its ability to manage the legal risk of liability that it faces in running its business. One common tool utilised by businesses is to insert an exclusion or limitation clause in their contracts. This would allow them to predict and apportion the possible amount of liability that could arise from breach of contract or negligence. The courts usually exercise caution in allowing such clauses to be enforced in order to prevent unfairness especially to the weaker party. Malaysia is of no exception. The Malaysian courts have display willingness to strike down the validity of an exclusion clause to ensure that a business organisation does not escape liability arising from its own fault. The Federal Court and the Court of Appeal decision in Bourke v CIMB Bank Bhd (2018) are good examples of such an approach. However, the legal reasoning adopted by the courts in this case has led to numerous confusions on the legal principles of contract law in Malaysia. It is therefore necessary to examine the legal position of exclusion clauses in Malaysia today and to determine what is the most appropriate way forward. This research found that there are difficulties with the legal coherency and application of Bourke in future cases.

Energy in Public Administration - Between Human Rights and Efficient Administration

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-241
Author(s):  
Mirko Pecaric
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Human Dignity ◽  
Human Mind ◽  
Public Affairs ◽  
Reciprocal Relation ◽  
Legal Principles ◽  
Informal Practices

This paper explores recent notions in public administration, which are intertwined and addressed to the administration of public affairs. On this basis it demonstrates that content of legal system is filled through the static legal principles and rules, but they receive their real content through the informal practices and conditions of the human mind. The paper concludes that discussed notions could have only one name, because they all are the synonyms of reciprocal relation between the human dignity and efficient administration.

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