Time-domain Markov chain Monte Carlo–based Bayesian damage detection of ballasted tracks using nonlinear ballast stiffness model

This article reports the development of a methodology for detecting ballast damage under a sleeper based on measured sleeper vibration following the Bayesian statistical system identification framework. To ensure the methodology is applicable under large amplitude vibration of the sleeper (e.g. under trainload), the nonlinear stress–strain behavior of railway ballast is considered. This, on one hand, significantly reduces the problem of modeling error, but, on the other hand, increases the number of uncertain model parameters. The uncertainty associated with the identified model parameters of the rail–sleeper–ballast system may be very high. To overcome this difficulty, the Markov chain Monte Carlo–based Bayesian model updating is adopted in the proposed methodology for the approximation of the posterior probability density function of uncertain model parameters. Owing to the nonlinear behavior of the system, the model updating is performed in the time domain instead of the modal domain. The applicability of the proposed damage detection methodology was first verified numerically using simulated impact hammer test data in two damaged cases perturbed with Gaussian white noise. Second, impact hammer tests of in situ sleepers in the full-scale in-door ballasted track test panel were carried out to collect data for the experimental verification of the proposed methodology. Artificial ballast damage was simulated under the target concrete sleeper by replacing normal-sized ballast particles (∼60 mm) by small-sized ballast particles (∼15 mm). The proposed methodology successfully identified the location and severity of ballast damage under the sleeper. From the calculated posterior marginal probability density functions of model parameters, one can quantify the uncertainties associated with the damage detection results. The proposed methodology is an essential step in the development of a long-term railway track health monitoring system utilizing train-induced vibration.