Prioritization of critical risk influencing factors in quantitative risk analyses for offshore petroleum installations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2094336
Author(s):  
Xingwei Zhen ◽  
Jan Erik Vinnem
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Influencing Factor ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
The Status

Comprehensive and detailed investigations of various major offshore accidents have shown that multifarious risk influencing factors including technical, human, and organizational factors have a significant impact on the nonlinear accident sequences. Parallel efforts are being made to develop quantitative risk analysis models involving risk influencing factors. It is recognized that in order to keep quantitative risk analyses in a manageable size, it is essential to restrict the number of risk influencing factors for each failure event. This article describes an effort to prioritize critical risk influencing factors for offshore maintenance work. A prioritization index integrating the weight and the status of each risk influencing factor is developed to determine the most appropriate prioritization. A hierarchy tree is developed to structure the identified risk influencing factors. The unified fuzzy scoring criterion is established for evaluating the risk influencing factors status. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approach stressing the consistency of the fuzzy pairwise comparison is applied to evaluate the priority of each risk influencing factor. A sensitivity study is conducted to investigate the criticality of risk influencing factors. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be a practical tool for prioritizing critical risk influencing factors effectively for all failure events in the quantitative risk analysis model. The method can also be useful in handling uncertainties arising in quantitative risk analyses.

scholarly journals Quantitative Risk Analysis of Offshore Fire and Explosion Based on the Analysis of Human and Organizational Factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Fu Wang ◽  
Yu Lian Li ◽  
Biao Zhang ◽  
Pei Na Yan ◽  
Li Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Fire And Explosion ◽  
Human And Organizational Factors ◽  
Explosion Risk

A dynamic risk analysis model of offshore fire and explosion is proposed in this paper. It considers the effect of human and organizational factors in a more explicit way than current traditional risk analysis methods. This paper begins with exploring the recent advances on offshore fire and explosion risk analysis theories, followed by briefly introducing the research techniques employed in the proposed hybrid causal logic model which consists of event tree, fault tree, Bayesian network, and system dynamics. Thereafter, it proposes a quantitative risk analysis framework. At last, the applicability of this model to the offshore platform is also discussed. It aims to provide guideline for risk analysis of offshore fire and explosion.

A Tool for GIS Based Risk Analysis for Transportation of Dangerous Goods on Road (the RAGISADR)

2016 ◽  
pp. 394-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhan Karabulut ◽  
Ebru V. Ocalir-Akunal
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Road ◽  
Dangerous Goods ◽  
International Regulations ◽  
Transport Of Dangerous Goods ◽  
Environmental Risk Analysis ◽  
Hierarchy Process

In this study, an environmental risk analysis model is developed as a decision support system (the RAGISADR) in order to assess environmental risks for transportation of dangerous goods. Transport of dangerous goods needs to be regulated to prevent accidents. Moving dangerous goods by road is governed by international regulations. GIS are used to quantify the factors on each link in the network that contribute to each of the evaluation criteria for a possible route. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to assign weights to factors. The priority weights of each environmental criteria is calculated by using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) before risk models are implemented in the road network of Izmir-Manisa-Aydin-Mugla-Denizli (Aegean Region of Turkey). The most convenient route according to the criteria set is determined. The results give decision maker the possibility to choose the best alternative among possible routes according to certain criteria.

A Tool for GIS Based Risk Analysis for Transportation of Dangerous Goods on Road (the RAGISADR)

2016 ◽  
pp. 752-772
Author(s):  
Serhan Karabulut ◽  
Ebru V. Ocalir-Akunal
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Road ◽  
Dangerous Goods ◽  
International Regulations ◽  
Transport Of Dangerous Goods ◽  
Environmental Risk Analysis ◽  
Hierarchy Process

In this study, an environmental risk analysis model is developed as a decision support system (the RAGISADR) in order to assess environmental risks for transportation of dangerous goods. Transport of dangerous goods needs to be regulated to prevent accidents. Moving dangerous goods by road is governed by international regulations. GIS are used to quantify the factors on each link in the network that contribute to each of the evaluation criteria for a possible route. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to assign weights to factors. The priority weights of each environmental criteria is calculated by using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) before risk models are implemented in the road network of Izmir-Manisa-Aydin-Mugla-Denizli (Aegean Region of Turkey). The most convenient route according to the criteria set is determined. The results give decision maker the possibility to choose the best alternative among possible routes according to certain criteria.

scholarly journals Research on CBM of the Intelligent Substation SCADA System

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3892
Author(s):  
Jyh-Cherng Gu ◽  
Chun-Hung Liu ◽  
Kai-Ying Chou ◽  
Ming-Ta Yang
Keyword(s):  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Fuzzy Evaluation ◽  
Monitoring And Control ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Scada System ◽  
The Status

An equipment status management and maintenance platform of an intelligent substation monitoring and control system is built in the Tai-Tam substation of the Taipower company. The real-time operating status of the equipment, such as the server, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) human–machine interface (HMI) software, switches, intelligent electronic devices (IEDs), merging units (MUs), as well as the entire SCADA system, are evaluated comprehensively. First, the status information of all equipment is collected, and the theory of relative deterioration degree (RDD) and fuzzy theory (FT) are applied to calculate the fuzzy evaluation matrix of the equipment influencing factors. Then, the subjective analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the objective entropy method for weighting are combined to calculate the comprehensive weights of the equipment influencing factors. Finally, the result of the equipment status evaluation is obtained using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method and is presented at the equipment status management and maintenance platform. Such equipment status evaluation results can be used by the inspection and maintenance personnel to determine the priority for equipment maintenance and repair. The result of this study may serve as a valuable reference to utility companies when making maintenance plans.

scholarly journals A MODEL FOR BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT: A CASE OF THE POSTAL COMPANY

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 564-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragan Lazarević ◽  
Momčilo Dobrodolac ◽  
Libor Švadlenka ◽  
Bojan Stanivuković
Keyword(s):  
Performance Improvement ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Influencing Factor ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Ahp Method ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Combined Application ◽  
Final Score ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this paper is to propose a management model which would assess the state of the business and indicate the improvement points, as well as to demonstrate the applicability of the model in a case of the postal company. An A’BA model is proposed which represents a combined application of Analytic Hierarchy Process – AHP method as a multi-criteria decision making tool and theory of business areas. The research consists of two parts. To define the most important influencing factor on business performance, the experts are interviewed. A new concept is proposed and applied in the process of aggregating experts’ assessments based on their mapping in a plane. This creates the appropriate surface, and the position of its centroid in relation to the Saaty’s scale defines the final score of pairwise comparison - an indicator of the relationship between two elements that are compared. In the second part, additional experts from the determined area are involved to define an approach for detailed analysis of the most important factor. In this case, the approach included a survey of employees based on the specialized questionnaire. The guidelines for business performance improvement are obtained.The aim of this paper is to propose a management model which would assess the state of the business and indicate the improvement points, as well as to demonstrate the applicability of the model in a case of the postal company. An A’BA model is proposed which represents a combined application of Analytic Hierarchy Process – AHP method as a multi-criteria decision making tool and theory of business areas. The research consists of two parts. To define the most important influencing factor on business performance, the experts are interviewed. A new concept is proposed and applied in the process of aggregating experts’ assessments based on their mapping in a plane. This creates the appropriate surface, and the position of its centroid in relation to the Saaty’s scale defines the final score of pairwise comparison - an indicator of the relationship between two elements that are compared. In the second part, additional experts from the determined area are involved to define an approach for detailed analysis of the most important factor. In this case, the approach included a survey of employees based on the specialized questionnaire. The guidelines for business performance improvement are obtained.

A Quantitative Risk Analysis Model of Scenarios Characterised by Explosion Fragments and Missiles

2004 ◽  
pp. 2944-2949
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Maschio ◽  
Domenica Cambria ◽  
Roberto Lisi ◽  
Maria Francesca Milazzo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis
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