Long-term effects of flooding on mortality in England and Wales, 1994-2005: controlled interrupted time-series analysis

AbstractMuch research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.

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Impact of the Expert Consensus on Carbapenem Consumption Trends and Patterns in Public Healthcare Institutes: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis, 2017–2020

Frontiers in Pharmacology ◽

10.3389/fphar.2021.739960 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Dan Ye ◽

Caijun Yang ◽

Wenjing Ji ◽

Jie Zheng ◽

Jingyi Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Expert Consensus ◽

Shaanxi Province ◽

Public Healthcare ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Series Analysis

Background: Carbapenems are considered the last line of defence against bacterial infections, but their high consumption and the resulting antibacterial resistance are an increasing global concern. In this context, the Chinese health authority issued an expert consensus on the clinical applications of carbapenems. However, the long- and short-term effects of the expert consensus on carbapenem use are not clear.Methods: This study was conducted in Shaanxi, a northwest province of China. We collected all available carbapenem procurement data between January 2017 and December 2020 from the Provincial Drug Centralized Bidding Procurement System. A quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis was used to evaluate the longitudinal effectiveness of expert consensus by measuring the change in the Defined Daily Dosesper 1,000 inhabitants per day (DID), the percentage of carbapenem expenditures to total antimicrobial expenditure, the total carbapenem expenditure, and the defined daily cost (DDDc). We used Stata SE version 15.0 for data analysis, and p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results: After the distribution of the expert consensus, the level (p = 0.769) and trend (p = 0.184) of DID decreased, but the differences were not statistically significant. The percentage of carbapenem expenditures to total antimicrobial expenditure decreased abruptly (p < 0.001) after the intervention, but the long-term trend was still upward. There was no statistically significant relationship between the release of the expert consensus and carbapenem expenditure in the long term, but there was a decreasing trend (p = 0.032). However, the expert consensus had a positive impact on the economic burden of carbapenem usage in patients, as the level (p < 0.001), and trend (p = 0.003) of DDDc significantly decreased.Conclusion: The long-term effects of the distribution of the expert consensus on the use and expenditure of carbapenems in public health institutions in Shaanxi Province were not optimal. It is time to set up more administrative measures and scientific supervision to establish a specific index to limit the application of carbapenems.

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008 Long-term Success with Diminished Opioid Prescribing After Men's Health Urologic Procedures Using Standardized Postoperative Opioid Prescribing Guidelines: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Journal of Sexual Medicine ◽

10.1016/j.jsxm.2021.01.078 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (3) ◽

pp. S4

Author(s):

B. Findlay ◽

C. Britton ◽

A. Glasgow ◽

M. Gettman ◽

M. Tyson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Men’S Health ◽

Men's Health ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Opioid Prescribing ◽

Series Analysis

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Long-term effects of a multifaceted intervention to encourage the choice of the oral route for proton pump inhibitors: an interrupted time-series analysis

BMJ Quality & Safety ◽

10.1136/qshc.2007.023887 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 18 (3) ◽

pp. 232-235 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

I Colombet ◽

B Sabatier ◽

F Gillaizeau ◽

P Prognon ◽

D Begue ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Proton Pump Inhibitors ◽

Proton Pump ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Oral Route ◽

Multifaceted Intervention ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Long Term Effects

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Trends in neurosurgical care in Western Uganda: an interrupted time series analysis

Neurosurgical FOCUS ◽

10.3171/2018.7.focus18270 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 45 (4) ◽

pp. E15 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jihad Abdelgadir ◽

Cyrus Elahi ◽

Jacquelyn Corley ◽

Kevin C. Wall ◽

Josephine N. Najjuma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Referral Hospital ◽

Steady Increase ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Regional Referral Hospital ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Western Uganda

OBJECTIVEIn addition to the rising burden of surgical disease globally, infrastructure and human resources for health remain a great challenge for low- and middle-income countries, especially in Uganda. In this study, the authors aim to explore the trends of neurosurgical care at a regional referral hospital in Uganda and assess the long-term impact of the institutional collaboration between Mulago National Referral Hospital and Duke University.METHODSAn interrupted time series is a quasi-experimental design used to evaluate the effects of an intervention on longitudinal data. The authors applied this design to evaluate the trends in monthly mortality rates for neurosurgery patients at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) from March 2013 to October 2015. They used segmented regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models for the analysis.RESULTSOver the study timeframe, MRRH experienced significant increases in referrals received (from 117 in 2013 to 211 in 2015), neurosurgery patients treated (from 337 in 2013 to 625 in 2015), and operations performed (from 61 in 2013 to 173 in 2015). Despite increasing patient volumes, the hospital achieved a significant reduction in hospital mortality during 2015 compared to prior years (p value = 0.0039).CONCLUSIONSThis interrupted time series analysis study showed improving trends of neurosurgical care in Western Uganda. There is a steady increase in volume accompanied by a sharp decrease in mortality through the years. Multiple factors are implicated in the significant increase in volume and decrease in mortality, including the addition of a part-time neurosurgeon, improvement in infrastructure, and increased experience. Further in-depth prospective studies exploring seasonality and long-term outcomes are warranted.

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