Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health
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1470-2738, 0143-005x

2022 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-217666
Author(s):  
Eric Winsberg ◽  
Stephanie Harvard

More people than ever are paying attention to philosophical questions about epidemiological models, including their susceptibility to the influence of social and ethical values, sufficiency to inform policy decisions under certain conditions, and even their fundamental nature. One important question pertains to the purposes of epidemiological models, for example, are COVID-19 models for ‘prediction’ or ‘projection’? Are they adequate for making causal inferences? Is one of their goals, or virtues, to change individual responses to the pandemic? In this essay, we offer our perspective on these questions and place them in the context of other recent philosophical arguments about epidemiological models. We argue that clarifying the intended purpose of a model, and assessing its adequacy for that purpose, are moral-epistemic duties, responsibilities which pertain to knowledge but have moral significance nonetheless. This moral significance, we argue, stems from the inherent value-ladenness of models, along with the potential for models to be used in political decision making in ways that conflict with liberal values and which could lead to downstream harms. Increasing conversation about the moral significance of modelling, we argue, could help us to resist further eroding our standards of democratic scrutiny in the COVID-19 era.


2022 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-217422
Author(s):  
Karolina Davidsen ◽  
Simon Carstensen ◽  
Margit Kriegbaum ◽  
Helle Bruunsgaard ◽  
Rikke Lund

BackgroundPartnership breakups and living alone are associated with several adverse health outcomes. The aim of this study, carried out in Denmark, is to investigate whether accumulated numbers of divorces/partnership breakups or years lived alone across 26 years of adult life are associated with levels of inflammation, and if vulnerability with regards to gender or educational level can be identified.Methods4835 participants from the Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank (CAMB) aged 48–62 years were included. Data on accumulated numbers of partnership breakups and years living alone were retrieved from a national standardised annual register. Inflammatory markers interleukin 6 (IL-6) and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were measured in blood samples. Multivariate linear regression analyses were adjusted for age, educational level, early major life events, body mass index, chronic diseases, medicinal intake affecting inflammation, acute inflammation and personality scores.ResultsFor men, an association was found between an increasing number of partnership breakups or number of years living alone and higher levels of inflammatory markers. No such association was found for women, and no evidence of partnership breakups and educational level having a joint effect was found for either gender.ConclusionThe findings suggest a strong association between years lived alone or accumulated number of partnership breakups and low-grade inflammation for middle-aged men, but not for women. Among those of either sex with a lower level of education, no specific vulnerability to accumulated years lived alone or number of breakups was identified.


2022 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-218278
Author(s):  
Chioma Adanma Nwaru ◽  
Ailiana Santosa ◽  
Stefan Franzén ◽  
Fredrik Nyberg

BackgroundResearch on occupation and risk of COVID-19 among foreign-born workers is lacking. We investigated whether working in essential occupations was associated with COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalisation and intensive care unit (ICU) admission and whether foreign-born workers in similar occupations as Swedish-born individuals had a higher risk of the studied outcomes.MethodsOccupational data (2018–2019) of 326 052 employees (20–65 years) who were resident in Sweden as of 1 January 2020 were linked to COVID-19 data registered from 1 January 2020 to 28 February 2021. We analysed the risk of COVID-19 outcomes in different occupational groups and in four immigrant/occupation intersectional groups using Cox proportional hazards regression with adjustments for sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics and pre-existing comorbidities.ResultsWe identified 29797, 1069 and 152 cases of COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalisations and ICU admissions, respectively, in our cohort. Workers in essential occupations had an elevated risk of COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalisation, and ICU admissions. Healthcare workers had a higher risk of all the outcomes compared with other essential workers. Relative to Swedish-born workers in non-essential occupations, foreign-born workers in essential occupations had 1.85 (95% CI 1.78 to 1.93), 3.80 (95% CI 3.17 to 4.55) and 3.79 (95% CI 2.33 to 6.14) times higher risk of COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalisation and ICU admission, respectively. The corresponding risks among Swedish-born workers in essential occupations were 1.44 (95% CI 1.40 to 1.49), 1.30 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.56) and 1.46 (95% CI 0.90 to 2.38).ConclusionOccupation was associated with COVID-19 outcomes and contributed to the burden of COVID-19 among foreign-born individuals in this study.


2022 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-217754
Author(s):  
Lixin Li ◽  
Yanpeng Wu ◽  
Yao Yang ◽  
Ying Wu ◽  
Yan Zhuang ◽  
...  

BackgroundThe relationship between maternal education and adverse pregnancy outcomes is well documented. However, limited research has investigated maternal educational disparities in adverse pregnancy outcomes in China. This study examined maternal educational inequalities associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes in rural China.MethodsWe conducted a population-based cohort study using participants enrolled in the National Free Preconception Health Examination Project in Yunnan province from 2010 to 2018. The primary outcome was stillbirth, and the secondary outcome was adverse pregnancy outcomes, defined as a composite event of stillbirth, preterm birth or low birth weight. The study was restricted to singleton births at 20–42 weeks’ gestation. Univariate and multivariate log-binomial regression models were performed to estimate crude risk ratios (RRs) and confounding-adjusted RRs (ARRs) for stillbirth and adverse pregnancy outcomes according to maternal education level.ResultsA total of 197 722 singleton births were included in the study. Compared with mid-educated women, low-educated women were at a significantly increased risk of stillbirth (ARR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.38) and adverse pregnancy outcomes (ARR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.16). However, the risk of stillbirth (ARR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.35) was significantly higher for high-educated women compared with mid-educated women.ConclusionCompared with women with medium education level, women with lower education level were more likely to experience adverse pregnancy outcomes, including stillbirth, and women with higher education level were more likely to experience stillbirth.


2022 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-217006
Author(s):  
Kan Sun ◽  
Diaozhu Lin ◽  
Mian Li ◽  
Yiming Mu ◽  
Jiajun Zhao ◽  
...  

BackgroundEducation attainment can improve life expectancy and guide healthy behaviours throughout an entire lifetime. A nationwide longitudinal study of the association of education status with the risk of hypertension and its control in China is lacking.MethodsThe China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort Study is a multicentre, population-based, prospective cohort study. We performed the baseline survey from 2011 to 2012. A follow-up visit was conducted during 2014–2016. 101 959 subjects were included in the final data analyses. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the associations of education levels with the risk of hypertension and uncontrolled hypertension.ResultsDuring follow-up, 11 189 (19.9%) participants had developed hypertension among subjects without hypertension at baseline. Among the participants with hypertension at baseline, only 40.6% had controlled hypertension. Compared with the participants’ education level at elementary school and below, the multivariable-adjusted HR for incident hypertension was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.80) in those with a middle school education level and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.70) in those with a high school degree or above. Correspondingly, multivariable-adjusted HRs associated with uncontrolled hypertension were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.87 to 0.92) in participants with a middle school education level and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.88) in participants with a high school degree or above level.ConclusionParticipants with education attainment at elementary school and below exhibited excess risks of newly diagnosed hypertension and worse blood pressure control compared with individuals with education attainment at middle school or above.


2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-218039
Author(s):  
Robert Tait ◽  
Rebecca Ivers ◽  
Jennifer L Marino ◽  
Dorota Doherty ◽  
Petra L Graham ◽  
...  

BackgroundRoad traffic crashes (RTC) are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in young people. Severe mental health and behavioural conditions increase the likelihood of RTC, as do a range of driving-risk activities.MethodWe used data from the Raine Study, a prebirth cohort from Perth, Australia, to assess the relationship between measures of common mental health or behavioural conditions (Child Behavior Checklist Internalising and Externalising scores) at age 17 and subsequent RTC by 27 years, controlling for substance use and driving-risk activities.ResultsBy 27 years of age, of 937 participants, 386 (41.2%) reported zero crashes and 551 (58.8%) reported ≥1 crashes. In the baseline Poisson model, increased Externalising scores (eg, aggression and delinquency) were associated with increased RTC (incidence rate ratio (IRR)=1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.02): increased Internalising scores (eg, anxiety and depression) were associated with fewer RTC (IRR=0.99, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.00). In the fully adjusted model, the mental health measures were not significant (Externalising IRR=1.01, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.02: Internalising IRR=0.99, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.00). Risky driver activities, such as falling asleep while driving (IRR=1.34), more frequent use of a hands-free telephone (IRR=1.35) and more frequent hostility towards other drivers (IRR=1.30) increased the rate of RTC.ConclusionMeasures of mental health scores at age 17 were not predictive of subsequent RTC, after adjusting for measures of driving-risk activities. We need to better understand the determinants of externalising and risky driving behaviours if we are to address the increased risk of RTC.


2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-217237
Author(s):  
Chengyi Ding ◽  
Dara O'Neill ◽  
Annie Britton

BackgroundTo examine the longitudinal trajectories of alcohol consumption prior to and following the diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases (CVD).MethodsWe conducted a case–control study of 2501 incident cases of angina, myocardial infarction or stroke and 10 001 matched controls without the condition. Repeated measures of alcohol were centred on the date of diagnosis, spanning up to 30 years before and after CVD onset. Mean trajectories of weekly consumption were estimated using growth curve models.ResultsFor trajectories prior to diagnosis, mean volume of alcohol consumed among male cases increased over time, peaking at around 8 years before diagnosis at 95 (95% CI 60 to 130) g/week and declining afterwards. Trajectories following diagnosis showed mean consumption in male cases dropped from 87 (95% CI 54 to 120) g/week to 74 (95% CI 45 to 102) g/week after the date of diagnosis and then slightly rose to 78 (95% CI 40 to 116) g/week at the subsequent 3.5 years, before gradually declining to 31 (95% CI 2 to 61) g/week at 30 years after diagnosis. Mean consumption among female cases remained stable prior to diagnosis (at about 30 g/week), fell marginally to 25 (95% CI 20 to 30) g/week after the date of diagnosis and kept decreasing afterwards. Similar trajectories were obtained in cases and controls.ConclusionsThis is the first attempt to show how patients with CVD change their drinking volume over such a wide time span. Future research needs to establish insight into drinking behaviour in other ways (such as frequency and context) and address the impact of changes in drinking on patients with CVD.


2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-217856
Author(s):  
Fredrik Methi ◽  
Rannveig Kaldager Hart ◽  
Anna Aasen Godøy ◽  
Silje Bakken Jørgensen ◽  
Oliver Kacelnik ◽  
...  

BackgroundMinority groups and immigrants have been hit disproportionally hard by COVID-19 in many developed countries, including Norway.MethodsUsing individual-level registry data of all Norwegian residents, we compared infections across all multiperson households. A household with at least one member born abroad was defined as an immigrant household. In households where at least one person tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from 1 August 2020 to 1 May 2021, we calculated secondary attack rates (SARs) as the per cent of other household members testing positive within 14 days. Logistic regression was used to adjust for sex, age, household composition and geography.ResultsAmong all multiperson households in Norway (n=1 422 411), at least one member had been infected in 3.7% of the 343 017 immigrant households and 1.4% in the 1 079 394 households with only Norwegian-born members. SARs were higher in immigrant (32%) than Norwegian-born households (20%). SARs differed considerably by region, and were particularly high in households from West Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa and Eastern Europe, also after adjustment for sex and age of the secondary case, household composition and geography.ConclusionSARS-CoV-2 is more frequently introduced into multiperson immigrant households than into households with only Norwegian-born members, and transmission within the household occurs more frequently in immigrant households. The results are likely related to living conditions, family composition or differences in social interaction, emphasising the need to prevent introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into these vulnerable households.


2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-215716
Author(s):  
Ondřej Mikeš ◽  
Anne Lise Brantsæter ◽  
Helle Katrine Knutsen ◽  
Liv Elin Torheim ◽  
Julie Bienertová Vašků ◽  
...  

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to identify dietary patterns in a Czech pregnancy cohort established in the early postcommunist era and investigate associations between dietary patterns, maternal characteristics and birth outcomes.MethodsPregnant women were recruited for the Czech part of the European Longitudinal Study of Pregnancy and Childhood. A self-reported questionnaire answered in late pregnancy was used to assess information about the weekly intake of 43 food items. Information about birth outcomes (birth weight, height, ponderal index, head circumference, cephalisation index, gestational length and Apgar score) was obtained from the National Registry of Newborns. Complete details on diet and birth outcomes were available for 4320 mother–infant pairs.Results and conclusionThe food items were aggregated into 28 variables and used for extraction of two dietary patterns by principal component factor analysis. The patterns were denoted ‘unhealthy’ and ‘healthy/traditional’ based on the food items with the highest factor loadings on each pattern. The ‘unhealthy’ pattern had high positive loadings on meat, processed food and confectionaries. In contrast, the ‘healthy/traditional’ pattern had high positive loadings on vegetables, dairy, fruits and wholemeal bread. Following adjustment for covariates, we found that high adherence to the unhealthy pattern (expressed as beta for 1 unit increase in pattern score), that is, the higher consumption of less healthy foods, was associated with lower birth weight: −23.8 g (95% CI −44.4 to −3.2) and length: −0.10 cm (95% CI −0.19 to −0.01) and increased cephalisation index: 0.91 μm/g (95% CI 0.23 to 1.60). The ‘healthy/traditional’ pattern was not associated with any birth outcomes. This study supports the recommendation to eat a healthy and balanced diet during pregnancy.


2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-218211
Author(s):  
Finn Diderichsen ◽  
Anne Mette Bender ◽  
Alice Clark Lyth ◽  
Ingelise Andersen ◽  
Jacob Pedersen ◽  
...  

BackgroundThe social inequality in mortality is due to differential incidence of several disorders and injury types, as well as differential survival. The resulting clustering and possible interaction in disadvantaged groups of several disorders make multimorbidity a potentially important component in the health divide. This study decomposes the effect of education on mortality into a direct effect, a pure indirect effect mediated by multimorbidity and a mediated interaction between education and multimorbidity.MethodsThe study uses the Danish population registers on the total Danish population aged 45–69 years. A multimorbidity index based on all somatic and psychiatric hospital contacts as well as prescribed medicines includes 22 diagnostic groups weighted together by their 5 years mortality risk as weight. The Aalen additive hazard model is used to estimate and decompose the 5 years risk difference in absolute numbers of deaths according to educational status.ResultsMost (69%–79%) of the effect is direct not involving multimorbidity, and the mediated effect is for low educated women 155 per 100 000 of which 87 is an effect of mediated interaction. For low educated men, the mediated effect is 250 per 100 000 of which 93 is mediated interaction.ConclusionMultimorbidity plays an important role in the social inequality in mortality among middle aged in Denmark and mediated interaction represents 5%–17%. As multimorbidity is a growing challenge in specialised health systems, the mediated interaction might be a relevant indicator of inequities in care of multimorbid patients.


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