scholarly journals Effects of the Convention on the Rights of the Child on child mortality and vaccination rates: a synthetic control analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary W. Reinbold
Keyword(s):  
Child Mortality ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Rights Of The Child

scholarly journals Effect of democratic reforms on child mortality: a synthetic control analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (9) ◽  
pp. e627-e632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Pieters ◽  
Daniele Curzi ◽  
Alessandro Olper ◽  
Johan Swinnen
Keyword(s):  
Child Mortality ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Synthetic Control

scholarly journals Did the UN convention on the rights of the child reduce child mortality around the world? An interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Tait ◽  
Abtin Parnia ◽  
Nishan Zewge-Abubaker ◽  
Wendy H. Wong ◽  
Heather Smith-Cannoy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Rights Of The Child ◽  
Reduce Child Mortality ◽  
The World

scholarly journals 1620. Effectiveness of the 2016 California Policy Eliminating Non-Medical Exemptions on Vaccine Coverage: A Synthetic Control Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S591-S591
Author(s):  
Sindiso Nyathi ◽  
Hannah Karpel ◽  
Kristin L Sainani ◽  
Yvonne Maldonado ◽  
Peter J Hotez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Policies ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Permutation Testing ◽  
Personal Belief ◽  
Post Period

Abstract Background Vaccine hesitancy in low vaccine coverage “hot spots” has led to recent outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases across the United States. State policies to improve vaccine coverage by restricting non-medical (personal belief) exemptions are heavily debated and their effectiveness is unclear due to limited rigorous policy analysis. In 2016, a California policy (SB 277) eliminated non-medical exemptions from kindergarten requirements. To address the ongoing debate on such policies, we performed a quasi-experimental, controlled analysis of the policy’s impact on vaccine and exemption outcomes. Methods We used state vaccine coverage and exemption data (2011–2017) from the CDC and health data from public sources. We prespecified a primary outcome of MMR coverage (%) and secondary outcomes of medical and non-medical exemptions (%). We included covariates related to socioeconomic and health measures (e.g., insurance, well child visits) and pre-2016 mean coverage. Using the synthetic control method, with 2016 as the treatment year and a 2-year post-policy period, we constructed a “control” California, from a weighted sum of states. We used permutation testing to repeat the process for each of the other states and their unique synthetic control, to determine whether there was a meaningful difference in California (i.e., a change in California’s coverage relative to its control in the top 5th percentile of states). We tested the model’s sensitivity to various analytical assumptions. Results Of 43 control states, synthetic California was predominantly comprised of Idaho, Mississippi, and Arkansas, and had a good pre-policy match on outcomes. MMR coverage in California increased by 3.2% relative to synthetic California in the post period (Top 1 of 44 states, Figure 1). Medical exemptions increased by 0.4%, while non-medical exemptions decreased by 2.2% in the post-period (Top 1 of 43 states). The model was robust to changes in covariates and control states. Conclusion The policy resulted in a meaningful increase in MMR coverage and reduction in non-medical exemptions. We measured a modest increase in medical exemptions, but this was offset by the larger reduction in non-medical exemptions. State policies removing non-medical exemptions can be effective in increasing vaccination coverage. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals Analisis Keterkontrolan Model Penyebaran Virus Polio Tipe Vaccine-Derived Polio Virus (VDPV) dan Wild Polio Virus (WPV)

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (01) ◽  
pp. 35-40
Author(s):  
Sari Cahyaningtias ◽  
Rani Kurnia Putri
Keyword(s):  
Oral Vaccine ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Physical Contact ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Vulnerable Children ◽  
Polio Virus ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
New Type ◽  
Eradicate Polio ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Abstract, Administering vaccines is important as an effort to eradicate polio which is spread by polio virus through physical contact from person to person and exacerbated by an unhealthy sanitation environment. Giving this vaccine does not mean without side effects, administering an oral vaccine (OPV) without proper calculation causes the person given the vaccine to be contract the virus, the truth is, vaccine contains a weakened virus. Therefore, control in administering vaccines is important to do.The polio virus is transmitted to people with weak immune systems and poor sanitation environment, called WPV (Wild Polio Virus). Another impact that is feared from giving OPV is the occurrence of Vaccine Derrived Polio Virus (VDPV), a condition in which the polio virus mutates to become malignant and gives rise to a new type of polio virus. In this study, the mathematical model of the polio virus distribution was formed into a system of non-linear dynamic equations which then carried out a control analysis of the dynamic system of distribution polio by establishing the vaccination rate as the control of the system. The results of the control analysis show that the system can be controlled with the control variables given, namely (1) the level of vaccination of vulnerable children; (2) vaccination rates of vulnerable children without vaccines. Keywords: equilibrium point, control, vaccination level, polio type VDPV and WPV   Abstrak, Pemberian vaksin penting dilakukan sebagai upaya pemberantasan penyakit polio yang disebarkan oleh virus polio melalui kontak fisik  dari orang ke orang dan diperparah dengan lingkungan sanitasi yang tidak sehat. Pemberian vaksin ini bukan berarti tanpa efek samping, pemberian dosis vaksin oral (OPV) tanpa perhitungan yang tepat menyebabkan orang yang diberi vaksin dapat terjangkit virus tersebut, karena sejatinya, vaksin berisikan virus yang telah dilemahkan. Oleh sebab itu, kontrol dalam pemberian vaksin, penting untuk dilakukan. Virus polio yang menular ke orang  dengan daya tahan tubuh lemah dan lingkungan sanitasi yang buruk, disebut dengan WPV (Wild Polio Virus). Dampak lain yang dikhawatirkan dari pemberian OPV adalah terjadinya Vaccine Derrived Polio Virus (VDPV) yaitu suatu keadaan dimana virus polio bermutasi menjadi ganas dan menimbulkan virus polio tipe baru. Pada penelitian ini, model matematika dari persebaran virus polio ini dibentuk kedalam system persamaan dinamik tak linier yang kemudian dilakukan analisis keterkontrolan dari sistem dinamik persebaran polio tersebut dengan menetapkan tingkat vaksinasi sebagai control dari sistem. Hasil analisis keterkontrolan menunjukkan bahwa system dapat dikontrol dengan variabel kendali yang diberikan, yaitu (1) tingkat vaksinasi anak-anak rentan; (2) tingkat vaksinasi anak-anak rentan tanpa vaksin.  Keywords:  titik kesetimbangan, keterkontrolan, tingkat vaksinasi, polio tipe VDPV dan WPV

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