Abstract
The GNSS-A technique is an observation method that can detect seafloor crustal deformations with centimeter level accuracy. The GNSS-A seafloor geodetic observation array operated by the Japan Coast Guard, called SGO-A, has been constructed near the Japan Islands along the Nankai Trough and the Japan Trench. This observation array has detected several earthquakes’ displacements and episodic slow crustal deformation. To compare the detection results of SGO-A with other observation networks and expand the SGO-A distribution, it is necessary to correctly understand its detection capability. In this paper, the capabilities of current GNSS-A (frequency: f = 4–6 times/year, position accuracy: σ (standard deviation) = 1.5 cm) to detect a crustal deformation rate only, an event only, and crustal deformation rate and event together were arranged by numerical simulations. Results suggested the following features: when it is known that there is no event, the 95% confidence level (CL) for the estimation of crustal deformation rate with 4-year observation is about 0.5–0.8 cm/year; when the deformation rate is known, a signal of about 3.0 cm can be detected by observations of about 4 times before and after the event. When the deformation rate and the event are detected together, to keep the false positive low (about 0.05), the false negative becomes high (about 0.2–0.7 for detecting a signal of 4.5–6.0 cm). The determined rate and event variations are approximately 1.8 cm/year (95%CL) and 1.5 cm (standard deviation), respectively. We also examined the detection capability for higher frequency and accuracy, to examine how the detection capability improves by technological advancements in the future. Additionally, we calculated the spatial range of event detectability using the determined values of detection sensitivity. Each seafloor site can detect a slip event larger than 0.1 m scale within about 50 km radius. A subseafloor slip event smaller than about 1 m at the distance of 100 km or more from the land can often be detected only on the seafloor observation array.
Heterogeneous interplate coupling along the Nankai Trough, Japan, detected by GPS-acoustic seafloor geodetic observation
