Spatiotemporal slip distributions associated with the 2018–2019 Bungo Channel long-term slow slip event inverted from GNSS data

Long-term slow slip events (L-SSEs) have repeatedly occurred beneath the Bungo Channel in southwestern Japan with durations of several months to a couple of years, with a recurrence interval of approximately 6 years. We estimated the spatiotemporal slip distributions of the 2018–2019 Bungo Channel L-SSE by inverting processed GNSS time series data. This event was divided into two subevents, with the first on the southwest side of the Bungo Channel from 2018.3 to 2018.7 and the second beneath the Bungo Channel from 2018.8 to 2019.4. Tectonic tremors became active on the downdip side of the L-SSE occurrence region when large slow slips took place beneath the Bungo Channel. Compared with the previous Bungo Channel L-SSEs, this spatiotemporal slip pattern and amount were similar to those of the 2002–2004 L-SSE. However, the slip expanded in the northeast and southwest directions in the latter half of the second subevent. The maximum amount of slip, the maximum slip velocity, the total released seismic moment, and the moment magnitude of the 2018–2019 L-SSE were estimated to be 28 cm, 54 cm/year, $$4.4 \times 10^{19}$$ 4.4 × 10 19 Nm, and 7.0, respectively, all of which were the largest among the 1996–1998, 2002–2004, 2009–2011, and 2018–2019 L-SSEs.

Imaging evolution of Cascadia slow-slip event using high-rate GPS

The slip history of short-term slow slip event (SSE) is typically inferred from daily Global Positioning System (GPS) data, which, however, cannot image the sub-daily processes, leaving the underlying mechanisms of SSEs elusive. To address the temporal resolution issue, we attempted to employ the kinematic subdaily GPS analysis, which has never been applied to SSE studies because its signal-to-noise ratio has been believed too low. By carefully post-processing sub-daily positions to remove non-tectonic position fluctuation, our 30-minute kinematic data clearly exhibits the transient motion of a few mm during one Cascadia SSE. A spatiotemporal slip image by inverting the 30-minute data exhibits a multi-stage evolution; it consists of an isotropic growth of SSE followed by an along-strike migration and termination within the rheologically controlled down-dip width. This transition at the slip growth mode is similar to the rupture growth of regular earthquakes, implying the presence of common mechanical factors behind the two distinct slip phenomena. The comparison with a slip inversion of the daily GPS demonstrates the current performance and limitation of the subdaily data in the SSE detection and imaging.Better understanding of the non-tectonic noise in the kinematic GPS analysis will further improve the temporal resolution of SSE.

Crustal deformation detection capability of the GNSS-A seafloor geodetic observation array (SGO-A), provided by Japan Coast Guard

The GNSS-A technique is an observation method that can detect seafloor crustal deformations with centimeter-level positioning accuracy. The GNSS-A seafloor geodetic observation array operated by the Japan Coast Guard (SGO-A) has been constructed near the Japanese Islands along the Nankai Trough and the Japan Trench. This observation array has detected several earthquakes’ displacements and episodic slow crustal deformation. To compare the detection results of SGO-A with other observation networks and expand the SGO-A coverage area, it is necessary to correctly understand its detection capability. In this paper, numerical simulations and statistical verifications were used to assess the capabilities of the present GNSS-A system using a manned vessel (observation frequency: 4–6 times/year, positioning accuracy: standard deviation = 1.5 cm) to detect (1) secular deformation only, (2) a transient slip event only and (3) secular deformation and a transient event together. We verified these results with appropriate thresholds and found the following features: When it is known that there is no transient event, the 95% confidence level (CL) for the estimation of secular crustal deformation rate with 4-year observation is about 0.5–0.8 cm/year; when the deformation rate is known, a signal of about 3.0 cm can be detected by observations of about 4 times before and after the transient event. When the deformation rate and the transient event are detected together, to keep the false positive low (about 0.05), the false negative becomes high (about 0.7–0.2 for detecting a signal of 4.5–6.0 cm). The determined rate and event variations are approximately 1.8 cm/year (95%CL) and 1.5 cm (standard deviation), respectively. We also examined the detection capability for higher observation frequency and positioning accuracy, to examine how the detection capability improves by technological advancements in the future. Additionally, we calculated the spatial range of event detectability using the determined values of detection sensitivity. Obtained results show that each seafloor site can detect a slip event of < 1.0 m scale within about 30 km radius, and approximately one-third of the subseafloor slip event over 100 km from land along the Nankai Trough can only be detected by SGO-A.

Crustal Deformation Detection Capability Associated With a Fault Slip on the Interplate Boundary in the Gnss-a Seafloor Geodetic Observation Array (SGO-A), Provided By Japan Coast Guard

The GNSS-A technique is an observation method that can detect seafloor crustal deformations with centimeter level accuracy. The GNSS-A seafloor geodetic observation array operated by the Japan Coast Guard, called SGO-A, has been constructed near the Japan Islands along the Nankai Trough and the Japan Trench. This observation array has detected several earthquakes’ displacements and episodic slow crustal deformation. To compare the detection results of SGO-A with other observation networks and expand the SGO-A distribution, it is necessary to correctly understand its detection capability. In this paper, the capabilities of current GNSS-A (frequency: f = 4–6 times/year, position accuracy: σ (standard deviation) = 1.5 cm) to detect a crustal deformation rate only, an event only, and crustal deformation rate and event together were arranged by numerical simulations. Results suggested the following features: when it is known that there is no event, the 95% confidence level (CL) for the estimation of crustal deformation rate with 4-year observation is about 0.5–0.8 cm/year; when the deformation rate is known, a signal of about 3.0 cm can be detected by observations of about 4 times before and after the event. When the deformation rate and the event are detected together, to keep the false positive low (about 0.05), the false negative becomes high (about 0.2–0.7 for detecting a signal of 4.5–6.0 cm). The determined rate and event variations are approximately 1.8 cm/year (95%CL) and 1.5 cm (standard deviation), respectively. We also examined the detection capability for higher frequency and accuracy, to examine how the detection capability improves by technological advancements in the future. Additionally, we calculated the spatial range of event detectability using the determined values of detection sensitivity. Each seafloor site can detect a slip event larger than 0.1 m scale within about 50 km radius. A subseafloor slip event smaller than about 1 m at the distance of 100 km or more from the land can often be detected only on the seafloor observation array.

Imaging of a serpentinite complex in the Kamuikotan Zone, northern Japan, from magnetotelluric soundings

We conducted magnetotelluric measurements to investigate a large serpentinite complex in the northern Kamuikotan Zone that intruded a Cretaceous–Paleocene forearc sedimentary sequence. The resistivity model we derived by three-dimensional inversion clearly shows a low-resistivity zone beneath the outcrop of the serpentinite complex. We interpret the low-resistivity zone to represent aqueous pore fluid within a serpentinite mélange derived from the subducting Pacific plate or mantle wedge. Previous geological studies in the area have shown that the serpentinite mélange had uplifted during the early Pleistocene. They indicate that the ultramafic rocks and aqueous fluids have continued to rise in the area. The uplifting serpentinite body might have formed a zone enriched in pore fluid that promoted the occurrence of a previously identified intra-plate slow slip event. These results demonstrate the important role of fluid transport during tectonic processes related to uplift in subduction zones.

Spatiotemporal Slip Distributions Associated with the 2018-2019 Bungo Channel Long-Term Slow Slip Event Inverted from GNSS Data

Long-term slow slip events (L-SSEs) have occurred beneath the Bungo Channel with durations of several months to a couple of years repeatedly with a recurrence interval of approximately six years. We estimated the spatiotemporal slip distributions of the 2018–2019 Bungo Channel L-SSE inverted from processed GNSS time series data. This event was divided into two subevents, with the first on the southwest side of the Bungo Channel from 2018.3 to 2018.7 and the second beneath the Bungo Channel from 2018.8 to 2019.4. Tectonic tremors became active on the downdip side of the L-SSE occurrence region when large slow slips took place beneath the Bungo Channel. Compared with the previous Bungo Channel L-SSEs, this spatiotemporal slip pattern and amount were similar to those of the 2003 L-SSE. However, the slip expanded in the northeast-southwest direction in the latter half of the second subevent. We also found that the total duration of the two subevents was 1.0 year, which was the shortest among the four recent L-SSEs beneath the Bungo Channel identified using GNSS time series data. The maximum amount of slip, the maximum slip velocity, the total released seismic moment, and the moment magnitude of the 2018–2019 L-SSE were estimated to be 27 cm, 53 cm/year, 4.1×1019 Nm, and 7.0, respectively, all of which were the largest among the four L-SSEs.

Imaging of An Uplifted Serpentinite Complex In The Kamuikotan Zone, Northern Japan, From Magnetotelluric Soundings

We conducted magnetotelluric measurements to investigate a large serpentinite complex in the northern Kamuikotan zone that intruded a Cretaceous–Paleocene forearc sedimentary sequence. The resistivity model we derived by three-dimensional inversion clearly shows a low-resistivity zone beneath the outcrop of the serpentinite complex. We interpret the low-resistivity zone to represent aqueous pore fluid within a serpentinite mélange derived from the subducting Pacific plate or mantle wedge. Previous geological studies in the area have shown that the serpentinite mélange had uplifted during the early Pleistocene. They indicate that the ultramafic rocks and aqueous fluids have continued to rise in the area. The uplifting serpentinite body might have formed a zone enriched in pore fluid that promoted the occurrence of a previously identified intra-plate slow slip event. These results demonstrate the important role of fluid transport during tectonic processes related to uplift in subduction zones.

Slow Slip Events Following the 2002 Mw 7.1 Hualien Offshore Earthquake Afterslip

The recurrence intervals of slow slip events may increase gradually after a large earthquake during the afterslip. Stress perturbations during coseismic and postseismic periods may result in such an increase of intervals. However, the increasing recurrence intervals of slow slip events are rarely observed during an afterslip. The evolution process along with the afterslip remains unclear. We report an observation of slow slip events following the 2002 Mw 7.1 Hualien offshore earthquake afterslip in the southernmost Ryukyu subduction zone. Slow slip events in 2005, 2009, and 2015 are adjacent to the Mw 7.1 earthquake hypocenter. An increasing slow-slip interval of 3.1, 4.2, and 6.2 years has been observed after the earthquake. We calculated coseismic and postseismic slips from the Mw 7.1 earthquake and then estimated the Coulomb stress changes in the slow slip region. The Mw 7.1 earthquake has contributed positive Coulomb stresses to both the 2005 slow-slip region and 2009/2015 repeating slow-slip region. The coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress change on the 2005 slow-slip region is approximately 0.05 MPa and 0.035 MPa, respectively. However, both Coulomb stress changes on the 2009/2015 repeating slow-slip region are not over 0.03 MPa. The ongoing afterslip following the Mw 7.1 earthquake last for at least five years, evolving with a decaying stress rate with time. The long-term stress perturbations may be able to trigger the 2005 slow slip event during the afterslip. The 2009 slow slip event seems to be influenced by the afterslip as well. Postseismic stress evolution and frictional and stressed conditions of the slow-slip region can be a reason to affect the evolution process of slow slip events intervals.