Bayesian Spatial Modeling of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels

2007 ◽  
Vol 102 (479) ◽  
pp. 824-840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Cooley ◽  
Douglas Nychka ◽  
Philippe Naveau
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby J Gründemann ◽  
Enrico Zorzetto ◽  
Hylke E Beck ◽  
Marc Schleiss ◽  
Nick Van de Giesen ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandra Rupa Rajulapati ◽  
Simon Michael Papalexiou ◽  
Martyn P Clark ◽  
Saman Razavi ◽  
Guoqiang Tang ◽  
...  

<p>Assessing extreme precipitation events is of high importance to hydrological risk assessment, decision making, and adaptation strategies. Global gridded precipitation products, constructed by combining various data sources such as precipitation gauge observations, atmospheric reanalyses and satellite estimates, can be used to estimate extreme precipitation events. Although these global precipitation products are widely used, there has been limited work to examine how well these products represent the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation. In this work, the five most widely used global precipitation datasets (MSWEP, CFSR, CPC, PERSIANN-CDR and WFDEI) are compared to each other and to GHCN-daily surface observations. The spatial variability of extreme precipitation events and the discrepancy amongst datasets in predicting precipitation return levels (such as 100- and 1000-year) were evaluated for the time period 1979-2017.  The behaviour of extremes, that is the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation, was quantified using indices of the heaviness of the upper tail of the probability distribution. Two parameterizations of the upper tail, the power and stretched-exponential, were used to reveal the probabilistic behaviour of extremes. The analysis shows strong spatial variability in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation extremes as estimated from the upper tails of the probability distributions. This spatial variability is similar to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The predicted 100- and 1000-year return levels differ substantially amongst the gridded products, and the level of discrepancy varies regionally, with large differences in Africa and South America and small differences in North America and Europe. The results from this work reveal the shortcomings of global precipitation products in representing extremes. The work shows that there is no single global product that performs best for all regions and climates.</p>


2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 645-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vahid Rahimpour Golroudbary ◽  
Yijian Zeng ◽  
Chris M. Mannaerts ◽  
Zhongbo Su

AbstractKnowledge of the response of extreme precipitation to urbanization is essential to ensure societal preparedness for the extreme events caused by climate change. To quantify this response, this study scales extreme precipitation according to temperature using the statistical quantile regression and binning methods for 231 rain gauges during the period of 1985–2014. The positive 3%–7% scaling rates were found at most stations. The nonstationary return levels of extreme precipitation are investigated using monthly blocks of the maximum daily precipitation, considering the dependency of precipitation on the dewpoint, atmospheric air temperatures, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Consideration of Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover types upwind of the stations in different directions classifies stations as urban and nonurban. The return levels for the maximum daily precipitation are greater over urban stations than those over nonurban stations especially after the spring months. This discrepancy was found by 5%–7% larger values in August for all of the classified station types. Analysis of the intensity–duration–frequency curves for urban and nonurban precipitation in August reveals that the assumption of stationarity leads to the underestimation of precipitation extremes due to the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to the nonstationary condition. The study concludes that nonstationary models should be used to estimate the return levels of extreme precipitation by considering the probable covariates such as the dewpoint and atmospheric air temperatures. In addition to the external forces, such as large-scale weather modes, circulation types, and temperature changes that drive extreme precipitation, urbanization could impact extreme precipitation in the Netherlands, particularly for short-duration events.


2003 ◽  
Vol 56 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 32-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan C. Thomas ◽  
Daniel O. Stram ◽  
David Conti ◽  
John Molitor ◽  
Paul Marjoram

2008 ◽  
Vol 137 (2) ◽  
pp. 438-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond A. Webster ◽  
Kenneth H. Pollock ◽  
Sujit K. Ghosh ◽  
David G. Hankin

Ecography ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 1093-1096
Author(s):  
Norbert Solymosi ◽  
Sara E. Wagner ◽  
Ákos Maróti-Agóts ◽  
Alberto Allepuz

2016 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 512-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raul Vilela ◽  
Ursula Pena ◽  
Ruth Esteban ◽  
Robin Koemans

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