Reliability of global gridded precipitation products in assessing extremes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandra Rupa Rajulapati ◽  
Simon Michael Papalexiou ◽  
Martyn P Clark ◽  
Saman Razavi ◽  
Guoqiang Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Precipitation Gauge ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Surface Observations ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Assessing extreme precipitation events is of high importance to hydrological risk assessment, decision making, and adaptation strategies. Global gridded precipitation products, constructed by combining various data sources such as precipitation gauge observations, atmospheric reanalyses and satellite estimates, can be used to estimate extreme precipitation events. Although these global precipitation products are widely used, there has been limited work to examine how well these products represent the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation. In this work, the five most widely used global precipitation datasets (MSWEP, CFSR, CPC, PERSIANN-CDR and WFDEI) are compared to each other and to GHCN-daily surface observations. The spatial variability of extreme precipitation events and the discrepancy amongst datasets in predicting precipitation return levels (such as 100- and 1000-year) were evaluated for the time period 1979-2017.  The behaviour of extremes, that is the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation, was quantified using indices of the heaviness of the upper tail of the probability distribution. Two parameterizations of the upper tail, the power and stretched-exponential, were used to reveal the probabilistic behaviour of extremes. The analysis shows strong spatial variability in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation extremes as estimated from the upper tails of the probability distributions. This spatial variability is similar to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The predicted 100- and 1000-year return levels differ substantially amongst the gridded products, and the level of discrepancy varies regionally, with large differences in Africa and South America and small differences in North America and Europe. The results from this work reveal the shortcomings of global precipitation products in representing extremes. The work shows that there is no single global product that performs best for all regions and climates.</p>

Assessment of Extremes in Global Precipitation Products: How Reliable Are They?

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 2855-2873
Author(s):  
Chandra Rupa Rajulapati ◽  
Simon Michael Papalexiou ◽  
Martyn P. Clark ◽  
Saman Razavi ◽  
Guoqiang Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Time Period ◽  
High Precipitation Events ◽  
High Precipitation ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractGlobal gridded precipitation products have proven essential for many applications ranging from hydrological modeling and climate model validation to natural hazard risk assessment. They provide a global picture of how precipitation varies across time and space, specifically in regions where ground-based observations are scarce. While the application of global precipitation products has become widespread, there is limited knowledge on how well these products represent the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation—the key features in triggering flood hazards. Here, five global precipitation datasets (MSWEP, CFSR, CPC, PERSIANN-CDR, and WFDEI) are compared to each other and to surface observations. The spatial variability of relatively high precipitation events (tail heaviness) and the resulting discrepancy among datasets in the predicted precipitation return levels were evaluated for the time period 1979–2017. The analysis shows that 1) these products do not provide a consistent representation of the behavior of extremes as quantified by the tail heaviness, 2) there is strong spatial variability in the tail index, 3) the spatial patterns of the tail heaviness generally match the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, and 4) the predicted return levels for 100 and 1000 years differ significantly among the gridded products. More generally, our findings reveal shortcomings of global precipitation products in representing extremes and highlight that there is no single global product that performs best for all regions and climates.

scholarly journals How Well Can IMERG Products Capture Typhoon Extreme Precipitation Events over Southern China?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaoying Huang ◽  
Junjun Hu ◽  
Sheng Chen ◽  
Asi Zhang ◽  
Zhenqing Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Bias Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Measurement ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Events

This study assesses the performance of the latest version 05B (V5B) Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) (IMERG) Early and Final Runs over southern China during six extremely heavy precipitation events brought by six powerful typhoons from 2016 to 2017. Observations from a dense network composed of 2449 rain gauges are used as reference to quantify the performance in terms of spatiotemporal variability, probability distribution of precipitation rates, contingency scores, and bias analysis. The results show that: (1) both IMERG with gauge calibration (IMERG_Cal) and without gauge correction (IMERG_Uncal) generally capture the spatial patterns of storm-accumulated precipitation with moderate to high correlation coefficients (CCs) of 0.57–0.87, and relative bias (RB) varying from −17.21% to 30.58%; (2) IMERG_Uncal and IMERG_Cal capture well the area-average hourly series of precipitation over rainfall centers with high CCs ranging from 0.78 to 0.94; (3) IMERG_Cal tends to underestimate precipitation especially the rainfall over the rainfall centers when compared to IMERG_Uncal. The IMERG Final Run shows promising potentials in typhoon-related extreme precipitation storm applications. This study is expected to give useful feedbacks about the latest V5B Final Run IMERG product to both algorithm developers and the scientific end users, providing a better understanding of how well the V5B IMERG products capture the typhoon extreme precipitation events over southern China.

Globally estimated precipitation extremes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby Gründemann ◽  
Ruud van der Ent ◽  
Hylke Beck ◽  
Marc Schleiss ◽  
Enrico Zorzetto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Extreme Value Distributions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
High Return ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Understanding the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events is a core component of translating climate observations to planning and engineering design. This research aims to capture extreme precipitation return levels at the global scale. A benchmark of the current climate is created using the global Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP-V2, coverage 1979-2017 at 0.1 arc degree resolution) data, by using both classical and novel extreme value distributions. Traditional extreme value distributions, such as the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution use annual maxima to estimate precipitation extremes, whereas the novel Metastatistical Extreme Value (MEV) distribution also includes the ordinary precipitation events. Due to this inclusion the MEV is less sensitive to local extremes and thus provides a more reliable and smoothened spatial pattern. The global scale application of methods allows analysis of the complete spatial patterns of the extremes. The generated database of precipitation extremes for high return periods is particularly relevant in otherwise data-sparse regions to provide a benchmark for local engineers and planners.</p>

scholarly journals Temporal–Spatial Monitoring of an Extreme Precipitation Event: Determining Simultaneously the Time Period It Lasts and the Geographic Region It Affects

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6123-6132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Er Lu ◽  
Wei Zhao ◽  
Xukai Zou ◽  
Dianxiu Ye ◽  
Chunyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Geographic Region ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Starting Time ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Persistent Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Events

A method is developed in this study to monitor and detect extreme precipitation events. For a rainfall event to be severe, it should last for a long period and affect a wide region while maintaining a strong intensity. However, if the duration is inappropriately taken as too long and the region is inappropriately taken as too wide, then the averaged intensity might be too weak. There should be a balance among the three quantities. Based upon understanding of the issue, the authors proposed a simple mathematical model, which contains two reasonable constraints. The relation of the “extreme” intensity with both duration and region (EIDR) is derived. With the prescribed baseline extreme intensities, the authors calculate the relative intensities with the data. Through comparison among different time periods and spatial sizes, one can identify the event that is most extreme, with its starting time, duration, and geographic region being determined. Procedures for monitoring the extreme event are provided. As an example, the extreme event contained in the 1991 persistent heavy rainfall over east China is detected.

scholarly journals Trends and seasonality of extreme precipitation characteristics related to mid-latitude cyclones in Europe

2009 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 39-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Karagiannidis ◽  
T. Karacostas ◽  
P. Maheras ◽  
T. Makrogiannis
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Significant Trend ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Strict Criterion ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Precipitation Characteristics ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. An attempt is made to study the extreme precipitation characteristics, which are related to the mid-latitude cyclonic systems. Daily pluviometric data, from several stations across the continental Europe and the British Islands, are used. The covered time-period is from 1958 to 2000. Only extreme precipitation events related to mid-latitude cyclonic systems are studied, since thermal thunderstorm episodes are being excluded. To accomplish that, summer months are excluded and a strict criterion for identifying the exact episodes is set, which also defines the episode itself and the extremity of it. A decreasing trend in the cases of extreme precipitation of the European continent was found. It starts in the mid 60's and continues until the mid 70's. After that and until the end of the examined period, no significant trend was found. Seasonality of extreme precipitation cases and episodes is also studied. October and November are the two months that present the higher frequencies of such cases and episodes. In general, autumn months indicate the higher percentages of extreme precipitation, with winter and spring months to follow.

scholarly journals Assessment of GPM-Era Satellite Products’ (IMERG and GSMaP) Ability to Detect Precipitation Extremes over Mountainous Country Nepal

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 254
Author(s):  
Bikash Nepal ◽  
Dibas Shrestha ◽  
Shankar Sharma ◽  
Mandira Singh Shrestha ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Measurement ◽  
Global Precipitation Measurement ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Events

The reliability of satellite precipitation products is important in climatic and hydro-meteorological studies, which is especially true in mountainous regions because of the lack of observations in these areas. Two recent satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)-era—Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG-V06) and gauge calibrated Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP-V07) are evaluated for their spatiotemporal accuracy and ability to capture extreme precipitation events using 279 gauge stations from southern slope of central Himalaya, Nepal, between 2014 and 2019. The overall result suggests that both SREs can capture the spatiotemporal precipitation variability, although they both underestimated the observed precipitation amount. Between the two, the IMERG product shows a more consistent performance with a higher correlation coefficient (0.52) and smaller bias (−2.49 mm/day) than the GSMaP product. It is worth mentioning that the monthly gauge-calibrated IMERG product yields better detection capability (higher probability of detection (POD) values) of daily precipitation events than the daily gauge calibrated GSMaP product; however, they both show similar performance in terms of false alarm ratio (FAR) and critical success index (CSI). Assessment based on extreme precipitation indices revealed that the IMERG product outperforms GSMaP in capturing daily precipitation extremes (RX1Day and RX5Day). In contrast, the GSMaP product tends to be more consistent in capturing the duration and threshold-based precipitation extremes (consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), and number of extreme precipitation days (R25mm)). Therefore, it is suggested that the IMERG product can be a good alternative for monitoring daily extremes; meanwhile, GSMaP could be a better option for duration-based extremes in the mountainous region.

scholarly journals Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3373
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zaman ◽  
Ijaz Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
Muhammad Saifullah ◽  
Muhammad Naveed Anjum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Time Distribution ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Event Duration ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Precipitation Events

This study presented the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan (NHPK). Daily precipitation observations of 30 in situ meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014 were used to estimate the 11 extreme precipitation indices. Additionally, trends in time distribution patterns (TDPs) and return periods were also investigated for event based extreme precipitations (EEP). Results found that the precipitation events with an amount of 160–320 mm and with a concentration ratio of 0.8–1.0 and a duration of 4–7 consecutive days were dominant. The frequency of heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy precipitation days decreased, whereas the frequency of wet, very wet and extremely wet days increased. Most of the indices, generally, showed an increasing trend from the northeast to middle parts. The extreme precipitation events of the 20 and 50-year return period were more common in the western and central areas of NHPK. Moreover, the 20 and 50-year return levels depicted higher values (up to 420 mm) for an event duration with all daily precipitation extremes dispersed in the first half (TDP1) in the Chitral, Panjkora and Jhelum Rivers basins, whilst the maximum values (up to 700 mm) for an event duration with all daily precipitation extremes dispersed in the second half (TDP2) were observed in the eastern part of the NHPK for 20-year and eastern and south-west for 50-year, respectively.

scholarly journals Capability of IMERG V6 Early, Late, and Final Precipitation Products for Monitoring Extreme Precipitation Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
Chenguang Zhou ◽  
Wei Gao ◽  
Jiarui Hu ◽  
Liangmin Du ◽  
Lin Du
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Complex Topography ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Measurement ◽  
Variation Patterns ◽  
Global Precipitation Measurement ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Early Late ◽  
Precipitation Events

The monitoring of extreme precipitation events is an important task in environmental research, but the ability of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) precipitation products to monitor extreme precipitation events remains poorly understood. In this study, three precipitation products for IMERG version 6, early-, late-, and final-run products (IMERG-E, IMERG-L, and IMERG-F, respectively), were used to capture extreme precipitation, and their applicability to monitor extreme precipitation events over Hubei province in China was evaluated. We found that the accuracy of the three IMERG precipitation products is inconsistent in areas of complex and less complex topography. Compared with gauge-based precipitation data, the results reveal the following: (1) All products can accurately capture the spatiotemporal variation patterns in precipitation during extreme precipitation events. (2) The ability of IMERG-F was good in areas of complex topography, followed by IMERG-E and IMERG-L. In areas of less complex topography, IMERG-E and IMERG-L produced outcomes that were consistent with those of IMERG-F. (3) The three IMERG precipitation products can capture the actual hourly precipitation tendencies of extreme precipitation events. (4) In areas of complex topography, the rainfall intensity estimation ability of IMERG-F is better than those of IMERG-E and IMERG-L.

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