Prediction of land use changes with Bayesian spatial modeling from the perspective of urban climate

Urban Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 100569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takashi Kyakuno
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Bayesian Spatial Modeling

A Spatial Modeling Framework to Evaluate Domestic Biofuel-Induced Potential Land Use Changes and Emissions

2014 ◽  
pp. 140123152522000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Elliott ◽  
Bhavna Sharma ◽  
Neil Best ◽  
Michael Glotter ◽  
Jennifer B. Dunn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Potential Land

scholarly journals Investigating the effect of land-use change on the heat load within two Austrian cities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Goler ◽  
Maja Žuvela-Aloise ◽  
Sandro Oswald ◽  
Brigitta Holllósi ◽  
Claudia Hahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Heat Load ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Use Categories

<p>As the majority of the population live in cities, it is important to understand the urban climate and how it can change in the future. Accordingly, the ACRP-funded project LUCRETIA investigates how land use and land cover determine local climate characteristics within cities in Austria. </p><p>Historical land use data has been obtained for Graz and Vienna for a number of years and used as input into the microscale urban climate model MUKLIMO_3 to simulate both cities in conditions representing a typical summer day. In conjunction with the cuboid method, climate indices such as the average number of summer and hot days per year have been calculated to establish how the heat load changes from one year to another. Differences in the heat load have been related to changes in the land use focusing on (i) the change that occurs in situ and (ii) the change that occurs in the neighbourhood. <br> <br>It is shown that land use categories can be ordered according to their heat load, with categories containing larger amounts of greenery generally having lower heat loads. With the land use categories sorted in such a way, it enables a relatively quick assessment to be made of the effect of replacing one land use category with another, without having to employ expensive modelling tools. Furthermore, it is shown that land-use changes not only affect the heat load of the changed area in situ, but also the neighbourhood around where the change was made. This demonstrates that land-use changes may have a broader spatial impact than initially anticipated. The results from this study can serve as guidance for city planners regarding future land use and land cover changes.</p>

scholarly journals Land Use Changes in a Peri-Urban Area and Consequences on the Urban Heat Island

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Nardino ◽  
Laruccia
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Energy Requirement ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Urban Heat

The effect of urbanization on microclimatic conditions is known as “urban heat islands”. In comparison with surrounding rural areas, urban climate is characterized by higher mean temperature, especially during heat waves and during nights. This results in a higher energy requirement for air conditioning in buildings and in a greater bioclimatic discomfort for urban populations. The reasons of this phenomena are ascribable principally to the increase of solar radiation storage and to the decrease of dissipation of water by evapotranspiration in urban environment respect to rural ones. The aim of this paper is to give a quantification of the air temperature increase due to an urbanization process. This quantification is conducted by comparing surface energy balance (incoming and outcoming radiation and turbulent fluxes) in urbanized area versus rural areas. This quantitative approach will be validated using a fluidodynamic model (Envi-Met) in a case study area representative of one among the various regional models of urban area growth. In particular, the model of expansion of small towns around big cities (2003–2008 land use changes) of a plain near-urban area in the Po Valley region (Italy) was used.

scholarly journals Spatial Modeling of Relationship Between Soil Erosion Factors and Land-use Changes at Sub-Watershed Scale for the Talar Watershed, Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahimeh Mircholli ◽  
Maziar Mohammadi Khanghah ◽  
Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Affective Factors

Abstract Soil erosion is one of the most common types of land degradation. To provide useful information for proper management, quantitative soil erosion evaluation and identification of effective factors are needed. However, rare studies have been reported on spatial modeling of soil erosion in connection with affective factors to prioritize the locality and the type of erosion control measures Hence, the aim of this study was to (1) assess erosion-prone areas in the Talar Watershed, Iran, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, and (2) investigate the relationship between soil erosion variability and land-use changes. Toward that, the ordinary least squares (OLS), geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used to analyze spatial relationships between soil erosion, and land-use, and the RUSLE factors. The results of the OLS and GWR models indicated these relationships are spatially non-stationary and GWR models had a good predictive performance rather than OLS with lower Akaike's Information Criterion (from 254.31 to 276.81 in OLS, and from 247.87 to 269.42 in GWR) and higher adjusted R2 values (from 0.12 to 0.54 in OLS, and from 0.36 to 0.66 in GWR). Among the aforementioned variables, LS factor, P factor, forest, and irrigated land were the most effective variables in GWR models. The results of PCA showed PC1 and PC2 explained 66.2 % of the variation in soil erosion concerning land-use and the RUSLE factors. These results provided appropriate references for managers and experts in the proper planning of the study watershed.

Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matheus Supriyanto Rumetna ◽  
Eko Sediyono ◽  
Kristoko Dwi Hartomo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Complete Spatial Randomness ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Global Moran’S I ◽  
Spatial Randomness

Abstract. Bantul Regency is a part of Yogyakarta Special Province Province which experienced land use changes. This research aims to assess the changes of shape and level of land use, to analyze the pattern of land use changes, and to find the appropriateness of RTRW land use in Bantul District in 2011-2015. Analytical methods are employed including Geoprocessing techniques and analysis of patterns of distribution of land use changes with Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I). The results of this study of land use in 2011, there are thirty one classifications, while in 2015 there are thirty four classifications. The pattern of distribution of land use change shows that land use change in 2011-2015 has a Complete Spatial Randomness pattern. Land use suitability with the direction of area function at RTRW is 24030,406 Ha (46,995406%) and incompatibility of 27103,115 Ha or equal to 53,004593% of the total area of Bantul Regency.Keywords: Geographical Information System, Land Use, Geoprocessing, Global Moran's I, Bantul Regency. Abstrak. Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I. Kabupaten Bantul merupakan bagian dari Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang mengalami perubahan tata guna lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji perubahan bentuk dan luas penggunaan lahan, menganalisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan, serta kesesuaian tata guna lahan terhadap RTRW yang terjadi di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2011-2015. Metode analisis yang digunakan antara lain teknik Geoprocessing serta analisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan dengan Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah penggunaan tanah pada tahun 2011, terdapat tiga puluh satu klasifikasi, sedangkan pada tahun 2015 terdapat tiga puluh empat klasifikasi. Pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tata guna lahan tahun 2011-2015 memiliki pola Complete Spatial Randomness. Kesesuaian tata guna lahan dengan arahan fungsi kawasan pada RTRW adalah seluas 24030,406 Ha atau mencapai 46,995406 % dan ketidaksesuaian seluas 27103,115 Ha atau sebesar 53,004593 % dari total luas wilayah Kabupaten Bantul. Kata Kunci: Sistem Informasi Georafis, tata guna lahan, Geoprocessing, Global Moran’s I, Kabupaten Bantul.

Key directions and methodological features of modern studies of land use changes

2019 ◽  
pp. 62-68
Author(s):  
Pavlo Kazmir ◽  
Lyubomyr Kazmir
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Scientific Discipline ◽  
Shared Responsibility ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Land Change Science ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Land Relations ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
Planning Methodology

Interest in land-use changes (LUC) research has been growing rapidly in recent years. This topic has already become the subject of a separate scientific discipline – land use science (or land change science). In order to formulate relevant future policy and develop appropriate land-use management tools, it is crucial to know how the LUC шьзфсе the environment and society condition. For Ukraine, where the structure of land use and the system of land resources management have significantly changed during the years of post-socialist transformation of land relations, the study of the LUC on a modern methodological basis is especially actual. The paper, based on a critical analysis of publications in leading international journals over the last thirty years, identifies key directions of LUC studies and analyzes their methodological features. There is a significant increase of the number of works based on the results of meta-studies and the use of a wide range of methods for modeling the LUC processes, their causes and possible consequences. The great "synergistic potential" of integration of the selected directions is noted, which makes it possible to accelerate the development of the general theory of land use and increase its use efficiency in substantiation of management decisions in the sphere of land use and modernization of the mechanisms of state land, spatial and ecological policies with consideration of existing and potential globalizing challenges. In this context, the key role of the land use integrated planning methodology at regional and local levels is emphasized. This methodology would require close cooperation between government, business and the public in developing a common vision for the implementation of specific land use plans and projects based on the principles of subsidiarity, participativity and shared responsibility.

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