scholarly journals Response of Extreme Precipitation to Urbanization over the Netherlands

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 645-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vahid Rahimpour Golroudbary ◽  
Yijian Zeng ◽  
Chris M. Mannaerts ◽  
Zhongbo Su
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Air ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Types ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractKnowledge of the response of extreme precipitation to urbanization is essential to ensure societal preparedness for the extreme events caused by climate change. To quantify this response, this study scales extreme precipitation according to temperature using the statistical quantile regression and binning methods for 231 rain gauges during the period of 1985–2014. The positive 3%–7% scaling rates were found at most stations. The nonstationary return levels of extreme precipitation are investigated using monthly blocks of the maximum daily precipitation, considering the dependency of precipitation on the dewpoint, atmospheric air temperatures, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Consideration of Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover types upwind of the stations in different directions classifies stations as urban and nonurban. The return levels for the maximum daily precipitation are greater over urban stations than those over nonurban stations especially after the spring months. This discrepancy was found by 5%–7% larger values in August for all of the classified station types. Analysis of the intensity–duration–frequency curves for urban and nonurban precipitation in August reveals that the assumption of stationarity leads to the underestimation of precipitation extremes due to the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to the nonstationary condition. The study concludes that nonstationary models should be used to estimate the return levels of extreme precipitation by considering the probable covariates such as the dewpoint and atmospheric air temperatures. In addition to the external forces, such as large-scale weather modes, circulation types, and temperature changes that drive extreme precipitation, urbanization could impact extreme precipitation in the Netherlands, particularly for short-duration events.

scholarly journals Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 12331-12371 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Casanueva ◽  
C. Rodríguez-Puebla ◽  
M. D. Frías ◽  
N. González-Reviriego
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. A growing interest in extreme precipitation has spread through the scientific community due to the effects of global climate change on the hydrological cycle and their threat on natural systems more than averaged climatic values. Understanding the variability of hydrological indices and their association to atmospheric processes could help to project the frequency and severity of extremes. This paper evaluates the trend of three precipitation extremes: the number of consecutive dry/wet days (CDD/CWD) and the quotient of the precipitation in days where daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of the reference period and the total amount of precipitation (or contribution of very wet days, R95pTOT). The aim of this study is twofold. First, extreme indicators are compared against accumulated precipitation (RR) over Europe in terms of trends using non-parametric approaches. Second, we analyse the geographic opposite trends found over different parts of Europe by considering their relationships with large-scale processes, using different teleconnection patterns. The study is accomplished for the four seasons using the gridded E-OBS dataset developed within the EU ENSEMBLES project. Different patterns of variability were found for CWD and CDD in winter and summer, with north-south and east–west configurations, respectively. We consider physical factors to understand the extremes variability by linking large-scale processes and hydrological extremes. Opposite association with the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter and summer, and the relationships with the Scandinavian, East Atlantic patterns and El Niño/Southern Oscillation events in spring and autumn gave insight into the trend differences. Significant relationships were found between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and very extreme precipitation (R95pTOT) during the whole year. The largest extreme anomalies were analysed by composite maps using atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature. The association of extreme precipitation indices and large-scale variables found in this work could pave the way of new possibilities for the projection of extremes in downscaling techniques.

scholarly journals Geospatial Analysis of Extreme Weather Events in Nigeria (1985–2015) Using Self-Organizing Maps

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeoluwa Akande ◽  
Ana Cristina Costa ◽  
Jorge Mateu ◽  
Roberto Henriques
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Self Organizing

The explosion of data in the information age has provided an opportunity to explore the possibility of characterizing the climate patterns using data mining techniques. Nigeria has a unique tropical climate with two precipitation regimes: low precipitation in the north leading to aridity and desertification and high precipitation in parts of the southwest and southeast leading to large scale flooding. In this research, four indices have been used to characterize the intensity, frequency, and amount of rainfall over Nigeria. A type of Artificial Neural Network called the self-organizing map has been used to reduce the multiplicity of dimensions and produce four unique zones characterizing extreme precipitation conditions in Nigeria. This approach allowed for the assessment of spatial and temporal patterns in extreme precipitation in the last three decades. Precipitation properties in each cluster are discussed. The cluster closest to the Atlantic has high values of precipitation intensity, frequency, and duration, whereas the cluster closest to the Sahara Desert has low values. A significant increasing trend has been observed in the frequency of rainy days at the center of the northern region of Nigeria.

scholarly journals Trends in compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation in Eastern Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Vyshkvarkova ◽  
Olga Sukhonos
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Atmosphere System ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract The spatial distribution of compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation was studied over the territory of Eastern Europe for the period 1950–2018 during winter and spring. Using daily data on air temperature and precipitation, we calculated the frequency and trends of the four indices – cold/dry, cold/wet, warm/dry and warm/wet. Also, we studying the connection between these indices and large-scale processes in the ocean-atmosphere system such as North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Oscillation and Scandinavian Oscillation. The results have shown that positive trends in the region are typical of the combinations with the temperatures above the 75th percentile, i.e., the warm extremes in winter and spring. Negative trends were obtained for the cold extremes. Statistically significant increase in the number of days with warm extremes was observed in the northern parts of the region in winter and spring. The analysis of the impacts of the large-scale processes in oceans-atmosphere system showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation index has a strong positive and statistically significant correlation with the warm indices of compound extremes in the northern part of Eastern Europe in winter, while the Scandinavian Oscillation shows the opposite picture.

scholarly journals Polar Mesoscale Cyclone Climatology for the Nordic Seas Based on ERA-Interim

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2511-2532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clio Michel ◽  
Annick Terpstra ◽  
Thomas Spengler
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Selection Criteria ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Nordic Seas ◽  
The North ◽  
Cold Air Outbreak ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Large Scale Flow ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Polar mesoscale cyclones (PMCs) are automatically detected and tracked over the Nordic seas using the Melbourne University algorithm applied to ERA-Interim. The novelty of this study lies in the length of the dataset (1979–2014), using PMC tracks to infer relationships to large-scale flow patterns, and elucidating the sensitivity to different selection criteria when defining PMCs and polar lows and their genesis environments. The angle between the ambient mean and thermal wind is used to distinguish two different PMC genesis environments. The forward shear environment (thermal and mean wind have the same direction) features typical baroclinic conditions with a temperature gradient at the surface and a strong jet stream at the tropopause. The reverse shear environment (thermal and mean wind have opposite directions) features an occluded cyclone with a barotropic structure throughout the entire troposphere and a low-level jet. In contrast to previous studies, PMC occurrence features neither a significant trend nor a significant link with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavian blocking (SB), though the SB negative pattern seems to promote reverse shear PMC genesis. The sea ice extent in the Nordic seas is not associated with overall changes in PMC occurrence but influences the genesis location. Selected cold air outbreak indices and the temperature difference between the sea surface and 500 hPa (SST − T500) show no robust link with PMC occurrence, but the characteristics of forward shear PMCs and their synoptic environments are sensitive to the choice of the SST − T500 threshold.

scholarly journals No Country for Men: Searching for Late Medieval Submerged Settlements in the North-Eastern Zuiderzee Area in the Netherlands

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 567-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yftinus T. van Popta
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Cultural Landscape ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Economic Networks ◽  
Late Medieval ◽  
Maritime Cultural Landscape ◽  
The North ◽  
Maritime Culture ◽  
North Eastern

This article focuses on the maritime cultural landscape of the former Zuiderzee (ad 1170–1932) in the central part of the Netherlands. Since the large-scale reclamations from the sea (1932–1968), many remains have been discovered, revealing a submerged and eroded late medieval maritime culture, represented by lost islands, drowned settlements, cultivated lands, shipwrecks, and consequently socio-economic networks. Especially the north-eastern part of the region, known today as the Noordoostpolder, is testimony to the dynamic battles of the Dutch against the water. By examining physical and immaterial datasets from the region, it is possible to give a modern-day idea of this late medieval maritime cultural landscape. Spatial distribution and densities of late medieval archaeological remains are analysed and compared to historical data and remote sensing results. This interdisciplinary approach has led to the discovery of the remains of the drowned settlement of Fenehuysen.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Flow Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation and Atmospheric Rivers over Norway

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (4) ◽  
pp. 1415-1428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imme Benedict ◽  
Karianne Ødemark ◽  
Thomas Nipen ◽  
Richard Moore
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Fuzzy Cluster ◽  
The South ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract A climatology of extreme cold season precipitation events in Norway from 1979 to 2014 is presented, based on the 99th percentile of the 24-h accumulated precipitation. Three regions, termed north, west, and south are identified, each exhibiting a unique seasonal distribution. There is a proclivity for events to occur during the positive phase of the NAO. The result is statistically significant at the 95th percentile for the north and west regions. An overarching hypothesis of this work is that anomalous moisture flux, or so-called atmospheric rivers (ARs), are integral to extreme precipitation events during the Norwegian cold season. An objective analysis of the integrated vapor transport illustrates that more than 85% of the events are associated with ARs. An empirical orthogonal function and fuzzy cluster technique is used to identify the large-scale weather patterns conducive to the moisture flux and extreme precipitation. Five days before the event and for each of the three regions, two patterns are found. The first represents an intense, southward-shifted jet with a southwest–northeast orientation. The second identifies a weak, northward-shifted, zonal jet. As the event approaches, regional differences become more apparent. The distinctive flow pattern conducive to orographically enhanced precipitation emerges in the two clusters for each region. For the north and west regions, this entails primarily zonal flow impinging upon the south–north-orientated topography, the difference being the latitude of the strong flow. In contrast, the south region exhibits a significant southerly component to the flow.

scholarly journals Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes due to winter sea-ice retreat on Black Carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Pozzoli ◽  
Srdan Dobricic ◽  
Simone Russo ◽  
Elisabetta Vignati
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Winter warming and sea ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades determine changes of large scale atmospheric circulation pattern that may impact as well the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a new statistical algorithm, based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large scale weather patterns (the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian Blocking, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation), associated with winter increasing temperatures and sea ice retreat in the Arctic, impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that the three atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the Eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the Western Arctic. The increasing trend is mainly due to the more frequent occurrences of stable high pressure systems (atmospheric blocking) near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a smaller impact on BC deposition in the Arctic, but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation does not influence significantly the transport and deposition of BC to the Arctic. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

scholarly journals Improving Meteorological Seasonal Forecasts for Hydrological Modeling in European Winter

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 317-332
Author(s):  
Nicky Stringer ◽  
Jeff Knight ◽  
Hazel Thornton
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
The North ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Correlation Skill

AbstractRecent advances in the skill of seasonal forecasts in the extratropics during winter mean they could offer improvements to seasonal hydrological forecasts. However, the signal-to-noise paradox, whereby the variability in the ensemble mean signal is lower than would be expected given its correlation skill, prevents their use to force hydrological models directly. We describe a postprocessing method to adjust for this problem, increasing the size of the predicted signal in the large-scale circulation. This reduces the ratio of predictable components in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from 3 to 1. We then derive a large ensemble of daily sequences of spatially gridded rainfall that are consistent with the seasonal mean NAO prediction by selecting historical observations conditioned on the adjusted NAO forecasts. Over northern and southwestern Europe, where the NAO is strongly correlated with winter mean rainfall, the variability of the predicted signal in the adjusted rainfall forecasts is consistent with the correlation skill (they have a ratio of predictable components of ~1) and are as skillful as the unadjusted forecasts. The adjusted forecasts show larger predicted deviations from climatology and can be used to better assess the risk of extreme seasonal mean precipitation as well as to force hydrological models.

scholarly journals Heavy Rainfall and Landslide Event in January 1831 at the Pedregoso Mountains (Cabeza Del Buey, SW Spain)

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Pedro García-Garrido ◽  
María Cruz Gallego ◽  
Teodoro Palacios ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
José Manuel Vaquero
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Triggering Mechanism ◽  
Sw Spain ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
High Precipitation ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

In this work, a landslide event that took place on January 1831 at the Pedregoso Mountains, Cabeza del Buey, SW Spain, is described. This landslide had not been documented to date and was only described in the local press. This event involved an estimated amount of dislodged material in the order of 104 m3. The amount of meteorological data is very scarce as the event occurred before the setting up of the national meteorological service in Spain. However, data from the relatively near location of SW Iberia suggest that the landslide was preceded by a prolonged period of unusually high precipitation totals and that this intense wet period is compatible with the large-scale atmospheric configuration in the winter of 1829–1830. In fact, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for that winter achieved one of the most negative values observed in the bicentennial period spanning 1821 to 2019. This multidisciplinary work represents the first attempt to report and describe the main triggering mechanism for an historical landslide in the Extremadura region that is similar to other great historical landslides which have already been documented for other locations in Spain.

scholarly journals Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1305-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Steirou ◽  
Lars Gerlitz ◽  
Heiko Apel ◽  
Xun Sun ◽  
Bruno Merz
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Classical Model ◽  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Gev Distribution ◽  
The North ◽  
Streamflow Extremes ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. The link between streamflow extremes and climatology has been widely studied in recent decades. However, a study investigating the effect of large-scale circulation variations on the distribution of seasonal discharge extremes at the European level is missing. Here we fit a climate-informed generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to about 600 streamflow records in Europe for each of the standard seasons, i.e., to winter, spring, summer and autumn maxima, and compare it with the classical GEV distribution with parameters invariant in time. The study adopts a Bayesian framework and covers the period 1950 to 2016. Five indices with proven influence on the European climate are examined independently as covariates, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern (EA), the east Atlantic–western Russian pattern (EA/WR), the Scandinavia pattern (SCA) and the polar–Eurasian pattern (POL). It is found that for a high percentage of stations the climate-informed model is preferred to the classical model. Particularly for NAO during winter, a strong influence on streamflow extremes is detected for large parts of Europe (preferred to the classical GEV distribution for 46 % of the stations). Climate-informed fits are characterized by spatial coherence and form patterns that resemble relations between the climate indices and seasonal precipitation, suggesting a prominent role of the considered circulation modes for flood generation. For certain regions, such as northwestern Scandinavia and the British Isles, yearly variations of the mean seasonal climate indices result in considerably different extreme value distributions and thus in highly different flood estimates for individual years that can also persist for longer time periods.

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