scholarly journals Idiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Market Volatility, and Expected Stock Returns

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Guo ◽  
Robert Savickas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Expected Stock Returns

scholarly journals Information-Theoretic Measures and Modeling Stock Market Volatility: A Comparative Approach

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sheraz ◽  
Imran Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Approximate Entropy ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Information Theoretic Measures ◽  
Garch Modeling

The volatility analysis of stock returns data is paramount in financial studies. We investigate the dynamics of volatility and randomness of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX-100) and obtain insights into the behavior of investors during and before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19 pandemic). The paper aims to present the volatility estimations and quantification of the randomness of PSX-100. The methodology includes two approaches: (i) the implementation of EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, and TGARCH models to estimate the volatilities; and (ii) analysis of randomness in volatilities series, return series, and PSX-100 closing prices for pre-pandemic and pandemic period by using Shannon’s, Tsallis, approximate and sample entropies. Volatility modeling suggests the existence of the leverage effect in both the underlying periods of study. The results obtained using GARCH modeling reveal that the stock market volatility has increased during the pandemic period. However, information-theoretic results based on Shannon and Tsallis entropies do not suggest notable variation in the estimated volatilities series and closing prices. We have examined regularity and randomness based on the approximate entropy and sample entropy. We have noticed both entropies are extremely sensitive to choices of the parameters.

Effects of Daylight-Saving Time Changes on Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility: Rebuttal

2013 ◽  
Vol 112 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark J. Kamstra ◽  
Lisa A. Kramer ◽  
Maurice D. Levi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Daylight Saving Time ◽  
Daylight Saving ◽  
Time Changes ◽  
Saving Effect

In a 2011 reply to our 2010 comment in this journal, Berument and Dogen maintained their challenge to the existence of the negative daylight-saving effect in stock returns reported by Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi in 2000. Unfortunately, in their reply, Berument and Dogen ignored all of the points raised in the comment, failing even to cite the Kamstra, et al. comment. Berument and Dogen continued to use inappropriate estimation techniques, over-parameterized models, and low-power tests and perhaps most surprisingly even failed to replicate results they themselves reported in their previous paper, written by Berument, Dogen, and Onar in 2010. The findings reported by Berument and Dogen, as well as by Berument, Dogen, and Onar, are neither well-supported nor well-reasoned. We maintain our original objections to their analysis, highlight new serious empirical and theoretical problems, and emphasize that there remains statistically significant evidence of an economically large negative daylight-saving effect in U.S. stock returns. The issues raised in this rebuttal extend beyond the daylight-saving effect itself, touching on methodological points that arise more generally when deciding how to model financial returns data.

Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Six Emerging Markets

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-93
Author(s):  
Naliniprava Tripathy ◽  
Ashish Garg
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Efficient Management ◽  
Asymmetric Garch

This paper forecasts the stock market volatility of six emerging countries by using daily observations of indices over the period of January 1999 to May 2010 by using ARCH, GARCH, GARCH-M, EGARCH and TGARCH models. The study reveals the positive relationship between stock return and risk only in Brazilian stock market. The analysis exhibits that the volatility shocks are quite persistent in all country’s stock market. Further the asymmetric GARCH models find a significant evidence of asymmetry in stock returns in all six country’s stock markets. This study confirms the presence of leverage effect in the returns series and indicates that bad news generate more impact on the volatility of the stock price in the market. The study concludes that volatility increases disproportionately with negative shocks in stock returns. Hence investors are advised to use investment strategies by analyzing recent and historical news and forecast the future market movement while selecting portfolio for efficient management of financial risks to reap benefits in the stock markets.

scholarly journals Effects of Daylight Savings Time Changes on Stock Market Volatility

2010 ◽  
Vol 106 (2) ◽  
pp. 632-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hakan Berument ◽  
Nukhet Dogan ◽  
Bahar Onar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
Time Effect ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Time Effects ◽  
Time Changes

The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.

How do volatility regimes affect the pricing of quality and liquidity in the stock market?

2019 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarik Bazgour ◽  
Cedric Heuchenne ◽  
Georges Hübner ◽  
Danielle Sougné
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Flight To Quality ◽  
Volatility Regimes ◽  
The Cross

Abstract This paper shows how stock market volatility regimes affect the cross-section of stock returns along quality and liquidity dimensions. We find that, during crisis periods, low quality and low liquidity stocks experience relatively higher losses than predicted in normal times, while high quality and high liquidity stocks experience rather relatively lower losses. These findings lend strong support to the presence of cross-market and within-market flight-to-quality and to-liquidity episodes during crisis periods. During low volatility periods, however, low quality and low liquidity stocks earn relatively larger returns, while high quality and high liquidity stocks yield lower returns; suggesting that low volatility conditions benefit junk and illiquid stocks but not quality and liquid stocks. Finally, our results reveal that liquidity level dominates liquidity beta in explaining stock returns across the different market volatility regimes.

The association between stock price volatility and financial news – a sentiment analysis approach

Kybernetes ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (8) ◽  
pp. 1341-1365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia-Lang Seng ◽  
Hsiao-Fang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial News ◽  
Depth Analysis

Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop the dictionary with grammar and multiword structure has to be used in conjunction with sentiment analysis to investigate the relationship between financial news and stock market volatility. Design/methodology/approach An algorithm has been developed for calculating the sentiment orientation and score of data with added information, and the results of calculation have been integrated to construct an empirical model for calculating stock market volatility. Findings The experimental results reveal a statistically significant relationship between financial news and stock market volatility. Moreover, positive (negative) news is found to be positively (negatively) correlated with positive stock returns, and the score of added information of the news is positively correlated with stock returns. Model verification and stock market volatility predictions are verified over four time periods (monthly, quarterly, semiannually and annually). The results show that the prediction accuracy of the models approaches 66% and stock market volatility with a particular trend-predicting effect in specific periods by using moving window evaluation. Research limitations/implications Only one news source is used and the research period is only two years; thus, future studies should incorporate several data sources and use a longer period to conduct a more in-depth analysis. Practical implications Understanding trends in stock market volatility can decrease risk and increase profit from investment. Therefore, individuals or businesses can feasibly engage in investment activities for profit by understanding volatility trends in capital markets. Originality/value The ability to exploit textual information could potentially increase the quality of the data. Few scholars have applied sentiment analysis in investigating interdisciplinary topics that cover information management technology, accounting and finance. Furthermore, few studies have provided support for structured and unstructured data. In this paper, the efficiency of providing the algorithm, the model and the trend in stock market volatility has been demonstrated.

scholarly journals Geopolitical Risk and Stock Market Volatility in Emerging Economies: Evidence from GARCH-MIDAS Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Menglong Yang ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Adan Yi ◽  
Peng Peng
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Threat Index ◽  
Model Confidence Set ◽  
Country Specific

Previous studies have found that geopolitical risk (GPR) caused by geopolitical events such as terrorist attacks can affect the movements of asset prices. However, the studies on whether and how these influences can explain and predict the volatility of stock returns in emerging markets are scant and emerging. By using the data from China’s CSI 300 index, we provide some evidence on whether and how the GPR factors can explain and forecast the volatility of stock returns in emerging economies. We employed the GARCH-MIDAS model and the model confidence set (MCS) to investigate the mechanism of GPR’s impact on the China stock market, and we considered the GPR index, geopolitical action index, geopolitical threat index, and different country-specific GPR indices. The empirical results suggest that except for a few emerging economies such as Mexico, Argentina, Russia, India, South Africa, Thailand, Israel, and Ukraine, the global and most of the regional GPR have a significant impact on China’s stock market. This paper provides some evidence for the different effects of GPR from different countries on China’s stock market volatility. As for predictive potential, GPRAct (geopolitical action index) has the best predictive power among all six types of GPR indices. Considering that GPR is usually unanticipated, these findings shed light on the role of the GPR factors in explaining and forecasting the volatility of China’s market returns.

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