Varietal Threat Index for Monitoring Crop Diversity on Farms in Five Agro-Ecological Regions in India

Our knowledge about the status of agrobiodiversity on farms is still very limited. While several studies to assess the crop genetic diversity on farms have been undertaken, there are no systematic documentation and monitoring practices for varietal diversity in space and time. Achievement of the agrobiodiversity Aichi Target 13, established under the Biodiversity Strategy Plan 2011–2020, have failed due to the lack of existing data on varietal diversity at country, regional and global levels. Here, we propose a method for calculating the Varietal Threat Index using the four-cell analysis (FCA) participatory methodology at different geographical scales to monitor changes in the varietal diversity on farms and to compare between areas. We tested the method with datasets collected from the UN-Environment GEF project implemented in India, in which data on crop and varietal diversity were collected across seven states in India, covering five agroecological regions. Results showed that landraces are still commonly grown in the study sites, especially in the central and western regions, and that more than 50% of landraces are considered threatened, suggesting that conservation interventions are required to prevent large-scale genetic erosion. A long-term monitoring framework for varietal diversity in India is proposed.

Geopolitical Risk and Stock Market Volatility in Emerging Economies: Evidence from GARCH-MIDAS Model

Previous studies have found that geopolitical risk (GPR) caused by geopolitical events such as terrorist attacks can affect the movements of asset prices. However, the studies on whether and how these influences can explain and predict the volatility of stock returns in emerging markets are scant and emerging. By using the data from China’s CSI 300 index, we provide some evidence on whether and how the GPR factors can explain and forecast the volatility of stock returns in emerging economies. We employed the GARCH-MIDAS model and the model confidence set (MCS) to investigate the mechanism of GPR’s impact on the China stock market, and we considered the GPR index, geopolitical action index, geopolitical threat index, and different country-specific GPR indices. The empirical results suggest that except for a few emerging economies such as Mexico, Argentina, Russia, India, South Africa, Thailand, Israel, and Ukraine, the global and most of the regional GPR have a significant impact on China’s stock market. This paper provides some evidence for the different effects of GPR from different countries on China’s stock market volatility. As for predictive potential, GPRAct (geopolitical action index) has the best predictive power among all six types of GPR indices. Considering that GPR is usually unanticipated, these findings shed light on the role of the GPR factors in explaining and forecasting the volatility of China’s market returns.

Relationships between Insufficient Drinking Water Supply and the Socio-Economic Development of Small Municipalities: Mayors’ Opinions from the Czech Republic

Repeatedly occurring droughts in the Czech Republic in previous years have heightened the need to answer questions concerning the provision of drinking water in small municipalities in the context of their development. The goal of the research was to assess what mutual relationships exist between insufficient drinking water supply and the socio-economic level of municipalities with less than 2000 inhabitants. The basis of the study is formed by data collected via a questionnaire survey of the mayors of 2110 municipalities. For the purposes of the analysis, the Drinking Water Supply Threat Index (DWSTI) composite indicator was established. Subsequently, the effect of selected factors on DWSTI was determined via correlation and regression analysis, and results were compared for two size groups of municipalities indicate water supply problems. The digging of new wells for individual needs is seen to be the most significant signal of problems. The absence of water supply infrastructure results in a heightening of the socio-economic deprivation of small municipalities, as it limits new building and becomes a limitation to their development. A solution is possible based on regional or trans-regional financial and managerial support of development together with an active approach on the part of municipalities.

The Geopolitical Threat Index: A Text-Based Computational Approach to Identifying Foreign Threats

Few concepts figure more prominently in the study of international politics than threat. Yet scholars do not agree on how to identify and measure threats or systematically incorporate leaders’ perceptions of threat into their models. In this research note, we introduce a text-based strategy and method for identifying and measuring elite assessments of international threat from publicly available sources. Using semi-supervised machine learning models, we show how text sourced from newspaper articles can be parsed to discern arguments that distinguish threatening from non-threatening states, and to measure and track variation in the intensity of foreign threats over time. To demonstrate proof of concept, we use news summaries from The New York Times from 1861 to 2017 to create a geopolitical threat index (GTI) for the United States. We show that the index successfully matches periods in US history that historians identify as high and low threat and correctly identifies countries that have posed a threat to US security at different points in its history. We compare and contrast GTI with traditional indicators of international threat that rely on measures of material capability and interstate behavior.

Sounding-derived parameters associated with severe hail events in Romania

The present paper analyzes 549 severe weather events reported to the ESWD (European Severe Weather Database) that caused large hail in the territory of Romania. Values of atmospheric instability indices have been analyzed for these episodes using data from Bucharest and Budapest sounding stations. For a period of 140 days with episodes of large hail, 24 instability indices were analyzed to describe the atmospheric conditions of the main daily convective activity. The mean values for most indices characterize an unstable atmospheric environment. Of the indices that measure potential instability, VT (vertical totals index) and TT (totals index) had values that described a conductive atmospheric environment for the development of hailstorms. In addition, the interquartile values of LIV (lifted index using virtual temperature) had values lower than zero. For SWEAT (severe weather threat index) and CAPEV (convective available potential energy index using virtual temperature), only the values in the 75th percentile describe a very unstable environment (according to the literature). Strong linear correlations were registered between several pairs of indices such as CAPEV-LIV and SWEAT-SI that can be used for the operational forecast of hail.

Evaluating the threat to national information security

An effective strategy for managing the national information security with capabilities to resist information threats significantly impacts its further development. This study aims to assess the level of threat to the information security of countries based on the integral index. It is proposed to use five indicators characterizing individual areas of information security and 37 world development indicators, selected from the World Bank database. Correlation analysis selected 12 out of 37 development indicators relevant to security indicators for which the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.5 or –0.5. The Harrington-Mencher function is proposed to determine the information security threat index. Nonlinear normalization was carried out to bring the initial data to a comparable measurement. Canonical analysis was performed to determine the indicator weights. The data from 159 countries were taken for 2018 to assess the index. The result was presented on the map showing countries’ distribution by the information security threat index, thus forming five groups. The group with a “very well” resistance to threats includes economically developed countries with a high level of information security. The “well” group was formed by new industrial and developing countries with economic potential sufficient to prevent information threats and combat their consequences. The information security level in developing countries, where the results of overcoming information threats will affect the economic sphere, is defined as “acceptable”. Countries with a low level of development and information security formed groups designated as “bad” and “very bad”, which indicates a high level of threats to their information security. AcknowledgmentThis work is carried out with in the tax payer – funded researches: No. 0118U003574 “Cybersecurity in the banking fraud enforcement: protection of financial service consumers and the financial and economic security growth in Ukraine”.

Critical Success Factors for Neutralization of Airborne Threats

Decisions regarding neutralizing airborne threats in the combat environment require comprehensive knowledge of resources at hand and enemy intentions. The complexity of the situation has resulted in the emergence of various models encompassing important factors of threat neutralization. Various characteristics of airborne threats considered important for their assessment have already been identified in previous literature, which include speed, distance, approach angle, maneuverability, and so on. Due to the possible extent of loss to critical assets, literature has emphasized on identifying as many useful characteristics of threats as possible. This study is also a step in this direction to improve the weapon assignment for threat neutralization. Weapon assignment based on a well-calculated threat index is a key to success in military conflicts. The purpose of this article is to identify new factors through the involvement of experts. In this study, a set of factors has been identified through a survey of relevant literature and semi-structured interviews followed by its refinement through a three-round Delphi study. The results suggest that airborne threats are considered different from other threats due to their lethality and consequences. The top-level decision-makers require a comprehensive understanding of the criticality of the situation and the effects of poor decisions. Besides other factors, weapon stock, supply chain information, and analysis of vulnerable assets/points in threat neutralization are critical to accomplish higher efficiency. The shortlisted factors yield a foundation of a comprehensive framework for decision making in a highly dynamic environment of air defense.

FORMATION OF AN INTEGRATED THREAT INDEX OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

The article considers the formation of an integrated threat index of the national economy. The purpose of the study is to form a methodological basis for determining the threat index of the national economy. It is determined that currently there is no perfect effective and high-quality approach to the methods of identifying threats to the country's economy, which causes an urgent need to develop an effective national methodology for ensuring the national economic security of the country. To assess the threat index of the national economy, a structural-logical mathematical model was built, which includes the appropriate sequence of certain stages of the study. First, an information base of input predictors for the period in the dynamics, such as the state budget deficit, total debt, the share of foreign capital in the authorized capital of banks, international reserves in the months of import, the level of dollarization, the share of foreign currency in the money supply, control corruption, political stability and absence of violence / terrorism, rule of law, inflation rate, unemployment rate, GINI index, shadow economy level. The following are the indicators of the input information base of the study to a comparable form by conducting nonlinear normalization. The next step is to select the relevant indicators for estimating the threat index of the national economy on the basis of a combination of Pareto methods and scatter plot; the theoretical aspects of application of the specified methods to filtering of relevant predictors of input information base of research are considered. The final stage was the assessment of the integrated threat index of the national economy using the Kernel function and the multiplicative form of convolution. The visualization of both the general trend of the behavior of the integral index of time threats and variations within the minimum and maximum possible levels is carried out. The practical application of the proposed methodology will allow timely and prompt support of the necessary organizational, institutional, regulatory conditions that provide the ability of the national economy to withstand external and internal threats and burdens, further quality adaptation to problems and destabilizing factors, rapid recovery from adverse factors.