Predicting Successful Phase Advancement and Regulatory Approval in Multiple Myeloma From Phase I Overall Response Rates

Purpose Drug development in oncology is resource intensive, time consuming, and frequently unsuccessful. Here, we hypothesized that therapeutic benefit of published phase I studies of antimyeloma investigational agents was associated with advancement to phase II and future regulatory approval. Patients and Methods Seventy four phase I trials that treated patients with multiple myeloma (n = 2,408) conducted from 2004 to 2015 were analyzed to assess drug safety, efficacy, phase advancement, and regulatory approval. Results The median overall response rate (ORR) for all single-agent trials evaluated was 13.2%. However, the ORR in trials that advanced to phase II was 19%, whereas it was only 4% in trials that failed to advance. The median ORR was 23% for trials testing agents that were ultimately approved by the US Food and Drug Administration compared with only 8% for trials testing agents that were not approved (hazard ratio, 2.21; 95% CI, 2.01 to 2.61; P = .012). Importantly, the absolute number of phase I trials in multiple myeloma, but not the success rate, significantly increased over the period studied. The proportion of industry-sponsored trials also steadily increased over that same period. The ratio of initial dose to maximum tolerated dose was 0.29, suggesting that many patients were undertreated. Conclusion Investigational agents with higher ORRs in phase I trials were more likely to advance to phase II trials and achieve US Food and Drug Administration approval. Our results suggest that designing phase I trials to maximize the antimyeloma efficacy of a given compound may lead to more successful and cost-effective drug development.