Long-term development of Russian refineries based on the most probable scenarios of energy markets evolution

2019 ◽  
pp. 50-56
Author(s):  
G. Oganian ◽  
B. Kharchenko
Keyword(s):  
Energy Markets

Ostatni będą pierwszymi? LNG w polityce energetycznej Rosji

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 97-120
Author(s):  
Szymon Kardaś
Keyword(s):  
Energy Markets ◽  
The State ◽  
External Energy ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Russian State ◽  
Internal Structures ◽  
Constant State ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of the article is to analyze the current condition and development prospects for the Russian LNG sector. Taking into account the specifics of the functioning of the Russian state, the author chose the realistic paradigm (neoclassical realism), which is useful in the context of showing the relationship between internal structures and external activity of the state. The author argues that Russian expansion in the LNG sector is the result of the lobbying capacity of Novatek – the largest private gas producer in Russia. Although the state budget incurs significant costs related to the implementation of Novatek projects, in particular due to fiscal preferences, it also achieves the possibility of achieving the objectives in external and internal energy policy. Novatek’s expansion increases Russia’s share in external energy markets; at the same time LNG expansion, it is used for internal purposes. Novatek’s dominant position in the LNG sector is confirmed by both already implemented projects and plans for further expansion. The factors favoring Russian expansion are constant state support for Novatek projects, high level of internationalization of implemented projects and favorable forecasts on energy markets. The strong competition between currently dominant LNG producers and the risk of internal competition between Russian exporters are among the key long-term challenges.

scholarly journals Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 279 (3) ◽  
pp. 1011-1023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Moreno ◽  
Alfonso Novales ◽  
Federico Platania
Keyword(s):  
Energy Markets

scholarly journals Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

Nature Energy ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
David L. McCollum ◽  
Jessica Jewell ◽  
Volker Krey ◽  
Morgan Bazilian ◽  
Marianne Fay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Markets

scholarly journals PRICE FORECASTING MECHANISMS OF MODERN ENERGY MARKETS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasyl Gorbachuk ◽  
◽  
Andrij Syrku ◽  
Seit-Bekir Suleimanov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Storage ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Power Grids ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Sources

The trends of European energy markets depend on the forecasting of fundamental price based on the modeling approaches for short-term physical electricity markets, including day-ahead trade markets for energy power, intra-day trade markets for energy power, trade for balancing or reserving energy capacity. The typical hierarchy of modeling on modern market consists of the fundamental model of long-term planning to years ahead (where stochastic aggregation or disaggregation for price forecasting takes place), the model of medium-term planning to months ahead (where the stochastic modeling of semi aggregated hydro energy with generation of cuts, at prices given, takes place), and the model of short-term planning to weeks ahead (where the deterministic modeling of disaggregated hydro energy, at prices given, takes place). The model of long-term planning is a fundamental one in the sense of a detailed and adequate description of market, supply, demand, and network topology. The models of medium-term and short-term planning are typical ones for regional markets. Energy storage technologies have changed modern energy markets. If the traditional power grids have worked like ultimate just-in-time supply chains without stocks and with almost immediate delivery of good (electricity), then modernized power grids will create new opportunities for their optimization and operation. The new power grids will resemble common supply chains with stocks (in the form of large-scale batteries and other energy storage devices), supply uncertainty (from variable power sources such as wind and solar power plants), high customer service requirements (under deregulating of the electricity market and entering of new competitors to the market), the newest pricing schemes (due to the new communication infrastructure allowing information transmission for real time pricing). An energy storage system can be viewed as a system of stocks, where the product stored is the energy instead of a traditional good. Then a series of models of energy storage management is based on the fundamental theory of inventory optimization. On the other hand, energy storage systems usually have more room for decision: in addition to the decision to purchase a product (as in classic inventory models), there may be decisions about the quantity and the price of product sales.

scholarly journals APPROACHES TO STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF THE PROSPECTS OF AFRICAN ELECTRICITY MARKETS FOR RUSSIAN COMPANIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 64-69
Author(s):  
A. O. Mamonov ◽  
I, V. Tarasov
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Strategic Assessment ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Quantitative Indicators

This article is devoted to development of methodological approaches to evalution of African energy markets’ strategic opportunities for Russian companies. The main research method in this paper is in-depth case study, which allows to test proposed approaches. The subject of case study is one of the largest African countries – Nigeria. A comprehensive analysis of nigerian energy market from the standpoint of quantitative indicators, technological and financial prospects, as well as the difficulties associated with entering the market, and the possibilities of overcoming them, is carried out. The long-term prospect of the feasibility of entering the energy markets within African countries has been identified.

scholarly journals Dynamic Evaluation of Policy Feasibility, Feedbacks and the Ambitions of COALitions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Bi ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
Jessica Jewell
Keyword(s):  
Policy Evaluation ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Median Estimate ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Energy Economy ◽  
Dynamic Policy

Abstract The Paris Agreement prioritised international bottom-up climate negotiations. Meanwhile, research has asserted the coal exit as a prerequisite for Paris-consistent pathways. The Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), an opt-in initiative toward phasing-out coal-fired electricity by mid-century, embodies both paradigms but currently encompasses just 5% of global coal demand. To assess its long-term prospects against Paris-consistent pathways, we couple the energy-economy model REMIND to an empirical coalition accession model and demonstrate a novel scenario analysis technique, Dynamic Policy Evaluation (DPE). Capturing co-evolutionary feedbacks between policy uptake and global energy markets, we simulate nationally-and-temporally-fragmented PPCA accession and analyse its sensitivity to coalition growth, sectoral ambition, and Covid-19-related uncertainty. Surprisingly, we find that virtually-global PPCA participation achieves <3% of 1.5oC-consistent coal declines, as non-electric consumption remains unregulated. In contrast, our median-estimate scenario (82% accession) assuming economy-wide coverage achieves ~53% efficacy (virtually-global: ~85%), suggesting that the PPCA should prioritise policy ambition over coalition expansion.

scholarly journals Dynamic Evaluation of Policy Feasibility, Feedbacks and the Ambitions of COALitions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Bi ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
Jessica Jewell
Keyword(s):  
Policy Evaluation ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Median Estimate ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Energy Economy ◽  
Dynamic Policy

Abstract The Paris Agreement prioritised international bottom-up climate negotiations. Meanwhile, research has asserted the coal exit as a prerequisite for Paris-consistent pathways. The Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), an opt-in initiative toward phasing-out coal-fired electricity by mid-century, embodies both paradigms but currently encompasses just 5% of global coal demand. To assess its long-term prospects against Paris-consistent pathways, we couple the energy-economy model REMIND to an empirical coalition accession model and demonstrate a novel scenario analysis technique, Dynamic Policy Evaluation (DPE). Capturing co-evolutionary feedbacks between policy uptake and global energy markets, we simulate nationally-and-temporally-fragmented PPCA accession and analyse its sensitivity to coalition growth, sectoral ambition, and Covid-19-related uncertainty. Surprisingly, we find that virtually-global PPCA participation achieves <3% of 1.5oC-consistent coal declines, as non-electric consumption remains unregulated. In contrast, our median-estimate scenario (82% accession) assuming economy-wide coverage achieves ~53% efficacy (virtually-global: ~85%), suggesting that the PPCA should prioritise policy ambition over coalition expansion.

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