Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Bryant ◽  
Junni L. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Estimation

scholarly journals Citizens are not as misinformed as they first appear: Errors in estimates of population size reflect common psychological processes

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Landy ◽  
Tyler Marghetis ◽  
Brian Guay
Keyword(s):  
Human Behavior ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Media Bias ◽  
Psychological Processes ◽  
Estimation Errors ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Decisions ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Proportion Estimation ◽  
Demographic Estimation

Americans’ tendency to massively overestimate the proportion of Americans who are immigrants, Muslim, LGBTQ, and Latino, but underestimate those who are white or Christian has been well documented and publicized over the past decade. Previous explanations have invoked issue-specific mechanisms such as xenophobia or media bias to explain these estimation errors. We reconsider this pattern of errors in the light of more than 30 years of research on the psychological processes involved in proportion estimation. In a publicly available datasets featuring demographic estimates from 14 countries, we find that proportion estimates in macro-scale demographic situations correspond closely to what is found when people estimate much smaller objects in lab conditions, and when they make economic decisions. We conclude that demographic estimation biases are part of a very general pattern of human behavior—independent of the particular topic or demographic under consideration. Topic-specific explanations such as media bias and xenophobia must be reinterpreted in light of a richer understanding of how humans estimate quantities generally.

scholarly journals Advancing the genetic utility of pre-clinical species through a high-quality assembly of the cynomolgus monkey (Macaca fascicularis) genome

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias Oziolor ◽  
Shawn Sullivan ◽  
Hayley Mangelson ◽  
Stephen M. Eacker ◽  
Michael Agostino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biomedical Research ◽  
Genetic Architecture ◽  
Cynomolgus Macaque ◽  
Hybrid Assembly ◽  
Primate Model ◽  
Sequencing Technologies ◽  
Macaque Genome ◽  
Long Read ◽  
Demographic Estimation ◽  
Human Primate

AbstractThe cynomolgus macaque is a non-human primate model, heavily used in biomedical research, but with outdated genomic resources. Here we have used the latest long-read sequencing technologies in order to assemble a fully phased, chromosome-level assembly for the cynomolgus macaque. We have built a hybrid assembly with PacBio, 10x Genomics, and HiC technologies, resulting in a diploid assembly that spans a length of 5.1 Gb with a total of 16,741 contigs (N50 of 0.86Mb) contained in 370 scaffolds (N50 of 138 Mb) positioned on 42 chromosomes (21 homologous pairs). This assembly is highly homologous to former assemblies and identifies novel inversions and provides higher confidence in the genetic architecture of the cynomolgus macaque genome. A demographic estimation is also able to capture the recent genetic bottleneck in the Mauritius population, from which the sequenced individual originates. We offer this resource as an enablement for genetic tools to be built around this important model for biomedical research.

Features Descriptors for Demographic Estimation: A Comparative Study

2014 ◽  
pp. 66-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierluigi Carcagnì ◽  
Marco Del Coco ◽  
Pier Luigi Mazzeo ◽  
Andrea Testa ◽  
Cosimo Distante
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Study ◽  
Demographic Estimation

scholarly journals National and subnational experience with estimating the extent and trend in completeness of registration of deaths in Brazil

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernardo L Queiroz ◽  
Everton Lima
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
Public Health Planning ◽  
Its Regions ◽  
Demographic Estimation ◽  
The City ◽  
Compare And Contrast

In this paper, we analyze the evolution of the completeness of death counts coverage in Brazil and its regions since 1980. We review a series of studies on the quality of mortality registration for the country, states and small areas, compare and contrast different approaches and results. We also investigate the quality of the 2010 Census data regarding the information on household deaths in 2010 to results obtained using the Ministry of Health Mortality Information System. Finally, we produce estimates at the city level and discuss the limitation and importance of producing small areas demographic estimation for public health planning and population forecasts.

scholarly journals Bayesian Estimation of Total Fertility from a Population's Age-Sex Distribution

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Schmertmann ◽  
Mathew Hauer
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Indigenous Population ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Sex Distribution ◽  
Vital Event ◽  
Sex Structure ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
The Us ◽  
Demographic Estimation ◽  
Standard Approximation

We investigate a modern statistical approach to a classic deterministic demographic estimation technique. When vital event registration is missing or inadequate, it is possible to approximate a population's total fertility (TFR) from information about its distribution by age and sex. For example, if under-five child mortality is low then TFR is often close to seven times the child/woman ratio (CWR), the number of 0--4 year olds per 15--49 year old woman. We analyze the formal relationship between CWR and TFR to identify sources of uncertainty in indirect estimates. We construct a Bayesian model for the statistical distribution of TFR conditional on the population's age-sex structure, in which unknown demographic quantities in the standard approximation are parameters with prior distributions. We apply the model in two case studies: to a small indigenous population in the Amazon region of Brazil that has extremely high fertility rates, and to the set of 159 counties in the US state of Georgia. A statistical approach yields important insights into the sources of error in indirect estimation, and their relative magnitudes.

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