Projections for obesity, smoking and hypertension based on multiple imputation

Aims: Information on the future development of prevalences of risk factors and health indicators is needed to prepare for the forthcoming burden of disease in the population and to allocate resources properly for prevention. We aim to present how multiple imputation can be used flexibly to project future prevalences. Methods: The proposed approach uses data on repeated cross-sectional surveys from different years. We create future samples with age and sex distributions corresponding to the official national population forecasts. Then, the risk factors are simulated using multiple imputation by chained equations. Finally, the imputations are pooled to obtain the prevalences of interest. Covariates, such as sociodemographic variables as well as their possible interactions and non-linear terms, can be included in the modelling. The future development of these covariates is also projected simultaneously. We apply the procedure to data from five Finnish health examination surveys conducted between 1997 and 2017, and project the prevalences of obesity, smoking and hypertension to 2020 and 2025. Results: The prevalence of obesity is projected to increase to 24% for both men and women in 2025. The prevalences of hypertension and smoking are expected to continue decreasing, and the differences between men and women are projected to remain so that men will have higher prevalences. Conclusions: Simulation of future observations by multiple imputation can be used as a flexible yet relatively easy-to-use projection method.

FORECASTING URBAN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION OF ILOILO CITY USING GIS AND SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION MODELS

Rapid urbanization in localities offers a lot of opportunities but also imposes a lot of challenges due to its direct relationship to population growth. This leads to an increase in the demand for essential goods and services such as food, energy, water among others. Hence, small-area population forecasts have long been an important element in urban and regional planning to aid in the decision-making processes in a locality. The promise of smart cities, through the use of advanced technologies, is to make cities livable and sustainable, preparing more opportunities and addressing challenges on urbanization. This study aims to forecast population distribution in Iloilo city by incorporating GIS techniques and highlighting the use of spatial autocorrelation models. The spatial interaction effects between neighboring barangays are taken into consideration to identify a set of factors affecting the population. The results identified a set of significant explanatory variables and whether it will result in an increase or decrease in population. The study also illustrates the resulting population forecast comparing it to the actual total population of the city.

Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures

Although the demand for shoulder arthroplasties has reached its highest number worldwide, there remains a lack of epidemiologic data regarding recent and future trends. In this study, data for all shoulder arthroplasties (hemiarthroplasty, reverse/anatomic shoulder arthroplasty) from the nationwide inpatient statistics of Germany (2010–2019) and population forecasts until 2040 were gathered. A Poisson and a negative binomial approach using monotone B-splines were modeled for all types of prostheses to project the annual number and incidence of primary and revision arthroplasty. Additionally, trends in main indicators were also gathered and expected changes were calculated. Overall, the number of primary shoulder replacements is set to increase significantly by 2040, reaching at least 37,000 (95% CI 32,000–44,000) procedures per year. This trend is mainly attributable to an about 10-fold increased use of fracture-related reverse shoulder arthroplasty in patients over 80 years of age, although the number of procedures in younger patients will also rise substantially. In contrast, hemiarthroplasties will significantly decrease. The number of revision procedures is projected to increase subsequently, although the revision burden is forecast to decline. Using these country-specific projection approaches, a massive increase of primary and revision shoulder arthroplasties is expected by 2040, mainly due to a rising number of fracture-related procedures. These growth rates are substantially higher than those from hip or knee arthroplasty. As these trends are similar in most Western countries, this draws attention to the international issue, of: if healthcare systems will be able to allocate human and financial resources adequately, and if future research and fracture-prevention programs may help to temper this rising burden in the upcoming decades.

Beta-thalassemia in Mediterranean countries. Findings and outlook

Beta-thalassemia is one of the most common genetic disorders among humans. It occurs in many world regions, but the highest levels are recorded in the Mediterranean countries. This study reviews the epidemiology of β-thalassemia in these countries, as well as their resources for fighting the disease, and establishes an outlook on the trends in the pathology between now and 2050. The epidemiological parameters are based on information from specialised databases, while the outlook is derived from the global population forecasts of the United Nations. With an incidence rate at birth of 15.9 cases per 100,000 newborns, the Northern coast of the Mediterranean is the least impacted and has significant health infrastructures; the number of newborns concerned could decrease by 2050. The incidence rate on the Eastern Mediterranean coast, where numerous prevention programmes are available, is twice as high, at 31.4 per 100,000 newborns; over the next 30 years, the number of new cases at birth could increase. The incidence rate on the Southern Mediterranean coast is highest, at 36.8 per 100,000 newborns, and the region continues to suffer from a shortage of health infrastructures; the number of new cases at birth could increase considerably in the region between now and 2050. These long-term projections are based on population growth in the Mediterranean countries and will be changed only by the widespread use of antenatal practices against β-thalassemia. The findings of this study could enable the countries concerned to adapt their healthcare policies.

Migration Forecasting—Significance and Approaches

Migration is defined as the permanent change in an individual’s usual residence. Forecasting migration is an important requisite for population forecasts or for planning in fields that depend on the future size and structure of the population, such as economics, epidemiology, social insurance, or infrastructure. As migration is the most volatile of all demographic components, its modeling is especially difficult. International migration can be modeled and forecast very differently; users should be familiar with the flaws and strengths of these different approaches.

Quantifying the checks and balances of decentralised governance systems for adaptive carnivore management

1.Recovering or threatened carnivore populations are often harvested to minimise their impact on human activities, such as livestock farming or game hunting. Increasingly, harvest quota decisions involve a set of scientific, administrative and political institutions operating at national and sub-national levels whose interactions and collective decision-making aim to increase the legitimacy of management and ensure population targets are met. In practice, however, assessments of how quota decisions change between these different actors and what consequences these changes have on population trends are rare.2.We combine a state-space population modelling approach with an analysis of quota decisions taken at both regional and national levels between 2007 and 2018 to build a set of decision-making models that together predict annual harvest quota values for Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Norway. 3.We reveal a tendency for administrative decision-makers to compensate for consistent quota increases by political actors, particularly when the lynx population size estimate is above the regional target. Using population forecasts based on the ensemble of decision-making models, we show that such buffering of political biases ensures lynx population size remains close to regional and national targets in the long-term.4.Our results go beyond the usual qualitative assessment of decentralised governance systems for carnivore management, revealing a system of checks and balances that, in the case of lynx in Norway, ensures both multi-stakeholder participation and sustainable harvest quotas. 5.Our work provides a predictive framework to evaluate co-participatory decision-making processes in wildlife management, paving the way for scientists and decision-makers to collaborate more widely in identifying where decision biases might lie and how institutional arrangements can be optimised to minimise them. We emphasise, however, that this is only possible if wildlife management decisions are documented and transparent.

Analisis Sektor Basis dan Sektor Non Basis dalam Upaya Peningkatan Sarana dan Prasarana Perkotaan di Kota Padang

[ID] Pembangunan berkelanjutan merupakan bagian dari fokus pembangunan daerah Kota Padang dengan tujuan menyediakan infrastruktur kota dan peningkatan perekonomian kota tahun 2019-2024. Pemerintah terus mengupayakan peningkatan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Kota Padang dengan mengembangkan sektor kegiatan kota yang diimbangi dengan peningkatan sarana dan prasarana perkotaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis sektor usaha yang belum mencapai kategori basis dan maju di Kota Padang. Metode yang digunakan dalam mengetahui sektor basis maupun non basis adalah metode location quotient (LQ). Sedangkan untuk mengetahui sektor maju atau mundur, digunakan analisis shift share. Dilakukan pula Analisis kependudukan melalui metode proyeksi trendline untuk memproyeksi peramalan penduduk pada tahun mendatang. Hasil analysis location quatien (LQ) menunjukkan terdapat dua sektor non basis di Kota Padang yaitu (1) sektor pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan, (2) pertambangan dan penggalian. Selanjutnya, analisis shift-share menunjukkan terdapat empat sektor yang berada pada kategori mundur/ lamban yaitu sektor: (1) pertanian, (2) kehutanan dan perikanan, (3) industri pengolahan, pengadaan air, pengelolaan sampah, limbah dan daur ulang, (4) jasa keuangan dan asuransi. Berdasarkan trendlinepolynominal didapatkan model proyeksi perkiraan penduduk menurut persamaan y = -194.03x2 + 15535x + 815333 dengan R2 = 0.9964. Kebutuhan sarana prasarana untuk meningkatan kualitas hidup yang layak bagi warga Kota Padang diperkirakan meningkat secara dominan pada kelompok usia 20-24 tahun sebagai proyeksi angkatan kerja. Jumlahnya diprediksi sekitar 77.761 jiwa. Penelitian ini diharapkan bermanfaat dalam menentukan fokus penyediaan infrastruktur kota, agar sektor non basis dan sektor pada kategori mundur atau lambat dapat ditingkatkan menjadi kategori sektor basis dan maju. [EN] Sustainable development is part of the regional development focus of Padang City to provide urban infrastructure and improve the city's economy in 2019-2024. The government continues to strive to increase the Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) of the City of Padang by developing a sector of city activities towards improving urban facilities and infrastructure.This research supports the government's efforts in directing the development of the city of Padang. This study aims to analyze the business sector that has not reached the basic and advanced category in Padang City. The method used to determine the basis and non-base sectors is the location quotient (LQ) method. Meanwhile, to determine the forward or backward sector, shift-share analysis is used. Population analysis is also carried out through the trendline projection method to project population forecasts in the coming year. The results of the location quotient (LQ) analysis show that there are two non-basic sectors in the city of Padang, namely (1) agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, (2) mining and quarrying. Furthermore, the shift-share analysis shows that four sectors are in a slow category, namely the sectors: (1) agriculture, (2) forestry and fisheries, (3) processing industry, water supply, waste management, waste, and recycling, (4) financial and insurance services. Based on the polynomial trendline, the population forecast projection model is obtained according to the equation y = -194.03x2 + 15535x + 815333 with R2 = 0.9964. The need for infrastructure and facilities to improve the quality of life that is feasible for the residents of Padang City is predicted to increase dominantly in the 20-24 year age group. The number is predicted to be around 77,761. It is hoped that this research will be useful in determining the focus of urban infrastructure provision, so that non-base sectors and sectors in the backward or later categories can be upgraded to the basic and advanced category.

Methods for small area population forecasts: state-of-the-art and research needs

Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major investment decisions. Yet the toolbox of small area population forecasting methods and techniques is modest relative to that for national and large subnational regional forecasting. In this paper we assess the current state of small area population forecasting, and suggest areas for further research. The paper provides a review of the literature on small area population forecasting methods published over the period 2001-2020. The key themes covered by the review are: extrapolative and comparative methods, simplified cohort-component methods, model averaging and combining, incorporating socio-economic variables and spatial relationships, ‘downscaling’ and disaggregation approaches, linking population with housing, estimating and projecting small area component input data, microsimulation, machine learning, and forecast uncertainty. Several avenues for further research are then suggested, including more work on model averaging and combining, developing new forecasting methods for situations which current models cannot handle, quantifying uncertainty, exploring methodologies such as machine learning and spatial statistics, creating user-friendly tools for practitioners, and understanding more about how forecasts are used.