Imprecise probabilistic framework for power grids risk assessment and sensitivity analysis

Author(s):  
R Rocchetta ◽  
E Patelli
Author(s):  
Annalaura Carducci ◽  
Gabriele Donzelli ◽  
Lorenzo Cioni ◽  
Ileana Federigi ◽  
Roberto Lombardi ◽  
...  

Biological risk assessment in occupational settings currently is based on either qualitative or semiquantitative analysis. In this study, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been applied to estimate the human adenovirus (HAdV) health risk due to bioaerosol exposure in a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). A stochastic QMRA model was developed considering HAdV as the index pathogen, using its concentrations in different areas and published dose–response relationship for inhalation. A sensitivity analysis was employed to examine the impact of input parameters on health risk. The QMRA estimated a higher average risk in sewage influent and biological oxidation tanks (15.64% and 12.73% for an exposure of 3 min). Sensitivity analysis indicated HAdV concentration as a predominant factor in the estimated risk. QMRA results were used to calculate the exposure limits considering four different risk levels (one illness case per 100, 1.000, 10.000, and 100.000 workers): for 3 min exposures, we obtained 565, 170, 54, and 6 GC/m3 of HAdV. We also calculated the maximum time of exposure for each level for different areas. Our findings can be useful to better define the effectiveness of control measures, which would thus reduce the virus concentration or the exposure time.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia-xin Ma ◽  
Bei-bei Cui ◽  
Man-li Liu ◽  
Jie Yuan ◽  
Cheng Yan

Abstract Biological treatment in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) releases high amounts of bioaerosols carrying a variety of pathogens. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a framework prevalently intended for the quantitative estimation of health risks for occupational exposure scenarios (e.g. in WWTPs). However, the quantitative contributions of health-risk-estimate inputted variable parameters remain ambiguous. Therefore, this research aimed to study the disease burden of workers exposed to Staphylococcus aureus bioaerosol during warm and cold periods and to strictly quantify the contributions of the inputted parameters of disease burden by sensitivity analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the disease health risk burden in the warm period was higher than in the cold period, disease health risk burden in the rotating-disc aeration mode was regularly higher than in the microporous aeration mode. The disease health risk burden of the workers with personal protective equipment (PPE) almost all satisfied the WHO benchmark (≤10E-6 DALYs pppy), and was consistently lower by one or two orders of magnitude than the workers without PPE in both warm and cold periods. Referring to the sensitivity analysis, exposure concentration and aerosol ingestion rate were the most and second predominant factor for the estimated risk in all exposure scenarios, respectively. The sensitivity of the removal fraction by employing PPE ranked third in the contribution to disease health risk burden. In addition, no remarkable differences were revealed in the sensitivity percentage ratio between warm and cold periods. This research can deepen the understanding of the QMRA framework and promote the development of sensitivity analysis, especially under various meteorological conditions (warm and cold periods).


Author(s):  
Sitakanta Mohanty ◽  
Budhi Sagar ◽  
Ron Janetzke ◽  
Gordon Wittmeyer ◽  
Wesley Patrick

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