probabilistic risk assessment
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2022 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Xiaohui Xu ◽  
Limin Li ◽  
Heng Zhou ◽  
Qing Hu ◽  
Lingling Wang ◽  

Earthworms are known to accumulate inorganic contaminants from the soil; they are also used as a traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) called Pheretima, which might cause safety problems with long-term exposure. Here, this study was conducted to determine and analyze the level of heavy metal contamination such as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) in Pheretima and then explore the probabilistic health risks caused by 8 heavy metals in 98 batches of Pheretima using Monte Carlo simulation. A risk assessment strategy was conducted to assess heavy metal–associated health risk of Pheretima based on consumption data. For random consumption sampling, the results found that the non-carcinogenic risk of As is higher than the acceptable level, and the carcinogenic risk levels of As and Cr exceeded the acceptable risk recommended by the USEPA. Cr and As were regarded as the priority metals for risk control in the present study. Finally, it was recommended that the dosing frequency should be less than 24 d/y. In general, this study conducted a probabilistic risk assessment of heavy metals in Pheretima, which would be of significance for policy makers to take effective strategies to improve the quality and safety of Pheretima.

2021 ◽  
Vol 154 (A1) ◽  
H Liwång ◽  
J W Ringsberg ◽  
M Norsell

Conflicts of today are characterized by both traditional and irregular tactics and by non-state actors making innovative use of modern technologies. These conditions set new demands on naval ships. The aim of this investigation is to describe how, based on probabilistic risk assessment, the concept of operation for a naval ship can be turned into safety scenarios to be used in the evaluation of risk. In this investigation, civilian state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic risk assessment are merged with the specific demands of naval ships. Relevant aspects of safety culture, codes, regulations and rules are analysed with respect to requirements on safety scenarios, and military operational research with respect to modelling military systems. The results show that the scenarios must have calculable probability and must be adapted to the vessel in question. Results from simulations show that modelling operational tasks is one way to support experts in the definition of safety scenarios.

2021 ◽  
pp. 17-39
Tarannom Parhizkar ◽  
Ingrid B. Utne ◽  
Jan-Erik Vinnem

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