Optimal Surveillance Strategies for Early-Stage Cutaneous Melanoma Post Primary Tumor Excision: An Economic Evaluation

Background. Consensus on standardized active surveillance or follow-up care by clinicians is lacking leading to considerable variation in practice across countries. An important structural modelling consideration is that self-examination by patients and their partners can detect melanoma recurrence outside of active surveillance regimes. Objectives. To identify candidate melanoma surveillance strategies for American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I disease and compare them with the current recommended practice in a cost-utility analysis framework. Methods. In consultation with UK clinical experts, a microsimulation model was built in TreeAge Pro 2019 R1.0 (Williamstown, MA, USA) to evaluate surveillance strategies for AJCC stage IA and IB melanoma patients separately. The model incorporated patient behaviors such as self-detection and emergency visits to examine suspicious lesions. A National Health Service (NHS) perspective was taken. Model input parameters were taken from the literature and where data were not available, local expert opinion was sought. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, one-way sensitivity analysis on pertinent parameters and value of information was performed. Results. In the base-case probabilistic sensitivity analysis, less intensive surveillance strategies for AJCC stage IA and IB had lower total lifetime costs than the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommended strategy with similar effectiveness in terms of quality-adjusted life years and thereby likely to be cost-effective. Many strategies had similar effectiveness due to the relatively low chance of recurrence and the high rate of self-detection. Sensitivity and scenario analyses did not change these findings. Conclusions. Our model findings suggest that less resource intensive surveillance may be cost-effective compared with the current NICE surveillance guidelines. However, to advocate convincingly for changes, better evidence is required.

Cost-effectiveness of dual-mobility components in patients with displaced femoral neck fractures

Aims Total hip arthroplasty (THA) with dual-mobility components (DM-THA) has been shown to decrease the risk of dislocation in the setting of a displaced neck of femur fracture compared to conventional single-bearing THA (SB-THA). This study assesses if the clinical benefit of a reduced dislocation rate can justify the incremental cost increase of DM-THA compared to SB-THA. Methods Costs and benefits were established for patients aged 75 to 79 years over a five-year time period in the base case from the Canadian Health Payer’s perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis assessed the robustness of the base case model conclusions. Results DM-THA was found to be cost-effective, with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of CAD $46,556 (£27,074) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Sensitivity analysis revealed DM-THA was not cost-effective across all age groups in the first two years. DM-THA becomes cost-effective for those aged under 80 years at time periods from five to 15 years, but was not cost-effective for those aged 80 years and over at any timepoint. To be cost-effective at ten years in the base case, DM-THA must reduce the risk of dislocation compared to SB-THA by at least 62%. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed DM-THA was 58% likely to be cost-effective in the base case. Conclusion Treating patients with a displaced femoral neck fracture using DM-THA components may be cost-effective compared to SB-THA in patients aged under 80 years. However, future research will help determine if the modelled rates of adverse events hold true. Surgeons should continue to use clinical judgement and consider individual patients’ physiological age and risk factors for dislocation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1783–1790.

Cost analysis of managing B3 breast lesions by vacuum excision at Leeds Breast Unit using a decision model

ObjectiveTo develop an economic model to evaluate the cost of using vacuum-assisted excision (VAE) for managing B3 breast lesions.DesignA decision tree of managing B3 breast lesions was developed to compare the costs of VAE with diagnostic excision (DE) from the perspective of the healthcare provider. Two different diagnostic pathways were compared which describe alternative approaches to the management of B3 lesions using inputs derived from a mix of primary and secondary data.SettingBased on a study conducted at Leeds Breast Unit, UK.Participants398 patients enter the model having undergone initial core needle biopsy, or vacuum-assisted biopsy, and diagnosed with B3 breast lesion.Main outcome measuresThe economic impact, in terms of cost, of various scenarios using analysis of extremes and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.ResultsVAE reduced the cost per patient by £1510.75. Analysis of extremes showed that managing B3 lesions using VAE was cost saving except the case where a combination of the highest cost associated with VAE and the lowest cost for DE were used. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that using VAE for managing B3 lesions has a probability of 0.9 of being cost saving compared with using DE.ConclusionThis analysis shows the potential cost saving of using VAE as an alternative for managing B3 breast lesions compared with DE. Further research in this area and the effect of the VAE on patients’ quality of life is warranted.

Probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty

The concept of probabilistic parameter threshold analysis has recently been introduced as a way of probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision-making under uncertainty, in particular, for health economic evaluations which compare two or more alternative treatments with consideration of uncertainty on outcomes and costs. In this paper we formulate the probabilistic threshold analysis as a root-finding problem involving the conditional expectations, and propose a pairwise stochastic approximation algorithm to search for the threshold value below and above which the choice of conditionally optimal decision options changes. Numerical experiments for both a simple synthetic testcase and a chemotherapy Markov model illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm, without any need for accurate estimation or approximation of conditional expectations which the existing approaches rely upon. Moreover we introduce a new measure called decision switching probability for probabilistic sensitivity analysis in this paper.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of different screening strategies for colorectal cancer in Guangzhou, southern China: a Markov simulation analysis based on natural community screening results

ObjectivesTo evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four different primary screening strategies: high-risk factor questionnaire (HRFQ) alone, single immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT), double iFOBT and HRFQ+double iFOBT for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening compared with no screening using the Markov model.MethodsTreeage Pro V.2011 software was used to simulate the Markov model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which was compared with the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, was used to reflect the cost-effectiveness of the CRC screening method. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used for parameter uncertainty.ResultsAll strategies had greater effectiveness because they had more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) than no screening. When the WTP was ¥435 762/QALY, all screening strategies were cost-effective compared with no screening. The double iFOBT strategy was the best-buy option compared with all other strategies because it had the most QALYs and the least cost. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the sensitivity of low-risk adenoma, compliance with colonoscopy and primary screening cost were the main influencing factors comparing single iFOBT, double iFOBT and HRFQ+double iFOBT with no screening. However, within the scope of this study, there was no fundamental impact on cost-effectiveness. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that when the WTP was ¥435 762/QALY, the probabilities of the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve with HRFQ alone, single iFOBT, double iFOBT and HRFQ+double iFOBT were 0.0%, 5.3%, 69.3% and 25.4%, respectively.ConclusionsAll screening strategies for CRC were cost-effective compared with no screening strategy. Double iFOBT was the best-buy option compared with all other strategies. The significant influencing factors were the sensitivity of low-risk polyps, compliance with colonoscopy and cost of primary screening.

The Effects of Seismic Coefficient Uncertainty on Pseudo-Static Slope Stability: A Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis

The method of pseudo-static analysis has been widely used to perform seismic slope stability, in which a seismic coefficient is used to represent the earthquake shaking effect. However, it is important but difficult to select the magnitude of seismic coefficients, which are inevitably subjected to different levels of uncertainties. This paper aimed to study the influences of seismic coefficient uncertainties on pseudo-static slope stability from the perspective of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The deterministic critical slope height was estimated by the method of upper-bound limit analysis with the method of pseudo-static analysis. The soil shear strength parameters, the slope geometrical parameters (including slope inclinations, slope heights, and the slope widths), the horizontal seismic acceleration coefficient, and the unit weight of soil masses were considered as random variables. The influences of their uncertainty degrees, the correlation relations, and the distribution types of random variables on probabilistic density functions, failure probabilities, and sensitivity analysis were discussed. It was shown that the uncertainty degrees greatly impact the probability density distributions of critical slope heights, the computed failure probabilities, and Sobol’ index, and the horizontal seismic coefficient was the second most important variable compared to the soil shear strength parameters.

Telemammography for breast cancer screening: a cost-effective approach in Argentina

ObjectivesArgentina is a low and middle-income country (LMIC) with a highly fragmented healthcare system that conflicts with access to healthcare stated by the country’s Universal Health Coverage plan. A tele-mammography network could improve access to breast cancer screening decreasing its mortality. This research aims to conduct an economic evaluation of the implementation of a tele-mammography program to improve access to healthcare.MethodsA cost-utility analysis was performed to explore the incremental benefit of annual tele-mammography screening for at-risk Argentinian women over 40 years old. A Markov model was developed to simulate annual mammography or tele-mammography screening in two hypothetical population-based cohorts of asymptomatic women. Parameter uncertainty was evaluated through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Model structure uncertainty was also explored to test the robustness of the results.ResultsIt was estimated that 31 out of 100 new cases of breast cancer would be detected by mammography and 39/100 by tele-mammography. The model returned an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £26 051/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) which is lower than the WHO-recommended threshold of £26 288/QALY for Argentina. Deterministic sensitivity analysis showed the ICER is most sensitive to the uptake and sensitivity of the screening tests. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed tele-mammography is cost-effective in 59% of simulations.DiscussionTele-mammography should be considered for adoption as it could improve access to expertise in underserved areas where adherence to screening protocols is poor. Disaggregated data by province is needed for a better- informed policy decision. Telemedicine could also be beneficial in ensuring the continuity of care when health systems are under stress like in the current COVID-19 pandemic.ConclusionThere is a 59% chance that tele-mammography is cost-effective compared to mammography for at-risk Argentinian women over 40- years old, and should be adopted to improve access to healthcare in underserved areas of the country.

Is concurrent intravenous alteplase in patients undergoing endovascular treatment for large vessel occlusion stroke cost-effective even if the cost of alteplase is only US$1?

BackgroundThe added value of intravenous (IV) alteplase in large vessel occlusion (LVO) stroke over and beyond endovascular treatment (EVT) is controversial. We compared the long-term costs and cost-effectiveness of a direct-to-EVT paradigm in LVO stroke patients presenting directly to the mothership hospital to concurrent EVT and IV alteplase.MethodsWe used a decision model consisting of a short-run model to analyze costs and functional outcomes within 90 days after the index stroke and a long-run Markov state transition model (cycle length of 12 months) to estimate expected lifetime costs and outcomes. Outcome data were from the DIRECT-MT trial (NCT03469206). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net monetary benefits were calculated and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Analysis was performed from a healthcare perspective and a societal perspective using both a minimal assumed alteplase cost of US$1 and true alteplase cost.ResultsWhen assuming a minimal cost of alteplase of $1, EVT with concurrent IV alteplase resulted in incremental lifetime cost of $5664 (healthcare perspective)/$4804 (societal perspective) and a decrement of 0.25 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with EVT only, indicating dominance of the EVT only approach. Net monetary benefits were consistently higher for EVT only compared with EVT with concurrent alteplase. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed increased costs without an increase in QALYs for EVT and concurrent IV alteplase compared with EVT only. Results were even more in favor of EVT when the true cost of alteplase was used for analysis.ConclusionEVT without concurrent alteplase is the preferred strategy from a health economic standpoint.

Exploring the Appropriate Price of Semaglutide for Type 2 Diabetes Patients Based on Cost-Utility Analysis in China

Introduction: Semaglutide is the first and only oral version of a glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue approved by the FDA for the treatment of type 2 diabetes (T2D). This research was designed to explore the appropriate price of once-weekly (OW) semaglutide for T2D patients in China based on cost-utility analysis.Methods: The baseline patient cohorts of OW semaglutide and once-daily (OD) empagliflozin were sourced from a patient-level meta-analysis integrating the SUSTAIN 2, SUSTAIN 3, SUSTAIN 8 and PIONEER 2 trials. The long-term health and economic outcomes were simulated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcome Model 2 from the Chinese healthcare provider’s perspective. The appropriate price of semaglutide was explored by binary search. One-way sensitivity analysis (one-way SA), probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis were applied to solve the uncertainty.Results: Under the assumption that the annual cost of semaglutide is equal to that of OD empagliflozin, OW semaglutide was superior to OD empagliflozin due to its higher quality adjusted life years and lower total costs. After binary search, the incremental cost-utility ratio of OW semaglutide vs. OD empagliflozin was approximately equal to 3λ with an annual cost of semaglutide of $1,007.18 and approximately equal to λ with an annual cost of semaglutide of $708.11. Subsequently, the incremental cost-utility ratio of OW semaglutide vs. OD empagliflozin was approximately 3λ and λ, with annual costs of semaglutide of $877.43 and $667.04, respectively, adjusted by one-way SA. Ultimately, the cost-utility results with annual costs of semaglutide of $877.43 and $667.04 were robust to probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis.Conclusion: In conclusion, the annual cost of semaglutide appears to be appropriate between $667.04 and $877.43 for T2D patients in China.