scholarly journals Leaning against the Wind and Crisis Risk

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-214
Author(s):  
Moritz Schularick ◽  
Lucas ter Steege ◽  
Felix Ward
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Advanced Economy ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Financial Cycles ◽  
Leaning Against The Wind

Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on financial crisis risk. Based on the near-universe of advanced economy financial cycles since the nineteenth century, we show that discretionary leaning against the wind policies during credit and asset price booms are more likely to trigger crises than prevent them. (JEL E43, E44, E52, E58, F33)

Lässt sich die Geldschöpfung der Geschäftsbanken noch kontrollieren? – Geldpolitik seit der jüngsten Finanzkrise 2007/2008

2018 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Mathias Binswanger
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Past ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis

Zusammenfassung: Als Folge der jüngsten Finanzkrise ist der Einfluss der Zentralbanken auf die Geldschöpfung weitgehend verloren gegangen. Denn die Kontrolle über Reserven funktioniert nur solange, wie diese knapp sind und deren Bezug an bestimmte Bedingungen geknüpft werden kann. Seither halten die Geschäftsbanken in den ökonomisch wichtigsten Ländern de facto dermaßen viele Reserven, dass sie nicht mehr auf die jeweilige Zentralbank angewiesen sind. Diese Entwicklung lässt sich sowohl für die FED als auch für die EZB aufzeigen. Dies führt zu geldpolitisch neuen Herausforderungen, die bisher kaum beachtet wurden. Die Einflussmöglichkeit der Zentralbanken auf den Geldschöpfungsprozess der Geschäftsbanken wurde noch nie in so großem Stil ausgehebelt. Deshalb müssen Zentralbanken in Zukunft ihr Repertoire an geldpolitischen Massnahmen erweitern. Nur mit dem Drehen an der Zinsschraube wird man den Geldschöpfungsprozess in Zukunft kaum mehr in gewünschter Weise beeinflussen können. Summary: As a result of the recent financial crisis, the influence of central banks on money creation has largely disappeared. Controlling this process only works as long as money creation of commercial banks also leads to a need for additional reserves from the central bank. However, the large asset purchase programs of monetary authorities after the financial crises resulted in an enormous increase in reserves at commercial banks. Therefore, commercial banks have enough reserves to create additional money at large amounts and do not depend on central banks any more. This development is indicative for both the FED and the ECB. Therefore central banks face the challenge how they can restore their influence on the process of money creation. Just lowering or increasing interest rates, which was the major way of conducting monetary policy in the past, will not work anymore in the future.

scholarly journals CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioana Plescau
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of our paper is to analyze the conventional and unconventional monetary policy in Romania, in the context of the recent financial crisis. We study the relationship between interest rates and credit risk, but also the non-standard monetary measures that were adopted by the National Bank of Romania and their impact on the banking system. Our results point to a decrease of interest rates in the years after the crisis, which is in line with the majority of central banks that have reduced monetary rates in order to sustain the economy and the credit activity.

Conclusions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Zero Bound

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....

INFLATION TARGETING: IT'S NOT BROKE, IT DOESN'T NEED FIXING, BUT CAN IT SURVIVE?

2010 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 59-80
Author(s):  
PIERRE L. SIKLOS
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Nominal Anchor

Until the end of 2005 there were few outward signs that the inflation targeting (IT) monetary policy strategy was deemed fragile or that the likelihood of abandoning it was high. In light of the severe economic downturn and the global financial crisis that has afflicted most economies around the world since at least 2008, it is worth reconsidering the question of the fragility of the inflation targeting regime. This paper reprises the approach followed in Siklos (2008) but adds important new twists. For example, the present study asks whether the continued survival of IT is due to the fact that some of the central banks in question did take account of changes in financial stress. The answer is no. Indeed, many central banks are seen as enablers of rapid asset price increases. The lesson, however, is not that inflation targeting needs to be repaired. Instead, refinements should be considered to the existing inflation targeting strategy which has evolved considerably since it was first introduced in New Zealand 20 years ago. Most notably, there should be continued emphasis on inflation as the primary nominal anchor of monetary policy, especially in emerging market economies (EME), even if additional duties are assigned to central banks in response to recent events.

Sukuk and monetary policy transmission in Indonesia: the role of asset price and exchange rate channels

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suriani Suriani ◽  
M. Shabri Abd. Majid ◽  
Raja Masbar ◽  
Nazaruddin A. Wahid ◽  
Abdul Ghafar Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price and exchange rate channels in the Indonesian economy. Design/methodology/approach Using the monthly data from January 2003 to November 2017, this study uses a multivariate vector error correction model causality framework. To examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price channel, this study uses the variables of consumption, inflation, interest rates, economic growth and the composite stock price index. Meanwhile, to examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the exchange rate channel, this study used variables of inflation, interest rates, economic growth, foreign investment and exchange rate. Findings This study documented that sukuk has no causal relationship with inflation through asset price and exchange rate channels. Nevertheless, sukuk has a bidirectional causal relationship with economic growth through asset price and exchange rate channels. Sukuk is also documented to have a causal relationship with monetary policy variables of interest rate and stock prices through asset price and exchange rate channels. Finally, a unidirectional causality is recorded running from the exchange rate to sukuk in the exchange rate channel. Research limitations/implications The finding of independence of the sukuk market from interest rates provides evidence that the trading of the sukuk in Indonesia has been in harmony with the Islamic tenets. Practical implications The relevant Indonesian authorities need to enhance both domestic and global sukuk markets as part of efforts to promote the sustainability of Islamic capital market development in Indonesia. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first attempts to empirically investigate the role of sukuk in monetary policy transmission through asset price and exchange rate channels in the context of the Indonesian economy.

scholarly journals The Effect of FOMC Votes on Financial Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 101 (5) ◽  
pp. 921-932
Author(s):  
Carlos Madeira ◽  
João Madeira
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Federal Open Market Committee ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
Treasury Securities ◽  
Stock Market Reaction

This paper shows that since votes of members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been included in press statements, stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but fall when dissent (which typically is due to preference for higher interest rates) occurs. This pattern started prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The differences in stock market reaction between unanimity and dissent remain, even controlling for the stance of monetary policy and consecutive dissent. Statement semantics also do not seem to explain the documented effect. We find no differences between unanimity and dissent with respect to impact on market risk and Treasury securities.

scholarly journals Confidence in future monetary policy as a way to overcome the liquidity trap

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-135
Author(s):  
Olga Kuznetsova ◽  
Sergey Merzlyakov ◽  
Sergey Pekarski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Consistency ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has changed the landscape for monetary policy. Many central banks in developed economies had to employ various unconventional policy tools to overcome a liquidity trap. These included large-scale asset purchase programs, forward guidance and negative interest rate policies. While recently, some central banks were able to return to conventional monetary policy, for many countries the effectiveness of unconventional policies remains an issue. In this paper we assess diverse practices of unconventional monetary policy with a particular focus on expectations and time consistency. The principal aspect of successful policy in terms of overcoming a liquidity trap is the confidence that interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period. However, forming such expectations faces the problem of time inconsistency of optimal policy. We discuss some directions to solve this problem.

scholarly journals Regular Econometric Model of Taylor for Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Ergys Misha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Assets

The Taylor’s Rule Central Banks is applying widely today from Central Banks for design the monetary policy and for determination of interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to assess monetary policy rule in Albania, in view of an inflation targeting regime. In the first version of the Model, the Taylor’s Rule assumes that base interest rate of the monetary policy varies depending on the change of (1) the inflation rate and (2) economic growth (Output Gap).Through this paper it is proposed changing the objective of the Bank of Albania by adding a new objective, that of "financial stability", along with the “price stability”. This means that it is necessary to reassess the Taylor’s Rule by modifying it with incorporation of indicators of financial stability. In the case of Albania, we consider that there is no regular market of financial assets in the absence of the Stock Exchange. For this reason, we will rely on the credit developmet - as a way to measure the financial cycle in the economy. In this case, the base rate of monetary policy will be changed throught: (1) Targeting Inflation Rate, (2) Nominal Targeting of Economic Growth, and (3) Targeting the Gap of the Ratio Credit/GDP (mitigating the boom cycle, if the gap is positive, and the contractiocycle if the gap is negative).The research data show that, it is necessary that the Bank of Albania should also include in its objective maintaining the financial stability. In this way, the contribution expected from the inclusion of credit gap indicators in Taylor’s Rule, will be higher and sustainable in time.

scholarly journals Comparison of the Approach of the Czech National Bank and the European Central Bank to the Effects of the Global Financial Crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-46
Author(s):  
Andrea Cecrdlova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
European Central ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The latest global crisis, which fully erupted in 2008, can have a significant impact on central banks credibility in the long run. During the last crisis, monetary authorities encountered zero interest rate levels and, as a result, started to use non-standard monetary policy instruments. The Czech National Bank decided to use a less standard instrument in November 2013, when it started to intervene on the foreign exchange market in order to keep the Czech currency at level 27 CZK / EUR. However, the European Central Bank also adopted a non-standard instrument, when chose a path of quantitative easing in 2015 in order to support the euro area economy by purchasing financial assets. The question remains whether the approach of Czech National Bank or the approach of European Central Bank in the crisis and post-crisis period was a more appropriate alternative. With the passage of time from the global financial crisis, it is already possible to compare the approaches of these two central banks and at least partially assess what approach was more appropriate under the given conditions. When comparing the central banks approaches to the crisis, the Czech National Bank was better, both in terms of the rate of interest rate cuts and the resulting inflation with regard to the choice of a non-standard monetary policy instrument. The recent financial crisis has revealed the application of moral hazard in practice, both on behalf of the European Central Bank and the Czech National Bank, which may have a significant impact on their credibility and independence in the coming years.

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